Tuesday 30 April 2013

Bad month for the metals

Despite a continued bounce, the precious metals still closed April with very significant declines. Gold and Silver fell by 7.5 and 14.5% respectively. With key support taken out, primary trend is indeed still downward, and the rate of decline is accelerating.


GLD, monthly, bearish outlook



SLV, monthly, bearish outlook


Summary

April was one hell of a month for the precious metals market. The two day decline - which took out key support, will be remembered for some time, but...it is more likely to be merely the start of a stronger down cycle, than the end of one.
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*The ratio of decline/increase between Gold and Silver is..as usual...2:1. For every 1% Gold falls, just double it, and more likely than not, you'll know what Silver is doing.


Strange..and Naive Gold bugs

The weirdest thing about all the chatter out there in the Gold community land this past month is the notion that Aprils decline marks the end of the big down cycle.

That is some twisted thinking, not least when you stare at a monthly chart of gold or silver for more than a few seconds.

The BREAK of support has just happened, and thus it is very likely that prices have not only been confirmed to be weak..but the rate of decline is actually accelerating.
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Targets ?

GLD looks set for 120, with SLV <20...perhaps 17s.

As ever, Copper will also be a good confirmation. Right now, Copper is holding the low $3s, but any break of that, and Gold/Silver will likely see further severe drops.