Metals back on the slide

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February declines of -$108.60 (5.6%) to $1836.70, and -$2.77 (11.6%) to $21.07 respectively. Monthly momentum has stalled from just under the key zero threshold.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new multi-month high of the $1975s, but swinging powerfully lower to the $1810s, and settling in the $1836s. Price momentum has stalled from just under the key zero threshold. The February candle is arguably bearish engulfing, and leans bearish into the spring. Next support is the monthly 10MA in the $1784s.
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Silver: printing $24.75, but seeing a very powerful downside reversal to $20.50, and settling at $21.07. Momentum has stalled from just below the key zero threshold. I would note the monthly 10MA at $20.90, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside into and across the spring. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold to silver ratio climbed to the 87s in February, as gold is holding up far better than silver.
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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 12.59. I would expect gold to fair better this spring/summer, not least if there is any geo-political upset.
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Gold leading Silver

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January changes of +$119.10 (6.5%) to $1945.30, and -$0.20 (0.8%) to $23.84 respectively. Monthly momentum is due to turn positive for both gold and silver at the Feb'1st open.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: printing a new multi-month high of the $1950s, higher for a third consecutive month. Price momentum ticked higher for a third month, and is due to turn positive at the Feb'1st open. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1791, which was once again settled above. 

Upside resistance thresholds... the upper bollinger $1963s, giant psy' 2K, and then the Aug'2020 hist' high of $2089. Any price action >$2100 would offer a grander run to 2400/2500, as seems realistic as early as late summer.
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Silver: printing $24.77, but cooling back to settle at $23.84.  Momentum ticked higher for a fifth consecutive month, and will turn positive at the Feb'1st open. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.10, which silver settled above.

The problem for silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside into the spring. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold to silver ratio ticked upward to 81.61. We remain historically on the high side, and I do expect an eventual return to the 34s. That doesn't mean gold AND silver can't both rise together.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio climbed to 11.83. I have to wonder if we'll see ever parity again, and I fully accept that as 'crazy gold bug' talk.
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A mixed 2022

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December gains of +$66.30 (3.8%) to $1826.20, and +$2.26 (10.4%) to $24.04 respectively. For the year, Gold and Silver saw net yearly changes of -$2.40 (0.1%) and +$0.69 (2.9%) respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: ending the year on a positive note, settling in the $1826s. Price momentum ticked higher for a second month, if remaining on the moderately low side. The December candle offers increased confidence of a short term floor from the November $1618s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1792, which was settled above.

Silver: a fourth consecutive net monthly gain, printing $24.51, and settling at $24.04. The December candle leans s/t bullish. Momentum ticked higher for a fourth consecutive month, and is prone to turning positive in January. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.23, which silver settled decisively above. The silver bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $25.50. 

The problem... especially for silver, will be if the main market is broadly lower across Q1. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 75.97, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold in an inflationary environment.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 9.08, the lowest since autumn 2020. It sure would be interesting to see parity in this pair!

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Considering the broadly stronger USD - a net 2022 gain of +768bps to DXY 103.27, Gold fared better in 2022 than it might at first seem. Both can rise together, especially in times of geo-political crisis.
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