Powerful net monthly gains

February was arguably the most important month for the precious metals since the decisive break (April 2013) of the rising trend that stretched back a full decade. Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $116.00 (10.4%) @ $1234.40, and $0.64 (4.5%) @ $14.90 respectively. Near term outlook threatens a little cooling, before viable hyper upside this spring.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, we have clear breaks of the declining trend that stretches back to the 2011 highs

The US/world capital markets remain increasingly twitchy, and there is no doubt the precious metals are regularly catching a strong 'fear-bid'.

Near term threatens Gold $1180 or so... but from there... first upside target is the $1300 threshold.

Things only get 'real interesting' if Gold can soar to $1500 by late summer.

*whether Gold $1300.. or higher, the implications are very bullish for the related mining stocks.

Metals continue to cool

With the broader US capital market increasingly confident, the precious metals are losing their fear bid, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -0.5% and -4.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers further cooling into mid March, but from there.. things will likely resume powerfully higher.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, a few weeks of cooling is very natural, having seen a key break above the declining downward trend.

Near term downside in Gold to $1180/70.. equating GLD 113/112.

Broader upside into April/May... Gold $1300, equating to GLD 125
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*I will look to be long gold - via GLD, in mid March... and broadly hold long into early summer.

Precious metals cooling

With US/world capital markets seeing renewed confidence, the precious metals lost some of their fear-bid, and have started to retrace. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.7% and -2.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers further cooling for a few weeks, before viable hyper upside across the spring.


GLD, weekly2

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, having climbed for four consecutive weeks, a week or two of cooling is to be considered rather natural.

Regardless of any further near term cooling, Gold looks set for the $1300 threshold this spring. Whether that is just another tease to the gold bugs... difficult to say, although the mid-term bearish trend has unquestionably been broken.

A fourth week of gains

With US/world capital markets continuing to remain broadly upset, the precious metals are increasingly catching a classic fear-bid. Gold and Silver climbed for a fourth consecutive week, with net weekly gains of 5.4% and 4.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, before resuming powerfully higher.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*since its the weekend... and considering the recent powerful gains, I wanted to also highlight the giant monthly cycles....

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

It is notable that the above two charts are using a log' scale. Things do look less bullish on a linear/arithmetic scale. However, the past few weeks of price action do merit serious consideration that a major floor was actually achieved in Dec'2015.
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Best guess: mid term upside in Gold to around $1300 - where the monthly upper bollinger is lurking. What happens then... very difficult to say.

Breaking the downward trend from 2011

The last two days of gains have resulted in a provisional break of the downward trend that stretches back almost a full five years. Gold and Silver saw powerful net daily gains of 4.0% and 3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a retrace, but the mid/long term trends are finally turning bullish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*I'll post the monthly charts tomorrow.
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Suffice to add, a powerfully bullish day for the precious metals.

Reasons for the ramp?

1. USD weakness
2. Fear-bid, as US/world capital markets remain broadly upset
3. Technical, as we have a clear multi-year break... leading to renewed interest.
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*I will strongly consider going long GLD on the next pull back... that might take 4-7 days to complete.

Next big target for Gold is the $1300 threshold.

Powerful net weekly gains

With the USD seeing very significant sustained weakness for the majority of the week, the precious metals continued to climb for a third consecutive week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of a distinctly powerful 4.9% and 5.1% respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Clearly, very powerful gains... but across the last few years we've seen the same sort of sporadic multi-week up waves.. only to end in breaking a new multi-year low.

Gold bugs are not going to have real clarity for at least another few months, until we see at least a couple of higher highs.. AND higher lows... the broader outlook remains bearish.

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*clearly, with such powerful gains, the related mining stocks are seeing some clear upside breaks. For the moment though, whilst the broader market looks highly vulnerable to the sp'1600s this spring, I am not chasing the metals/miners higher.