Powerful monthly gains for Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver saw the strongest net monthly gains since Aug' 2013. Across the month, Gold and Silver climbed a powerful 6.3% and 10.2% respectively. Although significant, the gains only bring the metals back to levels seen last October. Immediate outlook is moderately bullish.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

Regardless of how you want to count the waves from the key 2011 top, the February gain is significant, but it does little to reverse what remains a broader downward trend.

GLD needs to clear 135 - equiv' to spot Gold $1400, before there is any hope that the floor has already been put in.

SLV needs to clear 25 - equiv' to spot Silver of $26.
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As it is, I still hold to the broader downside target of Gold $1050/950 by mid 2015.

I could be wrong, and without question, if Gold puts in a monthly close >$1500, then I'd drop my primary target

Midweek weakness

The metals saw the first weakness in over a week, with Gold and Silver seeing net daily declines of -0.9% and -2.8% respectively. Despite the falls, the broader trend remains to the upside, with strong initial support on the 200 day MA.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Not much to add. Metals are seeing a multi-week climb (although not exactly strong for Silver), and we're clearly approaching another key resistance level - the late Oct' high.
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If Gold and Silver slip back under the 200 day MA, that would be a real problem, and suggest the multi-week up wave is complete.

Gold bugs...beware!

Significant gains to start the week

Gold and Silver prices continued to see general upside, both with net daily gains of around 1.0%. The near term outlook remains bullish, with Silver putting in the sixth consecutive daily close above the important 200 day MA.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Not much to add. Clearly, near term trend is bullish, but there are multiple huge resistance walls just overhead.

Many are calling a key multi-year floor in the metals. As it is, I find that hard to believe, and I continue to seek an eventual floor in Gold around the big $1000 threshold.

Weekly gains for the metals

The precious metals climbed again this week. Although not particularly significant gains, the most important aspect is that the recent breakout on Gold has indeed held. Gold and Silver closed with net weekly gains of 0.4% and 1.6% respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

There really isn't much to add.

The one noticeable aspect this past week was that the traditional Silver/Gold ratio appears to have returned. Typically, Silver will move 1.5/2.0x the change in Gold.
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Despite the recent gains, the bigger trend is still to the downside, as better seen on the monthly charts (not shown).

A larger multi-year floor is expected no later than Q3 of 2015.

Metals battling higher

The precious metals continue their multi-week up wave, with Gold and Silver managing somewhat significant daily net gains of 1.0% and 1.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, with another $35/40 of upside viable for Gold in the immediate term.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

* It is especially interesting that the old Silver/Gold ratio of gains/losses is back. Typically, Silver will move 1.5/2.0x the Gold change. For some months that has not been the case, but that seems to have returned.
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Certainly, today's gains negate all of the Wednesday drop, and price structure on the daily cycles is a bull flag. There is clear upside of another 3% or so.
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Best guess, Gold gets stuck in the 1400s this spring, before another multi-month decline into mid 2015.

Precious metals breakout

The precious metals closed the week on a strong note, with Gold and Silver sporting net weekly gains of by 4.1% and 7.1% respectively. Gold has unquestionably broken out - cancelling a bear flag, Silver is still lagging a little, but is set to follow next week.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Gold has clearly broken out of the huge down trend. Importantly, the recent multi-week bear flag..is now nullified. Silver is still lagging, but will likely follow with a clear breakout in the next week or two.


Q. What about upside?

GLD, first target is 130/31. A weekly/monthly close >132, will open up 145/50 within a few months.

SLV, first target 23.50, then 25/26

Despite those targets, I STILL hold to the bigger downside targets, for 2015, with GLD 100, and Silver in the low teens, possibly even 12/10.
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Bullish for the miners

With the strong action in the precious metals, the miners are seeing a strong upside push. There looks to be a further 30/35% upside in the Gold miner ETF of GDX.

Gold approaching the 200 day MA

The precious metals continue a slow..but consistent climb. Gold is within 1% of testing the key 200 day MA. A weekly close >GLD $127, would be a major achievement for the gold bugs, breaking a dire period that stretches back to Feb' 2013.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*Gold and Silver closed with daily net gains of 0.9% and 1.6% respectively.
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Today was the fifth consecutive daily gain for Gold, the best series of gains since August 2012 (I think).

Silver is still just below old broken support - and lagging (relative to Gold), but looks set to break above within the next few days.

We're almost half way through the month, and barring a latter month reversal, this is starting to bode well for at least another month or two.
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I'm still highly suspicious that Gold will eventually see a lower low in 2015, but, by then, it will be much stronger on the bigger monthly charts.

Gold building gains, Silver still lagging

With the 'Yellen era' now well underway, the precious metals continue to battle upward. Gold and Silver both closed with somewhat significant gains of 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, but the broader monthly cycles remain bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Perhaps most notable, the divergence between Gold and Silver. Normally, Silver will move a factor of 1.5 to 2.0x the move in Gold. Lately, Gold is actually moving 1.5x the rate of Silver.

Silver is clearly more industrial in nature, but I have to think this unusual ratio is a problem for those who are expecting some kind of hyper 2014 gains for the metals.
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Near term trend is clearly bullish, although Silver remains under old broken support (SLV 19.50/20.00 zone).

Mid-term outlook remains bearish.

Gold holding above old broken support

The Gold ETF of GLD has broken above the 100 day MA for the first time since early November. Gold and Silver closed with net daily gains of  0.6% and 0.2% respectively.  Notably, Silver is still lagging, stuck under the old broken support.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add...the weakness in Silver is something the Gold hyper bulls should still be mindful of.

Regardless of any further strength, I remain holding to broader mid term downside..with Gold 1050/950, and Silver 12/10, but those targets might take until mid 2015 to be hit.
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Metals gain, but hold within bear flags

The precious metals saw rather significant gains this week, but remain in what are rather clear multi-month bear flags. Gold and Silver closed with net weekly gains of 1.7% and 4.5% respectively. Near term trend remains mixed, with the broader monthly trends still starkly bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

There really isn't much to note on the metals. Yes, the metals saw sig' gains this week, but in the bigger picture, the price action remains mostly 'mild chop'.

Barring a break above the 200 day MAs - currently GLD 126, and SLV 20.40s, the general direction is still weak.

Metals catch the safety bid

With the main US equity market on the slide, along with rising bond prices, the precious metals are likely catching the bid on the 'flight to safety'. Gold and Silver closed with net daily gains of 1.0% and 0.9% respectively. There is further upside viable, as long as the market remains weak.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say...we're seeing a little strength, but really, in the bigger picture it does nothing to grander trends. Gold and Silver remain old broken support. Silver especially looks weak, and vulnerable to taking out the summer 2013 lows at almost any point.

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GLD has viable upside to the 200 day MA..in the 125/127 zone...but from there..it will probably fail.

Mid term targets remain...

GOLD $1050/950..with SILVER 12/10