Metals retracing

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September declines of -$285.58 (6.4%) to $4155.56, and -$6.12 (9.2%) to $60.40 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a powerful net monthly decline, printing a low of $4111, and settling at $4155. Momentum weakened for a seventh month, and is on the low side. 
 
Silver: a very powerful net monthly decline, printing a low of $60.27, and settling at $60.40. Momentum weakened for a seventh month. and is moderately negative.
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The concerns should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just minor cooling of -5.0% to the 7300s, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates Oct'28th, and/or Dec'9th 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.50% 

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For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com 

Mid term floor

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August gains of +$404.57 (10.0%) to $4447.54, and +$8.90 (15.4%) to $66.52 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a massive net monthly gain, printing a high of $4697, and settling at $4447. Momentum weakened for a sixth month, and is on the moderately low side. 
 
Silver: a massive net monthly gain, printing a high of $71.16, and settling in the $66s. Momentum weakened for a sixth month. and is marginally negative.

If August is telling anything, its that the July lows are likely a m/t low. 
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The concerns into the fall should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just a basic correction of 10%, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates in Sept' and/or Dec' 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.00% 

Right now... I'm guessing we see all four of those things before year end.  

Again though... the July lows for gold and silver look pretty secure. 
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For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com 

Negative monthly momentum

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$34.28 (0.9%) to $4042.00, and -$0.95 (1.6%) to $57.56 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a minor net monthly gain, printing a low of $3959, and recovering to $4042. Momentum weakened for a fifth month, and has turned sustainably negative. A second monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... $3500, and $3K
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Silver: the fourth monthly decline of five, a new cycle low of $54.74, and recovering to $57.56. Momentum weakened for a fifth month. and is due to turn negative as Monday August 3rd. A second monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... psy' $50, and then the 40/35 zone.
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The concerns this summer, and into the fall should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just a basic correction of 10%, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates in Sept' and/or Dec' 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.00% 

Right now... I'm guessing we see all four of those things before year end.  

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For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com