Thursday 31 July 2014

Monthly declines for the metals

July ended badly for the precious metals, with Thursday net changes of  -1.1% and -1.0% for Gold and Silver respectively. Across the month, Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -3.4% and -3.1% respectively.

Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels


*today was somewhat unusual in that despite a veritable basket of geo-political issues simmering.. the metals failed to catch a fear bid.

Whether it was an after effect of the latest QE taper or Argentinian debt concerns, but regardless, a poor month for the metals.

I'm still seeking a test of the giant $1000 threshold.... which seems more likely next year.

Friday 25 July 2014

A second week of declines

The precious metals saw a second consecutive week of declines, with Gold and Silver slipping by -0.2% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is very mixed, so long as the 2013 lows continue to hold.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


*Friday saw the metals manage some rather strong gains, GLD +1.2%, SLV +1.7%

Suffice to say, a second week of declines - despite the significant Friday gains.

The recent breakout from the down trend/resistance remains intact, and there is certainly viable upside.. so long as the 2013 lows are not broken below.

Regardless of any near term upside, I remain resigned to Gold/Silver seeing the 2013 lows broken at some point.. before a key multi-year floor is put in.

Friday 18 July 2014

Significant net weekly declines

The six week consecutive run of gains came to an end with significant weekly declines. Gold and Silver net weekly declines of -2.1% and -2.7% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, whilst the breakout from early June is holding.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Indeed, the near term outlook is pretty mixed.

The metals certainly can catch a 'fear bid', via any sporadic geo-political issues, as we saw just this past Thursday. Yet.. once the market calms down...the gains are quickly returned.

The big issue is when the 2013 lows will be broken. That could be this later this year..or not until 2015, and it is tricky commodity to predict on the best of days.

Regardless, I hold to Gold eventually testing the giant $1000 level, and probably slipping somewhat under it for a few months..perhaps the low $900s.

Thursday 17 July 2014

Gold jumps on geo-political concerns

With a Malaysian jet apparently shot down, and continued battles in Israel, Gold caught a rather strong 'fear bid', settling higher by a rather significant 1.7%. Near term outlook is somewhat mixed.

GLD, daily


Certainly, some sig' gains for the precious metals, but in the grand picture.. the gains really aren't that major.

The broader multi-year trend remains to the downside, whilst there is still a small (if decreasing) chance of Gold attempting to back test the broken $1500 threshold.

Wednesday 16 July 2014

Gold to $700 ?

The precious metals continue to see periodic multi-month rallies, but since the 2011 peak, the broader trend has unquestionably been to the downside. It is notable that one analyst is also offering a 'doomer' downside target of $700.

Gold, monthly'2, fib levels


..first.. see the video....


Full story @ CNBC 

So, Mr Jacobs is considering what to most is unthinkable. Not only does he boldly suggest that Gold will break below the $1000 threshold.. but falling almost 50% from current levels.

Certainly, 3 years ago - when the precious metals market had clearly broken, I put together a few Fibonacci monthly charts for Gold and Silver.

Back then, the notion of $700 Gold was ludicrous, but from a pure chart perspective, $700 would be the ultimate downside target - whether for deflationary reasons, or otherwise.

Suffice to say.. it was pretty interesting to see an analyst make such a call.

Tuesday 15 July 2014

Downside follow through

Despite opening a little higher, the precious metals turned lower in the morning, and closed significantly lower for the second consecutive day. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -0.9% and -1.1% respectively.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


As expected, we saw a second day to the downside for the precious metals. Silver is suggestive of further downside, at least to the gap zone - whilst Gold has already hit that initial target zone.

Interestingly, there is increasing talk of Gold $1000 today, even on clown finance TV.

I hold to the grander outlook, that the 2013 lows will be broken..whether this year..or next, with Gold eventually flooring in the $1000/900s.. and that would no doubt cause Silver to see similar scale declines.

Monday 14 July 2014

Big gap lower.. and then flat lining

Whilst US equities started the week on a fairly positive note, the precious metals opened sharply lower, but then effectively flat lined for the entirety of the day. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of a very significant -2.4% and -2.3% respectively.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


It was the biggest opening gap lower for the metals in many months, but there was no follow through.

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles have turned negative, and lower levels seem very probable for Tuesday.

Market awaits the Yellen

There remains major opportunity for the metals to recover as the week progresses, but that will be highly dependent upon how the market reacts to what Fed chair Yellen has to say.

Best guess... at least some further downside, but the weekly/monthly charts are suggestive of broader upside later this year.

*at the same time, I am STILL seeking the 2013 lows to be broken at some point, with a wash-out in least to the $1050/950 zone.

Friday 11 July 2014

Six weeks to the upside

It was a sixth consecutive week of gains for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of a rather significant 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, and the big $1500 threshold for Gold looks viable later this year.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Suffice to say... another rather useful gain for the gold bugs this week.

The big $1500 threshold looks viable for spot gold prices, which should equate to $26/27 for Silver.

Thursday 3 July 2014

A fifth week of gains

It was another week of gains (if somewhat minor) for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, and there is increasing chance of Gold testing the big $1500 threshold later this year.. along with Silver $27.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Near/mid term upside, but I'm still suspicious that the metals will slip lower next year, possibly taking out the 2013 lows.

Certainly though, short-metals is NOT the trade right now. Further, Copper prices are looking pretty bullish on the monthly cycle, and it would indeed indirectly suggest Gold has a fair chance of the big $1500 later this year.

It would seem... the Fed is finally starting to get the inflation is has been seeking since the collapse wave of 2008/09.