Tuesday 22 January 2013

Metals displaying large bullish flags

Both Gold and Silver started this shortened trading week higher. The weekly charts are still displaying pretty clear large bullish flags. If that is the case, we may see a breakout in the next week or so, or put in one final small wave lower, before such a breakout.


GLD, weekly2



SLV, weekly2


Summary

The daily charts (not shown, but see recent posts) still offer the prospect of a final fifth wave lower, but even if the metals do see a little downside, the weekly/monthly charts will remain very bullish into the early summer.

The underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is already ticking higher, and we could see a major snap higher in the very near term.


Prices propped up by the Fed

With QE3 now fully underway, and the 45bn of POMO money likely making its way into the equity - and probably also the commodity markets, higher prices across most asset classes seem more probable than any of the deflationary outlooks out there.

I don't expect new historic highs for the metals this year - not least due to underlying economic weakness, but we could come kinda close, especially for Gold, which is far closer to its high, than the more industrial based - Silver.