The precious metals of Gold and Silver climbed for a third consecutive week, settling higher by +$13.50 (1.1%) to $1268.40, and +$0.24 (1.4%) to $16.69 respectively. Short term momentum is bullish, but any degree of bounce in the USD, will put significant renewed downward pressure on the metals.
First, a special note on the USD, weekly cycle...
The settling candle saw a minor spike low precisely on core support of the DXY 93.00 threshold. If the USD has seen a short term floor, the pressure will on the metals next week, and across much of August.
Unlike some out there, not least the infamous 'dollar doomers', I see the USD eventually pushing to the DXY 120s. That of course would be severely deflationary to the metals. In any case, near term bullish USD, so long as the 93s hold!
As for the metals, we've seen four distinct multi-week rallies this year, most of which exhausted themselves within 3-5 weeks. Frankly, the metals look very vulnerable next week/early August, not least if the USD can claw back into the DXY 94s.
To be confident, the gold bugs need to see Gold and Silver break above their April/June highs.
For broader mid/long term confidence, the summer 2016 highs need to be cleared. To be decisive, Gold $1400s.. and Silver $22s.
As ever... feel free to leave a comment.
Extra charts on the metals, and related miner stocks @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk