Rough September

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September declines of -$99.80 (5.1%) to $1866.10, and -$2.36 (9.5%) to $22.45 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the three concerns should be further dollar strengthening, higher bond yields, and a weak equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1980.20, but swinging lower to settle in the $1866s - the lowest since March. A monthly close back under the key 10MA.

Price momentum was positive for a sixth month, but is due to turn negative as of Oct'2nd.
Any further upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes.
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Silver: printing $25.22, but swinging lower to settle at $22.45, the lowest monthly close since February. A monthly close back under the key 10MA. Momentum was net positive for a sixth month, but is set to turn negative as of Oct'2nd.

Key threats to silver, will be if the equity market sees further downside, and if the dollar strengthens.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.
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The Bitcoin > Gold ratio stands at 14.40, still half of what it was in 2021.
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The gold > silver ratio stands at 83.12. Historically, this is clearly on the high side.

*as ever... all ratio charts are to be treated with an especially high degree of caution. Its very possible that gold AND silver can fall (or climb) at the same time, with the ratio itself remaining unchanged.

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September's dollar strengthening, back into the DXY 106s, sure didn't help gold.

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A mixed August

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August declines of -$43.30 (2.2%) to $1965.90, and -$0.16 (0.6%) to $24.81 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the three concerns should be renewed dollar upside, higher bond yields, and a weak equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: cooling to $1913.60, but recovering to settle in the $1965s.

Price momentum was positive for a fifth month. I'd note first major support of the key 10MA has climbed to the $1924s. 

Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.

Any renewed upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes. Indeed, considering the ongoing rate hike cycle, gold is performing better than it might seem.
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Silver: printing $22.26, if recovering to settle at $24.81. Momentum was net positive for a sixth month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.65, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar strengthens.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.

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Gold settles above 2K

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July gains of +$79.80 (4.1%) to $2009.20, and +$1.95 (8.5%) to $24.97 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the two concerns should be renewed dollar upside and higher bond yields.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: cooling to $1908.50, but recovering to settle in the $2009s, the first ever close above giant psy' $2K.

Price momentum was positive for a fifth month. The July candle is bullish engulfing, and leans distinctly bullish into late summer. I'd note first major support of the key 10MA has climbed to the $1891s. 

Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.

Any renewed upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes. Indeed, considering the ongoing rate hike cycle, gold is performing better than it might seem.
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Silver: printing $22.72, if recovering to settle at $24.97. The July candle is bullish engulfing, and leans distinctly bullish into late summer. Momentum was net positive for a fifth month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.08, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside, but there is ZERO sign of that (as of July 31st). A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes upward, and there is no sign of that either.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.
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The Gold to silver ratio stands at 80.46. Historically, this remains very high. The ratio could decline, but it sure doesn't mean that both gold AND silver can't both increase in value at the same time. Again, silver clearly has the better potential for upside.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 14.54. It remains a bizarre notion that it takes 14oz of gold to purchase one cryptographic string of the Bitcoin variety.
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