Friday, 13 October 2017

Significant weekly gains

It was a bullish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly gains of $29.70 (2.3%) to $1304.60, and $0.62 (3.7%) to $17.41 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside, not least if the USD resumes lower, or on geo-political upset.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add... the metals are leaning upward, with gold notably stronger than silver.

Copper remains a powerfully bullish indirect signal. If copper can keep clawing upward, its near impossible not to see Gold, Silver, and the related miners eventually follow.

Key thresholds: Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, Copper $3.00 (achieved).

If gold and silver can meet those thresholds, it will have very bullish mid/long term implications for the related mining stocks.

Friday, 6 October 2017

A mixed week for gold and silver

It was a mixed week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly changes of -$9.90 (0.8%) to $1274.90, and +$0.11 (0.7%) to $16.79 respectively. Near term outlook offers some chop, but high threat of renewed upside, not least if the USD resumes lower, or on geo-political upset.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Gold: a fourth consecutive net weekly decline. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has turned fractionally negative for the first time since late July. First soft support is at $1220/10. Core rising trend from Dec'2015 currently offers support in the $1180s.

Silver: a moderate net weekly gain, and notably still lagging gold and copper. Underlying MACD cycle remains fractionally positive. Things really only turn bullish if the Feb/April highs are broken back above, and that is at least 2-3 months away.
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*it remains the case that copper is leading gold and silver. The August copper settlement >$3.00 was very bullish, and bodes that Gold and Silver will eventually catch up.

Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22s, and Copper $3.00 (achieved).

Friday, 29 September 2017

The metals cool in September

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -$37.40 (2.8%) to $1284.80, and -$0.90 (5.1%) to $16.68 respectively. Near term outlook offers some weak chop, but high threat of renewed upside, not least if the USD resumes lower, or on geo-political upset.


Gold monthly1b



Silver monthly1b



Summary

Suffice to add, it was a bearish September for gold and silver, but broadly... the metals have both been churning across the year. Gold is clearly stronger than Silver.

Key thresholds for 'bullish confidence': Gold $1400, Silver $22, Copper $3.00 (achieved)
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Keep in mind copper, which despite settling net lower for Sept' by -4.6% to $2.95, that doesn't negate the powerfully bullish August close >$3.00. The trio of gold, silver, and copper do trade together across the years...


... and copper is suggestive gold and silver will eventually catch up into 2018.

Friday, 22 September 2017

A second week lower

The precious metals saw a second week of cooling. Gold and Silver settled sig' lower by -$27.70 (2.1%) to $1297.50, and -$0.72 (4.0%) to $16.98 respectively. Near term outlook offers a little chop, but high threat of renewed upside, not least if the USD resumes lower, or on geo-political upset.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

So, a second week lower. Most notable was Gold settling the week under the psy level of $1300. That should concern the gold bugs at least a little!

Note the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles. Gold and Silver both ticked lower for a second week. At the current rate, a bearish cross will be due at the Monday Oct'2nd open.

Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22s.
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Copper continues to offer a strong indirect bullish signal.



Copper settled net lower for a third consecutive week, but the August settlement >$3.00 was an exceptionally bullish aspect. So long as copper holds above rising trend (currently around $2.70), the outlook is bullish.

Friday, 15 September 2017

Gold and Silver cooling

After three weeks of rather strong gains, the precious metals saw a week of cooling. Gold and Silver settled sig' lower by -$26.00 (1.9%) to $1325.20, and -$0.42 (2.3%) to $17.70 respectively. Near term outlook offers a little chop ahead of the Sept'20th FOMC, before resuming upward.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Its notable the USD - a key variable, settled net higher for the week, +0.4% to DXY 91.65. In the scheme of things, its a small gain, and certainly can't account for more than a fraction of this week's declines in gold and silver.

As ever.. few things go straight up. For now, Gold and Silver are holding a rather strong upward trend from the July lows of $1204 and $14.24. Gold is already close to the summer 2016 high, whilst silver is lagging... yet to clear the Feb/April highs.

An indirect bullish aspect for gold and silver is copper, which saw a powerful bullish August close above the $3.00 threshold.



Copper is leading the way, and unless it breaks back under rising trend - currently around $2.70, gold and silver can be expected to follow, and broadly climb into early 2018.

Saturday, 9 September 2017

A third week higher

It was another week of gains for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net gains of $20.80 (1.6%) to $1351.20, and $0.31 (1.7%) to $18.12. Near term outlook is bullish, especially for Gold. Silver is still battling to clear the Feb/April highs.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Suffice to note, the weakness in the USD is unquestionably helping push the metals upward.

USD, weekly


With the DXY 93 threshold failing to hold as support, the next big level are the 88/87s. Even at the current rate of decline, that won't be seen until at least the very tail end of the year.
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Gold and Silver are seeing a strong run from the early July lows. Gold is catching (naturally) a particularly strong fear bid, and is close to the summer 2016 high of $1377.50. Silver is still lagging, yet to break the Feb/April highs.

A bullish indirect indicator is copper, which saw a powerfully bullish August settlement above the key $3.00 threshold.


Despite weakness into the weekend - with a notable bearish engulfing weekly candle, copper does bode bullish for Gold and Silver in the weeks and months ahead. The view is only dropped if copper <2.75... and that number is raised each week.

Friday, 1 September 2017

A second week higher

The precious metals climbed for a second consecutive week, with Gold and Silver settling net higher by $32.50 (2.5%) to $1330.40, and $0.77 (4.5%) to $17.82 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to challenge the summer 2016 highs.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, September has started on a positive note. More broadly, Gold remains much stronger than Silver, having achieved a decisive monthly close above the $1300 threshold - above the April/June high. Silver is still lagging, well below the Feb/April high.

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A powerful indirect signal for Gold and Silver is copper, which has just recently achieved the first monthly close >$3.00 since Aug'2014.

Copper, gold, silver - monthly, 10yr


The trio of Gold, Silver, and Copper trade broadly together across the years, and copper is unquestionably leading the way higher.

Thursday, 31 August 2017

August gains

It was a second consecutive month of gains for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net August gains of $48.80 (3.8%) to $1322.20, and $0.79 (4.7%) to $17.58. Notably, copper is leading the way, with gold following, and silver still trailing.


Gold monthly



Silver monthly



Summary

Its still a bit of a mixed picture for the precious metals. The monthly close in Gold above the $1300 threshold is rather bullish, yet that is still well below the summer 2016 highs. Silver is still struggling, and notably saw a flash-print of $14.34 just last month.

For bullish clarity, the infamous 'gold bugs' need Gold >$1400, and Silver >$22.


Supportive of that scenario is ongoing strength within copper.

Copper, monthly...


The August close of $3.10, is the highest monthly close since August 2014.. a full three years ago. Short term, copper is over-stretched. It would be no surprise to see the $3.00 threshold tested a few times across Sept/October.

The grander issue is that Gold, Silver, and Copper do broadly trade together on a multi-year basis, and with copper seeing a very bullish August, it leans to further upside in Gold and Silver into the autumn.

Of course, if the North Korea situation turns 'hot', gold (and to some extent, silver) would gain a powerful 'fear bid'.

Friday, 25 August 2017

Gold still battling around $1300

It was a moderately bullish week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 0.5%    and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is leaning on the bullish side, but Gold is finding strong resistance at the $1300 threshold. Relative to gold, silver is notably still weak.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, the precious metals have been pushing upward since early July (along with the related mining stocks).

Gold is finding strong resistance around the $1300 threshold. Things would turn far more bullish with a daily/weekly close in the $1300s, and that would open the door to challenging the summer 2016 highs.

Considering the mid term weakness in the USD - settling the week in the DXY 92s, gold and silver are arguably under-performing.
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An important indirect bullish signal is copper, which has attained the first weekly close >$3.00 since late 2014.



If copper can manage a monthly close >$3.00 (whether August.. or beyond), it would suggest gold and silver will eventually follow....


.... as the trio do broadly trade together across the years.

Friday, 18 August 2017

The struggling metals

With less war talk between the US and the DPRK, the precious metals are starting to struggle. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, not least if the USD can push into the DXY 94s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

This morning (August 18th) saw Gold break the $1300 threshold for the first time since Nov'2016, but it couldn't hold it, as capital market confidence was regained into the afternoon.

... and for Gold/Silver, price action is often swayed by sporadic geo-political chatter.

Technically, price momentum is net positive (if only moderately) for both gold and silver. It can also be said the trend since July is on the positive side. Yet.. gold is clearly stuck around $1300, and Silver has a particularly bearish set of lower highs from April.

For now.... 'Mr Inflation' is yet to be seen, and that is naturally holding back most of the related mining stocks. 
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It remains notable that one indirect bullish signal is copper, which settled higher for a sixth consecutive week, and is very close to challenging the key $3.00 threshold.

Copper, weekly


Any weekly/monthly close for copper >$3.00, would bode bullish for gold/silver, and the related miners.

Friday, 11 August 2017

Bullish engulfing candles

The precious metals started the week on a weak note, but then caught a rather powerful 'fear bid', with Gold and Silver settling net higher by $29.40 (2.3%) to $1294.00, and $0.82 (5.0%) to $17.07 respectively. The bullish engulfing candles lean to further upside within the near term.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

First, its notable that Gold is still considerably stronger than Silver.

It has been an interesting thing to see last week's declines fully negated, with both Gold and Silver swinging powerfully upward.

A rather bullish indirect signal is via the industrial metal of copper, which is just below the very important $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close (whether August.. or beyond) >$3.00 for copper, would bode bullish for Gold and Silver. The trio generally trade together on a multi-year basis, and if copper continues to rise, its almost impossible not to see Gold and Silver follow.
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*As ever, there are implications for the related mining stocks. The mining bulls really need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

A hyper bullish mining outlook... requires Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.

Friday, 4 August 2017

Metals cooling again

The short term bullish run for the precious metals has come to an end, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -$10.70 (0.8%) to $1264.60, and -$0.44 (2.6%) to $16.25 respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with Silver leading the way lower. 


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, with the USD ending the week with a bounce (partly inspired by the jobs data), the precious metals are under some significant downward pressure.

Silver is particularly bearish, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gold remains within the mid term bullish trend from Dec'2015.

The one indirect bullish aspect... copper, which recently broke above key resistance of $2.70, and is currently close to the key $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close >$3.00 would eventually suggest Gold and Silver will eventually catch up.

Friday, 28 July 2017

A third week of gains

The precious metals of Gold and Silver climbed for a third consecutive week, settling higher by +$13.50 (1.1%) to $1268.40, and +$0.24 (1.4%) to $16.69 respectively. Short term momentum is bullish, but any degree of bounce in the USD, will put significant renewed downward pressure on the metals.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

First, a special note on the USD, weekly cycle...



The settling candle saw a minor spike low precisely on core support of the DXY 93.00 threshold. If the USD has seen a short term floor, the pressure will on the metals next week, and across much of August.

Unlike some out there, not least the infamous 'dollar doomers', I see the USD eventually pushing to the DXY 120s. That of course would be severely deflationary to the metals. In any case, near term bullish USD, so long as the 93s hold!
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As for the metals, we've seen four distinct multi-week rallies this year, most of which exhausted themselves within 3-5 weeks. Frankly, the metals look very vulnerable next week/early August, not least if the USD can claw back into the DXY 94s.

To be confident, the gold bugs need to see Gold and Silver break above their April/June highs.

For broader mid/long term confidence, the summer 2016 highs need to be cleared. To be decisive, Gold $1400s.. and Silver $22s.
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As ever... feel free to leave a comment.

Extra charts on the metals, and related miner stocks @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Friday, 21 July 2017

Climbing for a second week

The precious of Gold and Silver climbed for a second week, with net weekly gains of $27.40 (2.3%) to $1254.90, and $0.52 (3.3%) to $16.46 respectively. Despite the gains, near term outlook is shaky, as any rebound in the USD from the DXY 93s will put renewed downward pressure on anything within commodity land.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a second consecutive significant net weekly gain for Gold and Silver. However, Silver remains a particular problem, having been sustainably trading under old support since early June.

Clearly, a large part of the recent bounce in the metals is due to the US dollar's continued weakness from the DXY 95s to the 93s. 

Right now, its a struggle to be bullish Gold or Silver. Arguably, the cautious will wait to chase until the April and/or June highs are traded back above.
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As ever, price action in Gold and Silver will have massive implications for the related mining stocks. Even if the main equity market continues upward to the sp'2600/700s by year end, it will count for nothing if Gold or Silver are at current levels... or worse.

*there is an FOMC next Wednesday. Even though no policy change is expected, such 'fed' days will often see big moves in the precious metals. If the USD does see a bounce next week - as seems probable, Gold and Silver will be back on the slide.

Friday, 14 July 2017

A weekly bounce

After five consecutive net weekly declines, Gold and Silver finally caught a bounce, settling with net weekly gains of $17.80 (1.5%) and $0.51 (3.3%) respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further upward, but broadly, the precious metals look very vulnerable, not least as the USD will be prone for a bounce before end month.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Cyclically, despite the weekly gains, both gold and silver are seeing underlying weekly price momentum continue to tick lower.

Silver remains far weaker than gold, having been sustainably under old support since early June. 

Its very difficult to see how Gold and Silver can be expected to see any sig' strength until at least after August, which is seasonally a somewhat weak period.

Further, if the USD bounces by just 1 or 2% into end July/early August, the metals will be under renewed 'natural' currency pressure.

Outlook: bearish, with Gold being lead lower by Silver.

Friday, 7 July 2017

A very bearish week

It was a very bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -$32.60 (2.6%) and -$1.20 (7.2%) respectively. Notably, Silver has broken well below the Dec'2016 low, and (in theory) it bodes badly for Gold... and the related mining stocks.


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for Gold and Silver, the most bearish run since late 2015, just before Gold/Silver floored.

The Silver weekly candle even highlights what was an effective flash-crash on Friday. Unquestionably, a large part of it was technical, as the Dec'2016 was broken, that will have initiated a great number of mid/long term trading stops.
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A special highlight of the bigger monthly cycles...

Gold, monthly1c



Silver, monthly1c


Suffice to add, Silver is leading the way lower... gold can be expected to follow.

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As ever, extra charts on the metals... and other things @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Friday, 30 June 2017

A bearish June

It was a pretty bearish month for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net June declines of -$33.10 (2.6%) to $1242.30, and -$0.78 (4.5%) to $16.63 respectively. Near term outlook is leaning weak.


Gold, monthly



Silver, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, it was certainly a difficult month for the precious metals, and related mining stocks.

Keep in mind the USD, which has been in cooling mode since a bearish break in late April. Indeed, when you consider the weak USD, the precious metals are actually weaker than on first look.

Dr Copper is an indirect bullish sign, as its close to breaking and holding above the key $2.70 threshold.

Friday, 23 June 2017

A week of moderate swings

It was a week of moderate swings for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The mid term outlook is increasingly borderline, as the broader commodity complex remains under downward pressure.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

It was effectively a flat week for the precious metals, after two prior weeks of sig' declines.

Was this week just a pause before renewed downside? Or do have a marginally higher low - relative to early May?

Either Gold and Silver are going to turn very bearish with a break under the May low, or they're going to eventually break above the April high. We'll know the answer soon enough.

Yours truly is especially concerned about Gold, whose MACD (blue bar histogram) weekly cycle is set to turn negative into end June.
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As ever.. price action in Gold and Silver will have big implications for the related mining stocks. Its notable that this week, the sector ETF of GDX saw another fractional break of core rising trend - that extends back to Jan'2016.

Friday, 16 June 2017

A second week lower

The precious metals of Gold and Silver declined for a second consecutive week, settling net lower by -1.0% and -3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens further weakness, especially in Gold. Mid term outlook is increasingly uncertain, as Silver and the related miners broke core rising trend in early May.


GLD weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Gold/GLD: note the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. Its set to turn negative before end June. If that does occur, it will bode for significantly lower levels this summer.

Silver/SLV: Silver has been far weaker than gold since the big turn in Dec'2015. Last week saw a key lower high put in - relative to April, and now its a case of whether the May low ($15.21) is taken out.

Best guess... it sure ain't looking so bullish for the precious metals. Leaning bearish.

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*As ever, how the precious metals trade will have massive implications for the related mining stocks. Its notable that the ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, with another borderline break under core rising trend that extends back to the multi-year low of Jan'2016.