Saturday, 30 July 2022

The dollar isn't helping

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July declines of -$25.50 (1.4%) to $1781.80, and -$0.15 (0.8%) to $20.20 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is fairing better due to the s/t bullish equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 


 Silver, monthly1b

 


Summary

Gold: printing $1678.40, but recovering to settle in the $1761s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1838, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $18.01, but recovering to settle at $20.20. Momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.73, which silver settled below for a fourth month. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for the rest of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.
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Dollar strength since early 2021 isn't helping gold, or silver.

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The gold-silver ratio stands at 88.22, and whilst its historically high, its far below the March 2020 spike, when silver was printing the $11s. 

Gold can be expected to perform better based on geo-political tensions, whilst silver will be more impacted by the m/t bearish equity market. I would expect the ratio to climb back >100 before year end.
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Thursday, 30 June 2022

A mid term bearish mess

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$41.10 (2.2%) to $1807.30, and -$1.34 (6.2%) to $21.35 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is more adversely impacted by the m/t bearish equity market.

Gold, monthly

 


Silver, monthly

 


Summary

Gold: printing $1882.50, but cooling back to settle in the $1807s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1836, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend IS bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $22.57, but spiraling back lower to settle at $20.35, the lowest since July 2020. Momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.92, which silver settled below. for a third month. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn only turn interesting again, with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for another few months, with the bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.
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Whilst gold fell for a third month, its holding up far better than Bitcoin, as the gold>bitcoin ratio has dropped from the 34s (a notable double top) to just 10. 



The gold>silver ratio stands at 88.80, the highest since spring 2020, as gold is holding up better than silver.

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Tuesday, 31 May 2022

Precious metals continue to cool

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May declines of -$63.30 (3.3%) to $1848.40, and -$1.40 (6.0%) to $21.69 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is more adversely impacted by the m/t broken equity market.

Gold, monthly

 


Silver, monthly

 


Summary

Gold: printing $1785, but recovering to settle in the $1848s. Price momentum has stalled just under the key zero threshold. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1837, which was marginally settled below. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

Next target is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. A push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $20.42, but recovering to settle at $21.69. Momentum remains negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.28, which silver settled decisvely below. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult with the broken equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

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