A rough May for the metals

Gold and Silver saw rather significant net monthly declines for May, lower by -3.5% and -2.6% respectively. Both of the precious metals look set to take out the 2013 lows, with Silver leading the way down.


Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

Suffice to say...the March candle was a clear warning of further downside.

The metals remain within very broad downward trends, the 2013 lows look set to be broken, and the only issue appears to be..when Gold test the big $1000 threshold..not 'if'.

Mid term targets remain...

Gold $1050/950...possibly 900/875..before a new multi-year ramp...to break 2k
Silver 12/10
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Metals continue to slide

With Gold breaking under key support yesterday, it was no surprise to see further declines today (if moderate). Gold and Silver closed lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is especially bearish, with further viable downside of $60 for spot gold.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

There is little to add.

The metals remain within huge multi-year down trends, and Gold looks set to eventually test the huge $1000 threshold.

Right now, I'd guess a brief break of that..into the low $900s...the golden fib of 61% is around $875 or so. It IS possible..before the next grand up wave.

Another week of moderate churn

For the precious metals, it was another week of very moderate price movement. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of  u/c and +0.3% respectively. There remains underlying weakness - not least with repeated opening gains failing, with the broader trend remaining bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say...minor chop...with underlying weakness still apparent.

The 2013 lows for both Gold and Silver look set to be broken at some point, and I'm guessing Gold will eventually see a multi-year floor in the $1000/900s.

Failed gains to begin the week

The precious metals opened Monday morning with moderate gains, but there was distinct weakness across the day, with Gold and Silver closing +0.06% and +0.11% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish, with the 2013 lows likely to be taken out at some point this year.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*I've adjusted the downward channel a little, but considering the recent price action, I still think it is indeed a downward trend.
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There is little to add, and as ever..black-fail candles are more often than not, strong warnings of weakness, so Tuesday or Wednesday should see Gold lower by $10/15 or so.

Shaky gains for the metals

The precious metals saw somewhat choppy price action across the week. The underlying weakness remains, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 0.3% and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, especially if the USD can claw higher.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Most notable aspect of the week, is arguably the closing weekly candles themselves...both Gold and Silver settled with a black candle.

As is often the case, the black-fail candles (as I like to call them), are more often than not, early warnings of a further weakness. 

Silver remains especially close to taking out the lows from 2013, and Gold isn't too far behind either. It really won't take much of a catalyst to break new lows, and I do expect them..sooner or later.
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Holding to bigger picture downside targets, Gold $1000/900s, with Silver in the low teens, perhaps even 12/10..before a grand new multi-year up wave.

Metals remain stuck under the 50 dma

Despite a day of rather significant gains, Gold and Silver remain stuck under the 50 day MA. This was especially the case for Silver, which put in a clear failure, via a black daily candle. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of 0.9% and 1.3% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Today's gains do little to alter the broader outlook, and unless we see considerably higher levels, I simply can't take today's gains seriously.
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I have little interest in trading the metals, but will merely seek to get involved - on the long side, if Gold falls to the $1000/900s..with Silver in the low teens.

A repeat of last Monday?

The metals saw gains last week, but notably, the daily candle was a black-fail candle. Today, the metals again opened higher, but closed somewhat under the opening levels. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of 0.6% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Today very much looks like a repeat of last week. Tuesday could well see minor chop..but I would most certainly look for a sharp mover lower either Wed' or Thursday.

Silver remains very close to taking out the 2013 lows, with Gold near the key GLD 122 threshold. If that fails to hold, then a quick $40/50 drop on Gold.

Weekly declines for Gold and Silver

Whilst the main US capital markets saw moderate chop, there was some renewed weakness in the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.7% and -1.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly weak.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say...the metals remain broadly weak. This is especially the case for Silver, which is very close to taking out the 2013 lows.

I am holding to the broader downside target of Gold $1000/900s..before a multi-year floor is in..and that might take another year to be hit.

Monday was indeed a warning

The daily candles for Gold and Silver on Monday were of the black-fail type, and indeed, we have duly seen renewed weakness. Gold and Silver closed significantly lower, -1.4% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, and the 2013 lows are still on track to be taken out this year.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

I drone on a great deal about the importance of the black-fail, or hollow-red reversal candles. As I noted on Monday, those opening gains appeared very likely the high of the week..and today's decline was certainly not surprising.

The big issue now is whether GLD will break the 122s, if so..another $40/50 decline for spot gold will occur..along with $1 or so lower for spot Silver.

Gains to start the week

With equities starting the week on a down note (at least briefly), the precious metals jumped at the open. As general market sentiment calmed a little, the metals cooled, with Gold and Silver seeing net daily gains of 0.95% and 0.86% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The one notable aspect is the daily black-fail candle, and those rarely work out well for the bulls.

With Yellen due to speak to the US congress/senate this Wed/Thursday, there remains the very viable chance that today was the high of the week for the metals.

As ever..those black-fail candles are not to be dismissed lightly.

A choppy week for the metals

Gold and Silver saw some significant gains for Friday, but across the week, it was mostly a case minor chop, with net weekly declines of -0.3% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains mixed, with the broader trend still to the downside.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Most notable aspect of the week, Silver breaking the Dec'2013 low, although the July low of 17.75 is still holding.

The Friday surge - on news of social unrest in the Ukraine, was again a good example of how the metals can quickly catch a 'flight to safety' bid.

Yet, once a given issue fades from the market's (overly) short memory, the gains are usually lost.
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I am holding to long term targets, with Gold eventually seeing a multi-year floor somewhere in the $1050/950 zone. The $900/875 zone (61% fib retrace) is just about possible, but that sure won't be easy.

A red start to May

The precious metals started a new month on a weak note, with Gold and Silver closing off the lows, -0.4% and -0.6% respectively. Silver remains especially weak, having broken the lows from late Dec, all that remains are the July 2013 low of 17.75.


GLD,daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, another lousy start to a new month for the metals.

Seasonally, a typical low would be in August, so we are probably looking at a further 4 months of weakness. Whether that will be enough time to knock Gold to the giant $1000 threshold, that is very difficult to say.

Regardless of the near term, broader trend IS bearish, and I do indeed seek Gold in the low $1000s, before we see a key multi-year floor.