Negative monthly momentum

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$34.28 (0.9%) to $4042.00, and -$0.95 (1.6%) to $57.56 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a minor net monthly gain, printing a low of $3959, and recovering to $4042. Momentum weakened for a fifth month, and has turned sustainably negative. A second monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... $3500, and $3K
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Silver: the fourth monthly decline of five, a new cycle low of $54.74, and recovering to $57.56. Momentum weakened for a fifth month. and is due to turn negative as Monday August 3rd. A second monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... psy' $50, and then the 40/35 zone.
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The concerns this summer, and into the fall should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just a basic correction of 10%, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates in Sept' and/or Dec' 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.00% 

Right now... I'm guessing we see all four of those things before year end.  

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For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com 

Very bearish June

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$526.50 (11.6%) to $4014.91, and -$16.48 (21.9%) to $58.76 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a fourth consecutive net monthly decline, printing a low of $3941, and recovering to $4014. Momentum weakened for a fourth month, and is due to turn negative as of July 1st. A decisive monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... $3500, and $3K
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Silver: the third monthly decline of four, a low of $55.57, and recovering to $58.76. Momentum weakened for a fourth month. and is due to turn negative as of July 1st. A decisive monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... psy' $50, and then the $34s
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The performance is even worse, relative to the broadly positive main market.
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The concerns this summer, and into the fall should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just a basic correction of 10%, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar continues to strengthen.

3. If the Fed raise rates

4. If the US 10yr breaks >5.00% 

Right now... I'm guessing we see all four of those things before year end.  

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For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com 

Mixed May

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May changes of -$83.92 (1.8%) to $4538.94, and +$1.57 (2.1%) to $75.27 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a third consecutive net monthly decline, printing a low of $4366, and recovering to $4538. Momentum weakened for a third month. The May candle is rather spiky from the 10MA. 
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Silver: a high of $89.36, cooling to $71.75, and recovering to $75.27. Momentum weakened for a third month.
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Special note...

Gold, daily

 

On Thursday (May 28th), gold saw an upside reversal from the 200dma.
Daily momentum is prone to turning positive next Mon/Tues'. 
Things turn distinctly bullish above the recent high of $4473. 
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For more of the same... > https://www.tradingsunset.com