Wednesday 31 May 2017

Mixed month for Gold and Silver

It was a mixed month for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Early May saw Silver break under core rising trend, but the month did end on a somewhat positive note. Mid term outlook remains leaning bullish, but its important to the bullish case, for the metals to break above the summer 2016 highs before year end.

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly


Gold is comfortably holding its mid term upward trend from Dec'2015.

Silver's break of rising trend in early May was pretty bearish, but the monthly close was somewhat positive, as the May candle shows, via a spike, indicative of a floor.

The cautious will wait to chase the precious metals, until Gold $1400s, and Silver is in the $22s. Is that possible by late summer 2017? Sure, and if the USD does cool to the DXY 93/92s, that would really help.

Friday 26 May 2017

A third weekly gain

The precious metals ended the week on a positive note, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 0.9% and 2.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is leaning bullish, but for confidence, the gold bugs need Gold $1400s and Silver $22s.

GLD, weekly

SLV weekly


Suffice to add, a third consecutive net weekly gain for both Gold and Silver. The more industrial Silver is racing to negate the recent break of core rising trend.

Indeed, the recent break of core rising trend in Silver - which was also seen in the related gold/silver miners, was a serious technical break. Yet this third weekly gain has really helped to negate the break.

What should matter to those looking for much higher levels, is that Gold and Silver break the April highs this summer. If that can be done, the door will re-open for a challenge to the summer 2016 highs.

Things will turn hyper-bullish with Gold $1400s and Silver in the $22s. 

I'm certainly leaning to the bullish side.

For extra charts (usually after 7pm EST each day), see

Friday 19 May 2017

Metals bouncing back

With the US capital market getting a little upset midweek, the precious metals caught an outright fear bid. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.2% and 2.4% respectively. Gold remains notably stronger than the more industrial Silver.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Further weakness in the USD (DXY 97s) certainly helped give the precious metals an extra kick higher this week.

Even though the capital market saw a recovery in mood/sentiment across Thurs/Friday, the metals still held most of the gains.

Most notable is that Silver is back above core rising trend/support. A few closes above the key 10MA (currently in the mid $16s) would give some confidence that last week's break was a fake out to the deflationists.

Friday 12 May 2017

Another bearish week

It was another rather bearish week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of -0.1% and +0.4% respectively. The weekly candles were somewhat spiky, and threaten upside into end May. The May close will be especially important for Silver and the related miners which recently broke core rising trend.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Last week was a particularly bearish week for the precious metals.

This week saw new cycle lows, but the latter part of the week did see some some degree of recovery, especially in Silver, which managed a moderate net weekly gain.

What matters now is whether the metals can claw upward, and turn net positive for the month. That would help to negate the key breaks of trend as seen in Silver and the miners last week.

yours.. still leaning bullish, but the situation is at least somewhat 'borderline'.

Friday 5 May 2017

Silver breaks mid term support

It was a very bearish week for the precious metals, with net weekly declines for Gold and Silver of -3.1% and -4.9% respectively. Near term outlooks offers a bounce, but the break of mid term rising trend in Silver - and the related miners, bodes badly for Gold.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


There was some serious carnage in commodity land this week, especially within the precious metals.

Whilst Gold broke first soft rising support, Silver broke the core rising support that extends back to the Dec'2015 low. This is a serious technical break, and the fact its been confirmed with a similar break in the Gold miners, does bode badly for Gold.

Unless there is a very significant rebound into end May, the mid term outlook for Silver will have to turn outright bearish, and Gold could be presumed to follow within another 1-2 months.

*for the record, my guess is we will see a rebound.