Thursday 28 March 2013

Metals still weak

Whilst the equity indexes continue to melt higher, the precious metals are still weak, and this was despite the US dollar actually declining today. Silver was especially weak, and came rather close to taking out the Wednesday low. A minor rebound was seen in the afternoon.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Another rather rough day for those on the bullish side in the metals market. The rather notable aspect was the persistent weakness in both Gold and Silver, despite the USD actually falling.

Bull flag?

GLD is offering a small bull flag (blue) on the daily chart. I've added an equivalent one for SLV, but the latter looks pretty bad, not least with it being below key resistance.

Considering the weekly charts (see below), I have to believe the metals will at least get an opportunity to challenge the declining resistance - that has kept a lid on the metals since the highs at the announcement of QE3 last September.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is still negative cycle, but IS trying to recover back to the important zero line.

Metal bulls really need SLV back in the 28s, and GLD back in the 156s  Considering the price action in the past few days, its going to difficult, but not impossible. The hourly charts offer considering potential for upside across Monday, and perhaps also Tuesday. Yet for now, it remains just that...potential.

How we open..and trade Monday morning will again be critical.

Wednesday 27 March 2013

Gold leads...Silver follows

It was a very mixed day in the precious metals world. Silver opened sharply lower by around 2%, yet Gold was flat. Silver quickly saw a pretty sharp morning reversal, and closed the day only fractionally lower. Gold managed a closing gain of around $6




The morning open was particularly interesting. There was a very noticeable discrepancy between Gold and Silver, which usually trade very closely.

Gold was flat..whilst Silver was getting the hammer. With Gold looking like it was set to confirm a bullish wedge/pennant, I went long Silver..and that worked out rather well.

Near term trend for Gold looks stronger than Silver. Indeed, the Silver chart looks a real mess right now, filled with reversal/spike-floor candles, and so far unable to break above key resistance around 28.40.

My best guess is that Gold has a comfortable $20/25 of upside in the next few days, and that should at least drag Silver back to the mid 28s..possibly even the low 29s.

Whether Gold/Silver can break above the absolutely key declining resistance (see daily charts), that IS the ultimate unknown right now.

*I exited a secondary SLV block that I picked up at the open, and am now just holding the first block overnight into Thursday, seeking 28.25/50 exit point.

Tuesday 26 March 2013

Weak Precious Metals

Despite the equity market rallying, - including WTIC Oil, the precious metals are failing to follow. Today was just another day of general weakness for both Gold and Silver, which both closed lower by 0.3%. However, near term price action is offering a bullish wedge/pennant on GLD

GLD, 60min

SLV, 60min


A somewhat frustrating day for those long the metals - which includes yours truly.

The metals opened weak..and traded in a rather tight range all day.

GLD is offering a slightly bullish near term outlook, with a bullish wedge on the hourly chart. SLV does not offer the same.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the hourly charts IS suggestive that the sell side action is exhausted, at least for a few days.

Yet, how high might we go ?

Targets: GLD 158
SLV: 29

If we see the metals get to those levels, then it will be the do or die situation. If the metals get stuck and can't break over key declining resistance, then a major collapse wave across April/May looks very feasible.

Critical days ahead.

Friday 22 March 2013

Precious metals close the week..weak

A somewhat weak end to the week for Gold and Silver, with declines of 0.5 and 1.6% respectively. The weekly charts produced moderate gains of 1% for Gold, but fractionally lower for Silver. There is huge declining channel resistance just 2-3% higher.

GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow


The last two days of trading have been a bit messy for the metals. Thursday saw a significant gap higher, where the metals then flat lined for the rest of the day. Whilst today saw the metals gap lower..only to then flat line for rest of the day.

What about next week ?

The hourly charts offer significant gap upside for the Monday open, and certainly it would not be surprising if SLV is trading in the mid 28s early next week.

Interestingly, the USD appears to be starting a multi-day down cycle, and that should help to pressure the metals upward.

Near term targets

GLD  158/159
SLV:  29.00-29.50

What happens at those levels will determine whether we see precious metals breakout to the upside..or get stuck at resistance.

A fail and subsequent rollover would bode for a break of the summer 2012 lows, with GLD in the 140/135s..and SLV in the 24/23s.

Thursday 21 March 2013

Metals jump at the open

Whilst the equity indexes opened weak, the precious metals were the one bright spot in the markets today. The opening gap higher held across the day, with Gold and Silver closing 0.5 and 1.4% higher respectively. Near term trend looks moderately bullish.

GLD, daily

SLV ,daily


It was something of an unusual day for the metals. Both Gold and Silver opened higher, and then merely traded in an exceptionally narrow trading range across the entire day.

With this consolidation of the opening gains, both Gold and Silver now have bull flags on the hourly charts, and look set for further gains tomorrow and early next week.

A challenge of the absolutely critical declining resistance now looks likely in the middle of next week.

We'll soon see whether Gold/Silver are about to begin a very large multi-month rally. If they fail...then the summer 2012 lows will be quickly tested..and next time, I'd not expect them to hold.

Next week will be indeed...mission critical.

Tuesday 19 March 2013

Metals remain surprisingly stable

Gold closed the day moderately higher, Silver closed roughly flat. Overall trading/price volatility is very low right now, and this is somewhat surprisingly considering the Cyprus situation. Near term trend is for slightly higher levels, but massive resistance is looming just a little higher.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Suffice to say, SLV remains especially muted in price. We've seen Silver catch a strong bid on opening gaps lower, but it just can't break above the key 28.50 level.

The low 29s - where there is strong channel resistance is going to be extremely hard to break over in the next few weeks.

All things considered, I'm guessing the metals will FAIL to put in a few daily closes above key resistance..and will see a severe drop in April/May.

Saturday 16 March 2013

Metals trying to rally

It was another tight trading range for the metals this week. Gold managed to close the week $13 higher, but Silver slipped 21 cents. Critically though, despite some weakness, both metals are holding above their recent lows.

GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow


It remains a VERY interesting time to be trading the metals. We've seen a very considerable - and consistent, fall since QE3 was announced last September.

We've seen a pretty clear 5 little waves lower, and the big question now is whether the metals are going to be able to break above the descending upper channel resistance line, or if they fail.

Another fail for likely bode for much lower levels into the early summer, perhaps a major drop with SLV in the very low 20s..even high teens, and GLD in the 130/120s.

Near term outlook

I am guessing the metals - considering how low they remain, will get at least a kick higher on the next FOMC. I do not expect QE to end any time soon, and once the market hears that, we should see at least day or two higher.

It will be critical though for both Gold and SIlver to break that upper channel line.

The 'break' targets are pretty clear...

GLD 162
SLV 32

If we see those hit in the next week or two, then a major new multi-month up cycle will very likely be underway.

*I am long SLV, seeking an exit in the mid 28s, although low 29s are viable on an FOMC reaction spike this coming Wednesday/Thursday.

Thursday 14 March 2013

Silver still struggling

Whilst the main equity markets continue to ramp higher, the precious metals are still struggling. To a large extent this is probably due to the rising US dollar. Near term price action looks vulnerable, but today's daily candle was a reversal, suggestive of upside on Friday.

SLV, 60min

SLV, daily2


Today's gap lower was disturbingly close to taking out the recent lows @ 27.35.

A break of that level would likely wreck carnage for the silver market, and open the door to the 20s, if not the high teens.

Near term target remains slightly to the upside, 28.40/50, possible low 29s.

A break above key descending resistance in the 29/30 area is increasingly looking difficult to in the weeks ahead.

*I hold SLV long overnight, seeking an exit early Friday in the mid 28s.

Wednesday 13 March 2013

Silver lower, but holding soft rising support

The metals opened moderately higher, but snapped lower in the late morning. However, both Gold and Silver held steady across the afternoon, on what appears to be rising support. Near term trend is very choppy, but the hourly cycle suggest upside across Thursday/Friday.

SLV, 60min

SLV, daily2


The open this morning was a bit of a mess. The moves were minor..but with no significant gap higher..the metals slipped..and then broke what was a pretty clear bull flag.

Despite todays morning snap lower, the MACD (blue bar histogram) on the hourly charts looks pretty much floored. There is no confirmed bullish cross..yet, but there is more likelihood of a gap higher at the Thursday open..than one lower.

The price action on the daily charts shows what is now a three week choppy mess, and could be one giant bear flag. The one bullish aspect is that prices are seemingly at least able to hold the floor of SLV 27.35.

Lets be clear though, if SLV breaks the floor, and slips into the 26s, then the bears will become rampant..and a collapse wave to 20, or even the high teens is VERY viable.

So, I am near term bullish...but mid term...bearish.

*I am long SLV, and seeking an exit in the low 29s by the Friday close.

Monday 11 March 2013

Metals begin the week a touch higher

After opening declines, and minor chop for most of the day, both Gold and Silver closed a touch higher. Recent price action suggest a short term floor is in, and a challenge of the 50/200 day MAs looks very viable.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Suffice to say, there does seem at least a very short term floor now built for the metals - and Oil too.

Near term targets...

SLV, 29.50/30.00
GLD, 158/161

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now positive, and there is a very viable 3-5 days higher yet to come.

However, there is now SEVERE resistance from both the 50/200 day MAs, and also the declining resistance - that has been holding prices since Sept'2012.


*I hold SLV overnight into Tuesday, and seeking the low 29s later this week.

Wednesday 6 March 2013

Silver solidifies a floor

The Silver ETF SLV closed +1.3%, to close @ $28.10. This is first close above the daily 10MA in over a month. There are two clear gaps to fill in the 29/30 zone, and that seems a very reasonable near term target.

SLV, daily3


The underlying daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to go positive cycle at the Thursday open.

There is very likely to be some further upside, if not even a significant gap higher.

On a slightly wider perspective, it has to be asked, are we now looking at a few weeks higher, back to test the descending resistance around the 30/31 area?

*I am long SLV from the 27.80 level..seeking an exit in the low 29s.

Tuesday 5 March 2013

Silver set to climb

SLV closed +0.5% @ 27.75. The daily charts are looking like Silver has built a short term floor, and a rally - at least to fill a few gaps, seems likely across the next week or two. What is clear, there will be very strong downward pressure at the SLV $30 level.

SLV, daily2

SLV, weekly


The precious metals have seen a very considerable decline in the past few weeks. A bounce does seem very likely..if only to reset the daily momentum cycle.

The 50 and 200 day MAs in the mid 29s will be key resistance for SLV

*I am long SLV from the 27.70 level from Tuesday afternoon, seeking at least the low 29s.