Tuesday 31 March 2015

A second month lower for Gold

There was continued weakness for the precious metals in March, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of -$30.50 (-2.5%) @ $1183.20, and +$0.02 (+0.1%) @ $16.60 respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains broadly bearish into the late summer.

Gold, monthly'2

Silver, monthly'2


Little to add.

Broader trend remains bearish... holding to original targets..

Primary.. Gold $1000...
Secondary..  $900/875 zone.. by late summer.

Friday 27 March 2015

A second week of gains

Whilst the equity market broadly fell, along with a weaker USD, there were further significant gains for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is very uncertain, whilst the broader trend remains bearish.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Little to add.

As the USD continues to cool.. there will be underlying upside on the metals. The recent gains in WTIC Oil, back over the $50 threshold are also helping.

It would still seem far more natural for Gold to test the giant $1000 threshold later this year.

Friday 20 March 2015

Metals gain as the USD weakens

With the USD seemingly unable to hold the giant DXY 100 threshold, the precious metals rebounded strongly. Gold and Silver saw significant net weekly gains of 2.4% and 7.4% respectively. If the USD continues to weaken to the 90/87 zone.. it would offer at least some multi-week gains to come.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


*first an update on the USD, weekly cycle...

It does appear we have a high chance of a mid term top around the giant DXY 100 threshold. A natural retrace to the 90/87 zone - where the key multi-year breakout occurred.. would be very natural. Broader upside to DXY 120.. and eventually 160s.. looks a given.

So.. a net weekly gain for the metals.. but as ever... the broader trend remains very bearish.

To me, it simply makes no sense that $1130 was the floor, and I'm still seeking $1000 Gold before the current wave from 2011 wraps up.

Wednesday 18 March 2015

Metals ramp on USD weakness

With the US Federal Reserve a little closer to raising US interest rates, the USD saw significant weakness. The declines really helped inspire the precious metals, with Gold and Silver settling higher by 2.0% and 3.1% respectively. The broader trend remains bearish though.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Suffice to say... one sig' daily gain does not break a primary down trend.

The $1000 threshold for Gold still looks due this spring/summer... even if the USD decline to DXY 92/88 zone by late summer.

Friday 13 March 2015

Another week lower for the metals

It was just another negative week for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.9% and -1.9% respectively. Gold looks set to break the $1130 low... and remains on track for the giant $1000 threshold this late spring/summer... along with Silver in the $12/10 zone.

GLD, weekly'3

SLV, weekly


Little to add.

Precious metals remain within broadly bearish down trends. The strengthening USD is causing massive problems for most commodities.

Best guess... Gold $1000.... perhaps 900/875 zone by Sept/Oct... along with Silver 12/10.

If correct, that has grave implications for the mining stocks.. with most set to lose a further 25/50%

Friday 6 March 2015

Fiercely bearish outlook for the metals

The down trend from the January high continues... and is accelerating. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of a very significant -3.6% and -4.3% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is exceptionally bearish, and Gold could be close to the giant $1000 threshold within the next month or two.

GLD, weekly'3 - 'best guess' outlook.

SLV, weekly


Suffice to say.. this net weekly decline was very much expected.. and indeed.. if this is some kind of sub'3 wave.. then it should take Gold close to the $1000 threshold.

There seems ZERO probability that Gold/Silver will be breaking the Jan' high until very late this year... if not spring 2016.

*as ever... if the metals continue to slide.. it will take the mining stocks with them. The miner ETF of GDX could easily slip to $12/10 zone if Gold manages to go sub $1000 by late summer.