Thursday 30 June 2022

A mid term bearish mess

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$41.10 (2.2%) to $1807.30, and -$1.34 (6.2%) to $21.35 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is more adversely impacted by the m/t bearish equity market.

Gold, monthly


Silver, monthly



Gold: printing $1882.50, but cooling back to settle in the $1807s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1836, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend IS bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $22.57, but spiraling back lower to settle at $20.35, the lowest since July 2020. Momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.92, which silver settled below. for a third month. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn only turn interesting again, with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for another few months, with the bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

Whilst gold fell for a third month, its holding up far better than Bitcoin, as the gold>bitcoin ratio has dropped from the 34s (a notable double top) to just 10. 

The gold>silver ratio stands at 88.80, the highest since spring 2020, as gold is holding up better than silver.

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