Friday 1 April 2016

Continuing to broadly retrace

Despite the weakening USD, the precious metals are continuing a short term retrace of the gains from Dec'2015-Feb'. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.5% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further weakness, before likely powerful mid term upside resumes.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly


Summary

It could certainly be argued that considering the weakening USD, the precious metals are actually under-performing lately.

However, it should have been clear at the start of the year, that the precious metals were catching a powerful 'fear bid'.. as world capital markets were increasingly upset for a great many varied reasons.

Considering the powerful breakout seen across Jan/Feb', it would seem very reasonable to expect once this moderate retrace is complete - within weeks, if not days, the metals will resume higher.. and at an accelerated rate.

First key upside for Gold is the $1300 threshold. Things really only get interesting with a monthly close in the $1400s. 
 
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*I am seeking to be long Gold - via GLD, and long the related mining stocks - via GDX, in the near term.