Friday 7 April 2017

Mixed week for the metals

With the 'Syria situation', the precious metals caught some degree of 'fear bid', but that largely faded into the weekend. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.6% and -1.3% respectively. Most notable, Gold has (briefly) broken above the Feb' high, Silver looks set to follow. The mid term bullish trend remains intact.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

With the US launching an overnight attack on Syria, the precious metals both jumped overnight. We saw Gold to $1273.30, and Silver to $18.49. However, the US capital market remains exceptionally confident. The overnight 'fear bid' gains largely faded for Gold, and Silver even settled significantly lower.

Both Gold and Silver are making an attempt to break and hold above the February highs. The weekly candles are pretty spiky on the upper end, and its possible we'll just churn for a few weeks, before a more concerted attempt to push upward.

In either case, those bullish the metals - and the related miners, have no reason to be concerned unless core rising trend (that links the Jan'2016 and Dec'2016 lows) are taken out. In the case of GLD, that will be around $110 in early May, and for SLV... $15.50. Those levels are considerably below current prices.

I am holding to something of an inflationary outlook. I am seeking the summer 2016 highs to be taken out. For decisive 'hyper bullish' clarity, I want to see Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, Copper >$3.00. The related mining ETF of GDX would need to see the $32s.

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