New cycle lows

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October declines of -$283.99 (6.8%) to $3873.81, and -$11.28 (18.7%) to $49.13 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a very powerful net monthly decline, printing $3870, and settling in the $3873s. Momentum continued to weaken, and is on the very low side. 
 
Silver: a severe net monthly decline, printing a low of $49.05, and settling at $49.13. Momentum continued to weaken,  and is on the very low side.
--

My concerns have been...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just minor cooling of -5.0% to the 7300s, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates Oct'28th, and/or Dec'9th 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.50%  
--

There is clearly ZERO sign of a s/t floor in gold/silver, and the related miners.
However, seasonally... the setup will favour the bulls from early Nov', and into mid January. 

An additional concern is geo-political, not least Ukraine and Iran, but those are true wild cards.
The default is to assume nothing happens.  

--

For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com 

Metals retracing

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September declines of -$285.58 (6.4%) to $4155.56, and -$6.12 (9.2%) to $60.40 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a powerful net monthly decline, printing a low of $4111, and settling at $4155. Momentum weakened for a seventh month, and is on the low side. 
 
Silver: a very powerful net monthly decline, printing a low of $60.27, and settling at $60.40. Momentum weakened for a seventh month. and is moderately negative.
--

The concerns should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just minor cooling of -5.0% to the 7300s, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates Oct'28th, and/or Dec'9th 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.50% 

--

For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com 

Mid term floor

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August gains of +$404.57 (10.0%) to $4447.54, and +$8.90 (15.4%) to $66.52 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a massive net monthly gain, printing a high of $4697, and settling at $4447. Momentum weakened for a sixth month, and is on the moderately low side. 
 
Silver: a massive net monthly gain, printing a high of $71.16, and settling in the $66s. Momentum weakened for a sixth month. and is marginally negative.

If August is telling anything, its that the July lows are likely a m/t low. 
---

The concerns into the fall should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just a basic correction of 10%, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates in Sept' and/or Dec' 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.00% 

Right now... I'm guessing we see all four of those things before year end.  

Again though... the July lows for gold and silver look pretty secure. 
-- 

 

For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com