Friday, 18 August 2017

The struggling metals

With less war talk between the US and the DPRK, the precious metals are starting to struggle. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, not least if the USD can push into the DXY 94s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

This morning (August 18th) saw Gold break the $1300 threshold for the first time since Nov'2016, but it couldn't hold it, as capital market confidence was regained into the afternoon.

... and for Gold/Silver, price action is often swayed by sporadic geo-political chatter.

Technically, price momentum is net positive (if only moderately) for both gold and silver. It can also be said the trend since July is on the positive side. Yet.. gold is clearly stuck around $1300, and Silver has a particularly bearish set of lower highs from April.

For now.... 'Mr Inflation' is yet to be seen, and that is naturally holding back most of the related mining stocks. 
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It remains notable that one indirect bullish signal is copper, which settled higher for a sixth consecutive week, and is very close to challenging the key $3.00 threshold.

Copper, weekly


Any weekly/monthly close for copper >$3.00, would bode bullish for gold/silver, and the related miners.

Friday, 11 August 2017

Bullish engulfing candles

The precious metals started the week on a weak note, but then caught a rather powerful 'fear bid', with Gold and Silver settling net higher by $29.40 (2.3%) to $1294.00, and $0.82 (5.0%) to $17.07 respectively. The bullish engulfing candles lean to further upside within the near term.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

First, its notable that Gold is still considerably stronger than Silver.

It has been an interesting thing to see last week's declines fully negated, with both Gold and Silver swinging powerfully upward.

A rather bullish indirect signal is via the industrial metal of copper, which is just below the very important $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close (whether August.. or beyond) >$3.00 for copper, would bode bullish for Gold and Silver. The trio generally trade together on a multi-year basis, and if copper continues to rise, its almost impossible not to see Gold and Silver follow.
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*As ever, there are implications for the related mining stocks. The mining bulls really need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

A hyper bullish mining outlook... requires Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.

Friday, 4 August 2017

Metals cooling again

The short term bullish run for the precious metals has come to an end, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -$10.70 (0.8%) to $1264.60, and -$0.44 (2.6%) to $16.25 respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with Silver leading the way lower. 


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, with the USD ending the week with a bounce (partly inspired by the jobs data), the precious metals are under some significant downward pressure.

Silver is particularly bearish, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gold remains within the mid term bullish trend from Dec'2015.

The one indirect bullish aspect... copper, which recently broke above key resistance of $2.70, and is currently close to the key $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close >$3.00 would eventually suggest Gold and Silver will eventually catch up.

Friday, 28 July 2017

A third week of gains

The precious metals of Gold and Silver climbed for a third consecutive week, settling higher by +$13.50 (1.1%) to $1268.40, and +$0.24 (1.4%) to $16.69 respectively. Short term momentum is bullish, but any degree of bounce in the USD, will put significant renewed downward pressure on the metals.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

First, a special note on the USD, weekly cycle...



The settling candle saw a minor spike low precisely on core support of the DXY 93.00 threshold. If the USD has seen a short term floor, the pressure will on the metals next week, and across much of August.

Unlike some out there, not least the infamous 'dollar doomers', I see the USD eventually pushing to the DXY 120s. That of course would be severely deflationary to the metals. In any case, near term bullish USD, so long as the 93s hold!
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As for the metals, we've seen four distinct multi-week rallies this year, most of which exhausted themselves within 3-5 weeks. Frankly, the metals look very vulnerable next week/early August, not least if the USD can claw back into the DXY 94s.

To be confident, the gold bugs need to see Gold and Silver break above their April/June highs.

For broader mid/long term confidence, the summer 2016 highs need to be cleared. To be decisive, Gold $1400s.. and Silver $22s.
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As ever... feel free to leave a comment.

Extra charts on the metals, and related miner stocks @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Friday, 21 July 2017

Climbing for a second week

The precious of Gold and Silver climbed for a second week, with net weekly gains of $27.40 (2.3%) to $1254.90, and $0.52 (3.3%) to $16.46 respectively. Despite the gains, near term outlook is shaky, as any rebound in the USD from the DXY 93s will put renewed downward pressure on anything within commodity land.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a second consecutive significant net weekly gain for Gold and Silver. However, Silver remains a particular problem, having been sustainably trading under old support since early June.

Clearly, a large part of the recent bounce in the metals is due to the US dollar's continued weakness from the DXY 95s to the 93s. 

Right now, its a struggle to be bullish Gold or Silver. Arguably, the cautious will wait to chase until the April and/or June highs are traded back above.
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As ever, price action in Gold and Silver will have massive implications for the related mining stocks. Even if the main equity market continues upward to the sp'2600/700s by year end, it will count for nothing if Gold or Silver are at current levels... or worse.

*there is an FOMC next Wednesday. Even though no policy change is expected, such 'fed' days will often see big moves in the precious metals. If the USD does see a bounce next week - as seems probable, Gold and Silver will be back on the slide.

Friday, 14 July 2017

A weekly bounce

After five consecutive net weekly declines, Gold and Silver finally caught a bounce, settling with net weekly gains of $17.80 (1.5%) and $0.51 (3.3%) respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further upward, but broadly, the precious metals look very vulnerable, not least as the USD will be prone for a bounce before end month.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Cyclically, despite the weekly gains, both gold and silver are seeing underlying weekly price momentum continue to tick lower.

Silver remains far weaker than gold, having been sustainably under old support since early June. 

Its very difficult to see how Gold and Silver can be expected to see any sig' strength until at least after August, which is seasonally a somewhat weak period.

Further, if the USD bounces by just 1 or 2% into end July/early August, the metals will be under renewed 'natural' currency pressure.

Outlook: bearish, with Gold being lead lower by Silver.

Friday, 7 July 2017

A very bearish week

It was a very bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -$32.60 (2.6%) and -$1.20 (7.2%) respectively. Notably, Silver has broken well below the Dec'2016 low, and (in theory) it bodes badly for Gold... and the related mining stocks.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for Gold and Silver, the most bearish run since late 2015, just before Gold/Silver floored.

The Silver weekly candle even highlights what was an effective flash-crash on Friday. Unquestionably, a large part of it was technical, as the Dec'2016 was broken, that will have initiated a great number of mid/long term trading stops.
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A special highlight of the bigger monthly cycles...

Gold, monthly1c



Silver, monthly1c


Suffice to add, Silver is leading the way lower... gold can be expected to follow.

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As ever, extra charts on the metals... and other things @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Friday, 30 June 2017

A bearish June

It was a pretty bearish month for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net June declines of -$33.10 (2.6%) to $1242.30, and -$0.78 (4.5%) to $16.63 respectively. Near term outlook is leaning weak.


Gold, monthly



Silver, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, it was certainly a difficult month for the precious metals, and related mining stocks.

Keep in mind the USD, which has been in cooling mode since a bearish break in late April. Indeed, when you consider the weak USD, the precious metals are actually weaker than on first look.

Dr Copper is an indirect bullish sign, as its close to breaking and holding above the key $2.70 threshold.

Friday, 23 June 2017

A week of moderate swings

It was a week of moderate swings for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The mid term outlook is increasingly borderline, as the broader commodity complex remains under downward pressure.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

It was effectively a flat week for the precious metals, after two prior weeks of sig' declines.

Was this week just a pause before renewed downside? Or do have a marginally higher low - relative to early May?

Either Gold and Silver are going to turn very bearish with a break under the May low, or they're going to eventually break above the April high. We'll know the answer soon enough.

Yours truly is especially concerned about Gold, whose MACD (blue bar histogram) weekly cycle is set to turn negative into end June.
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As ever.. price action in Gold and Silver will have big implications for the related mining stocks. Its notable that this week, the sector ETF of GDX saw another fractional break of core rising trend - that extends back to Jan'2016.

Friday, 16 June 2017

A second week lower

The precious metals of Gold and Silver declined for a second consecutive week, settling net lower by -1.0% and -3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens further weakness, especially in Gold. Mid term outlook is increasingly uncertain, as Silver and the related miners broke core rising trend in early May.


GLD weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Gold/GLD: note the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. Its set to turn negative before end June. If that does occur, it will bode for significantly lower levels this summer.

Silver/SLV: Silver has been far weaker than gold since the big turn in Dec'2015. Last week saw a key lower high put in - relative to April, and now its a case of whether the May low ($15.21) is taken out.

Best guess... it sure ain't looking so bullish for the precious metals. Leaning bearish.

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*As ever, how the precious metals trade will have massive implications for the related mining stocks. Its notable that the ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, with another borderline break under core rising trend that extends back to the multi-year low of Jan'2016.

Friday, 9 June 2017

Mixed week for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver ended the week on a rather negative note, which made for net weekly declines of -0.9% and -1.9% respectively. Gold remains stronger than Silver, having broken (if briefly) the April highs, and stalling at the $1300 threshold. Near term outlook offers a little weakness, but mid term outlook remains bullish.


GLD, weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, the weekly candles sure didn't settle bullish, but then the previous 3/4 weeks were rather bullish.

The $1300 threshold is very natural resistance for Gold, and regardless of any further weak-chop next week, I remain leaning bullish commodities for the mid/long term.

Unless the mid term bullish trends - from Dec'2015 are broken and held under, the mid term bullish outlook is justified.

*related mining stocks are also leaning bullish.

Friday, 2 June 2017

Week four for Gold and Silver

The precious metals ended the week on a rather bullish note, which resulted in net weekly gains for Gold and Silver of 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside, as the mid term bullish outlook is back on track, after a very bearish late April/early May.


GLD weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, May saw a rather strong recovery, and we're seeing further strength in early June.

First big target are the April highs. Any closes for GLD >$123.07 and SLV >$17.60, will open the door to a challenge of the summer 2016 highs.

The grander target is GLD 131, and SLV 19.70s.

In terms of raw-spot prices, things become massively bullish with Gold >$1400, and Silver in the $22s.

Wednesday, 31 May 2017

Mixed month for Gold and Silver

It was a mixed month for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Early May saw Silver break under core rising trend, but the month did end on a somewhat positive note. Mid term outlook remains leaning bullish, but its important to the bullish case, for the metals to break above the summer 2016 highs before year end.


Gold, monthly



Silver, monthly



Summary

Gold is comfortably holding its mid term upward trend from Dec'2015.

Silver's break of rising trend in early May was pretty bearish, but the monthly close was somewhat positive, as the May candle shows, via a spike, indicative of a floor.

The cautious will wait to chase the precious metals, until Gold $1400s, and Silver is in the $22s. Is that possible by late summer 2017? Sure, and if the USD does cool to the DXY 93/92s, that would really help.

Friday, 26 May 2017

A third weekly gain

The precious metals ended the week on a positive note, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 0.9% and 2.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is leaning bullish, but for confidence, the gold bugs need Gold $1400s and Silver $22s.


GLD, weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a third consecutive net weekly gain for both Gold and Silver. The more industrial Silver is racing to negate the recent break of core rising trend.

Indeed, the recent break of core rising trend in Silver - which was also seen in the related gold/silver miners, was a serious technical break. Yet this third weekly gain has really helped to negate the break.

What should matter to those looking for much higher levels, is that Gold and Silver break the April highs this summer. If that can be done, the door will re-open for a challenge to the summer 2016 highs.

Things will turn hyper-bullish with Gold $1400s and Silver in the $22s. 

I'm certainly leaning to the bullish side.
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For extra charts (usually after 7pm EST each day), see https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Friday, 19 May 2017

Metals bouncing back

With the US capital market getting a little upset midweek, the precious metals caught an outright fear bid. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.2% and 2.4% respectively. Gold remains notably stronger than the more industrial Silver.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Further weakness in the USD (DXY 97s) certainly helped give the precious metals an extra kick higher this week.

Even though the capital market saw a recovery in mood/sentiment across Thurs/Friday, the metals still held most of the gains.

Most notable is that Silver is back above core rising trend/support. A few closes above the key 10MA (currently in the mid $16s) would give some confidence that last week's break was a fake out to the deflationists.

Friday, 12 May 2017

Another bearish week

It was another rather bearish week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of -0.1% and +0.4% respectively. The weekly candles were somewhat spiky, and threaten upside into end May. The May close will be especially important for Silver and the related miners which recently broke core rising trend.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Last week was a particularly bearish week for the precious metals.

This week saw new cycle lows, but the latter part of the week did see some some degree of recovery, especially in Silver, which managed a moderate net weekly gain.

What matters now is whether the metals can claw upward, and turn net positive for the month. That would help to negate the key breaks of trend as seen in Silver and the miners last week.

yours.. still leaning bullish, but the situation is at least somewhat 'borderline'.

Friday, 5 May 2017

Silver breaks mid term support

It was a very bearish week for the precious metals, with net weekly declines for Gold and Silver of -3.1% and -4.9% respectively. Near term outlooks offers a bounce, but the break of mid term rising trend in Silver - and the related miners, bodes badly for Gold.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

There was some serious carnage in commodity land this week, especially within the precious metals.

Whilst Gold broke first soft rising support, Silver broke the core rising support that extends back to the Dec'2015 low. This is a serious technical break, and the fact its been confirmed with a similar break in the Gold miners, does bode badly for Gold.

Unless there is a very significant rebound into end May, the mid term outlook for Silver will have to turn outright bearish, and Gold could be presumed to follow within another 1-2 months.

*for the record, my guess is we will see a rebound.

Friday, 28 April 2017

Metals cool into end month

It was a mixed month for the precious metals. First half gains were sharply reversed, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of +$17.10 (1.4%) to $1268.30, and -$0.99 (5.4%) to $17.26 respectively. Near term outlook is choppy, whilst the mid term bullish trend remains intact.


Gold, monthly



Silver, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, it was a pretty mixed month for the precious metals. Gold saw a high of $1297.40, with Silver maxing out at $18.66. There sure was some distinct cooling in the second half of the month, arguably largely due to the renewed confidence in the US capital market.

Underlying price pressure remains net positive for both metals, and on balance, I'm looking for another major push higher across the summer.

The obvious first big targets are the summer 2016 highs of Gold $1377 and Silver $21s.

Any weekly/monthly close for Gold >$1400 and Silver in the $22s, would be exceptionally bullish, and offer a grander run to challenge the 2011 historic highs.

It really is a case of whether you believe in the inflationary scenario, or a renewed deflationary wave with a recession before end 2017.

Yours truly is leaning on the former.

Friday, 21 April 2017

Net weekly declines

It was a bearish week for the precious metals, with net weekly declines for Gold and Silver of -0.3% and -3.0% respectively. Gold is still catching a 'fear bid' relative to the more industrial Silver. The upward trend that began from the multi-year low of Dec'2015 remains intact, and the mid term outlook is bullish.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a week of cooling for the metals, but the mid term bullish trend remains comfortable intact.

Key levels.. Gold $1300, and the summer 2016 high of $1377.50.

What should be clear, any price action in the $1400s would be extremely bullish for Gold, and even more so.. for the related mining stocks.

Thursday, 13 April 2017

Strong week for Gold and Silver

It was a very bullish week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 2.6% and 2.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, as both metals have now broken the Feb' highs. The next big target are the summer 2016 highs. Gold $1400s and Silver $22s appear due.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

The precious metals are being pushed upward by a number of factors. First, there are the various geo-political concerns. Gold is always going to pick up a 'fear bid' on any kind of 'spooky news'. Just yesterday (April 12th), we had President Trump who was overtly calling for a weaker USD. By default.. a weaker USD is bullish for Gold and Silver.

It should be clear, the mid term trend - that links the Dec'2015 and Dec'2016 lows is comfortably intact. With the Feb' highs broken above, the door is open to Gold $1300s and Silver $19s in the near term. Things really get real interesting with a break to Gold $1400s and Silver $22s. 

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If you've an interest in the precious metals... and related mining stocks, then pick up my latest report...


see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

Friday, 7 April 2017

Mixed week for the metals

With the 'Syria situation', the precious metals caught some degree of 'fear bid', but that largely faded into the weekend. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.6% and -1.3% respectively. Most notable, Gold has (briefly) broken above the Feb' high, Silver looks set to follow. The mid term bullish trend remains intact.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

With the US launching an overnight attack on Syria, the precious metals both jumped overnight. We saw Gold to $1273.30, and Silver to $18.49. However, the US capital market remains exceptionally confident. The overnight 'fear bid' gains largely faded for Gold, and Silver even settled significantly lower.

Both Gold and Silver are making an attempt to break and hold above the February highs. The weekly candles are pretty spiky on the upper end, and its possible we'll just churn for a few weeks, before a more concerted attempt to push upward.

In either case, those bullish the metals - and the related miners, have no reason to be concerned unless core rising trend (that links the Jan'2016 and Dec'2016 lows) are taken out. In the case of GLD, that will be around $110 in early May, and for SLV... $15.50. Those levels are considerably below current prices.

I am holding to something of an inflationary outlook. I am seeking the summer 2016 highs to be taken out. For decisive 'hyper bullish' clarity, I want to see Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, Copper >$3.00. The related mining ETF of GDX would need to see the $32s.

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If you've an interest in the miners, pick up my latest report!



see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

Monday, 3 April 2017

Gold leaning upward

Gold has begun a new month and the second quarter, on a moderately positive note. The precious metals Gold ETF of GLD settled net higher by 0.5% to $119.28. There is soft resistance around the $120.00 threshold. Mid term outlook remains bullish.


GLD, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, March ended on a slightly bearish note, but the mid term trend remains bullish. A weekly close >$120 seems due within the next 1-3 weeks.

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For those with an interest in the related miners, issue 2 of a Gold Miners Report is now available.



see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html