Thursday 20 December 2012

Gold hits primary target

Despite the main equity indexes seeing further gains, the metals saw significant declines. Gold and Silver fell 1.2 and 3.7% respectively. The near term trend remains downward, but the intra-day bounce is suggestive that a brief floor might be in place.


GLD, daily



SLV, daily


GLD, monthly3


Summary

It has been a long time coming, but GLD broke into the 158s, and seemingly found a little buying interest.

However, lets be clear, the daily, weekly, and monthly momentum is still DOWN. Even if we get a few days of moderately higher closes, it could merely be a bear flag, with much lower levels to come.

Considering the equity market is still >sp'1400 - and my general outlook for low sp'1200s, if I'm right about equities, I can't possibly imagine GLD holding the 150s. A move into the 140s, even 130s seems viable in spring 2013.

Even worse for the metal bulls, if the US dollar starts to rally in early 2013, that will put very significant added downward pressure on both the metals..and equities.

Without question, keep your eyes on how the US dollar trades across the next 2-4 weeks.