Friday, 15 June 2018

Bearish break for gold

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines, -$24.20 (1.9%) to $1278.50, and -$0.26 (1.6%) to $16.48 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD climbs to the DXY 95s or higher. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bearish if Gold <$1238 and Silver <$16s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

The week ended on a very bearish note for the precious metals, with sig' net weekly declines. Gold saw a clear break of rising trend that stretches back to the Dec'2016 low. Last line of defense for the gold bugs is the Dec'2017 low of $1238. Any price action <1230 would break core rising trend from Dec'2015. If that occurred, it would open the door to legacy price target of 900/875

Silver saw a failed rally, cooling from $17.35, to settle at $16.48. The weekly candle is very spiky on the upper end, and bodes s/t bearish. Rising trend from July 2017 will be around $16.40 next week, and looks very vulnerable. Any price action <$16.00 would be very bearish.
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To be clear, s/t bearish, not least with this week's bearish break in Gold. Any further strength in the USD would really pressure gold toward the key $1238 low. 

Friday, 25 May 2018

Gold bouncing from rising trend

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains, +$12.30 (1.0%) to $1303.70, and +$0.09 (0.5%) to $16.55 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside. The m/t outlook will only turn decisively bullish with Gold >$1400 and Silver >$18s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, this weekly gain in gold was pretty important, and negates the s/t threat that the Dec'2017 low of $1238 might be tested. Instead, s/t outlook is bullish into early June. The next rate hike (June 13th) will be a reminder though that rates are still being regularly raised. Higher rates are inherently bearish for gold. 

Things will only turn decisively bullish if Gold can break and hold the $1400 threshold. Arguably, Silver just needs the $18s. 

Friday, 18 May 2018

Bearish metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines, -$29.40 (2.2%) to $1291.30, and -$0.30 (1.8%) to $16.45 respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain, and will be greatly dependent upon the USD and bond yields.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, gold remains stronger than silver, but both metals are lagging the broader commodity complex.

Ongoing s/t strength in the USD and higher bond yields is really keeping the downward pressure on gold, and to a slightly less degree... silver.

Technically, gold and silver both avoided a weekly close under key rising trend. The next few weeks are going to be rather important!

Friday, 11 May 2018

Weekly gains

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains, +$6.00 (0.5%) to $1320.70, and +$0.23 (1.4%) to $16.75 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Gold remains broadly stronger than Silver, but both metals are m/t choppy since early 2017, especially relative to the broader commodity complex.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm still leaning toward an eventual bullish breakout in Gold. For now, there is ZERO sign of that.

Monday, 30 April 2018

Broadly churning

The precious metals of Gold and Silver were moderately mixed in March, settling -$8.10 (0.6%) to $1319.20, and +$0.13 (0.8%) to $16.40 respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold monthly



Silver monthly



Summary

There is little to add, as the precious metals continue to broadly churn since early 2017. Gold remains notably stronger than Silver.

Best guess: an eventual upside break in Gold... with Silver to follow, as partly based on m/t bullish trends in WTIC and copper. For the moment though, gold is showing zero sign* of a breakout, partly pressured by a recently strengthening USD.

*implications for the related miners. 

Friday, 20 April 2018

Mixed metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver were rather mixed this week, settling -$9.60 (0.7%) to $1338.30, and +$0.50 (3.0%) to $17.16 respectively. Near term outlook offers broader upside. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, the metals were rather mixed this week. Unusually, Silver is outperforming gold, although across the last year or so, its still massively lagging.
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Copper, Gold, Silver, 10yr, monthly


The trio of metals do broadly trade together across the years. Since late 2015, Copper and Gold are performing far better than Silver. This past week's sig' gain in Silver could well be the start of a major bullish run. Keep in mind, the broader commodity complex is climbing. I'd refer anyone to the following CRB chart...



Soft target for the CRB remains the 220/30 zone. If correct, bullish implications for the metals (and related mining stocks), at least to some degree.

Thursday, 29 March 2018

A mixed month for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver were moderately mixed in March, settling +$9.40 (0.7%) to $1327.30, and -$0.14 (0.8%) to $16.27 respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold monthly


Silver monthly


Summary

Suffice to add, Gold remains notably stronger than Silver. Broadly, both metals have been churning since early 2017. Things only turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400s and Silver >$22s. 

Friday, 23 March 2018

Big gains for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw broad gains, settling +$37.60 (2.9%) to $1349.90, and +$0.31 (1.9%) to $16.58 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, Gold remains notably stronger than Silver

Gold and Silver have been broadly choppy since early 2017. Things would turn decisively bullish with Gold >$1400, and Silver >$22s.

If the metals do proceed higher across the spring/early summer, it will bode very well for the related gold/silver mining stocks. 

Friday, 16 March 2018

Weak metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver were broadly weak, with net weekly declines of -$11.70 (0.9%) to $1312.30, and -$0.34 (2.0%) to $16.27 respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, Gold remains notably more resilient that Silver. Both metals are broadly choppy.

Silver is testing core rising trend from summer 2017. Another sig' weekly decline would bode bearish, but my guess is that a rebound in the metals is due, as the fed are set to raise rates.

Friday, 9 March 2018

Choppy metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a week of chop, with net weekly gains of +$0.60 (0.1%) to $1324.00, and +$0.14 (0.9%) to $16.61 respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, Gold remains broadly stronger than Silver.

Both metals have been broadly choppy since early 2017.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm leaning to eventual bullish upward breaks in gold, with silver following. If correct, bullish implications for the related mining stocks.

Friday, 2 March 2018

Gold and Silver cooling

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a second consecutive week of declines, -$6.90 (0.5%) to $1323.40, and -$0.02 (0.1%) to $16.47 respectively. Near term outlook offers a little chop. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add...

-Gold is still broadly stronger than Silver.
-Silver notably tested m/t rising trend this week

I'm still leaning on an eventual upward break, the key thresholds are gold >1400 and Silver >22.

Friday, 23 February 2018

Precious metals cooling

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw significant net weekly declines of -$25.90 (1.9%) to $1330.30, and -$0.23 (1.4%) to $16.48 respectively. Near term outlook offers a little chop. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, Gold continues to remain far stronger than Silver. Both metals are holding the m/t upward trend from summer 2017.

The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s. Based on m/t price action in copper and WTIC, I continue to lean to the view that gold and silver will eventually catchup.
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Copper, Gold, Silver, monthly'10yr


The trio of metals trade broadly together across the years, and with copper m/t bullish, both gold and silver should follow.

Friday, 16 February 2018

Gold and Silver climbing

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw significant net weekly gains of $40.50 (3.1%) to $1356.20, and $0.57 (3.5%) to $16.71 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside, not least if the USD fails to hold the key DXY 88s. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a bullish week for the precious metals of gold and silver. Gold remains notably stronger than silver.

Best guess: a spring/summer upside break, with Gold >$1400s, and Silver eventually following >$22s.

Yours truly believes 'Mr inflation is out there'.

Friday, 9 February 2018

A second week lower

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a second consecutive week of cooling, with net weekly declines of -$21.60 (1.6%) to $1315.70, and -$0.57 (3.4%) to $16.14 respectively. Near term outlook threatens a bounce, not least if the USD cools. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a second week lower, but broadly, price action has been choppy for over a year. Things only become decisively bullish if Gold >$1400s and Silver >$22s.

Keep in mind Copper...


... which is still holding a m/t bullish trend. Gold, Silver, and Copper do broadly trade together across the years. Unless copper loses the m/t trend, I still expect gold/silver to eventually follow upward.

Friday, 2 February 2018

A cooling week

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a week of cooling, with net weekly declines of -$14.80 (1.1%) to $1337.30, and -$0.73 (4.2%) to $16.71 respectively. Near term outlook is choppy. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly


Summary

Suffice to add, an arguably 'sporadic' week of cooling, with the metals somewhat pressured as the USD is trying to bounce from last week's low in the DXY 88.20s.

Broadly... price action has been choppy since early 2017. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400 and Silver $22s.
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Wednesday, 31 January 2018

Bullish start to the year

The precious metals of Gold and Silver are back on the rise, with net weekly gains of $33.80 (2.6%) to $1343.10, and $0.10 (0.6%) to $17.24 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold monthly



Silver monthly



Summary

A third month higher for gold, and a second month higher for silver.

The key threshold for Gold is clearly $1400. If that can be broken above, its a fast run to psy' $1500, with a grander outlook of the $1900s, which would seem viable by spring 2019.

Silver is still greatly lagging gold. The declining trend will be around the $17.70s in February. So, the $18s would be decisive, and offer a challenge of the key $22 threshold by early summer.
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Based on Copper and WTIC - both of which are mid term bullish, I have to see Gold and Silver eventually catch up this year. If correct, very bullish implications for the related gold/silver mining stocks.

Friday, 26 January 2018

Back on the rise

The precious metals of Gold and Silver are back on the rise, with net weekly gains of $19.00 (1.4%) to $1352.10, and $0.41 (2.4%) to $17.44 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly


Summary

Suffice to add, the weaker USD - seeing the DXY 88.20s this week, has helped give the precious metals (and most other commodities) an extra kick upward.

For now, gold is still broadly choppy from early 2017, with silver still lagging. Copper and oil are indirectly supportive of the notion that gold and silver will eventually catch up across 2018.

The cautious will wait to chase, until Gold >$1400s, and Silver >$22s. Same applies to the related mining stocks.

Friday, 19 January 2018

A little cooling

It was a choppy week of cooling for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -$1.80 (0.1%) to $1333.10, and -$0.11 (0.6%) to $17.04 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

The first net weekly decline for Gold since early December, whilst Silver cooled for a second week.

Gold isn't far from what would be a very decisive breakout: >$1400. If that is seen this spring/summer, we'd see a fast run to psy' $1500, and the 1600/700s by year end.

Silver remains notably weaker than Gold, and is way below the highs from early 2017. Things would arguably only turn decisively bullish with >$22s.

Copper and oil are indirectly supportive of the notion that gold/silver will eventually catch up across 2018. If correct, very bullish implications for the related gold mining stocks, such as Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont (NEM).

Friday, 12 January 2018

A mixed week for the metals

It was a mixed week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly changes of +$12.60 (0.9%) to $1334.90, and -$0.14 (0.8%) to $17.14 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Despite a net weekly decline in Silver, it did close well above the Thursday low of $16.88.

The precious metals are clearly being helped via the broadly weak USD, which settled around the DXY 90.60s.

Copper and oil are both strongly supportive of the m/t bullish commodity outlook. Gold and Silver should eventually 'join the party' this spring or summer.
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Copper, gold, silver, monthly, 10yr


The trio do broadly trade together on a multi-year basis. Recent broad strength in copper is highly suggestive that gold/silver will eventually catch up.

Friday, 5 January 2018

A fourth week higher

The precious metals of Gold and Silver climbed for a fourth consecutive week, with net weekly gains of $13.00 (1.0%) to $1322.30, and $0.14 (0.8%) to $17.28 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a fourth week higher for the precious metals. Note how the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles have seen a bullish cross, as price momentum is now outright bullish (at least in the short term). More broadly though, price action is still choppy.

The metal bulls should be seeking a decisive push for gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00. The latter has been seen of course.

Copper, gold, silver, monthly, 10yr


The trio do broadly trade together across the years. Copper is unquestionably m/t bullish, and indirectly suggest that gold and silver will (eventually) catch up.