Mixed month for the metals

It was a mixed month for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of -$5.10 (0.4%) @ $1234.20, and +$0.54 (3.6%) @ $15.46. Near term outlook threatens brief cooling, but the mid term outlook is bullish into the summer.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, Gold and Silver look set to push higher into the summer, not least if the USD continues to remain subdued, as the US Fed' look likely to delay the next rate hike to Q4.

Arguably, the only reason to be broadly bearish again will be if the Dec'2015 lows are taken out. Until then... the default trade is to the long side.
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*If correct, the implications are similarly bullish for the related mining stocks, even if the broader equity market implodes to the sp'1600/1500s.

Metals finally retracing

The precious metals are finally seeing a retrace of the very powerful gains that were built across Dec'2015-Feb'2016. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.9% and -4.0% respectively. Near term outlook threatens at least another 1-2% lower.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, we've seen six weeks of chop - as equities have broadly climbed, but we're now seen a decisive cool down.

This week's net declines are indeed the strongest declines since early December.

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Unless GLD sees a weekly close <112 (equiv' to spot Gold $1170), the broader breakout remains intact.

Metals still leaning on the upside

Price action in the precious metals was pretty choppy this week, but broadly, still leaning on the upside. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 0.4% and 2.1% respectively. It is notable that Silver broke a new multi-month high, back to levels last seen in Oct'2015.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The weakening USD is certainly helping the precious metals.

Yet, arguably far more important are some of the bigger 'system risks', and that is increasingly giving Gold - and to a lesser extent, Silver, an underlying 'fear bid'.

If the broader equity/capital markets see renewed upset this spring, and into the summer, then Gold and Silver both look set for much higher levels.

*if correct, the related mining stocks will similarly rise, even as the broader equity market implodes. 

Mixed week for the metals

It was a rather mixed week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -0.9% and -0.1% respectively. Near term threatens some cooling, but broadly, Gold - and to a lesser extent.. Silver, look set for powerful upside across the spring and into early summer.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, regardless of any cooling across the next week or two, the precious metals look set for powerful upside this spring.

This is based on the core notion that equities will see renewed downside to the sp'1700/1600s, and the metals will catch an increasingly powerful 'fear bid'.
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*If the precious metals do indeed continue to broadly climb, the related mining stocks will naturally follow, even if the broader equity market implodes.

Powerful net weekly gains

The precious metals saw renewed upside, with Gold and Silver attaining powerful net weekly gains of 3.0% and 5.3% respectively. Short term continues to threaten a retrace, but broadly, the outlook is increasingly bullish, not least if the US/world capital markets are upset this spring.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*it is notable that Silver has not yet broken the high of 3 weeks ago.

Gold is really capturing mainstream attention as the broader downward trend has likely concluded.
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Near term - into the FOMC of March 16th, there remains threat of a retrace to around $1200/1180, but broadly, the $1300 threshold is now an easy target.

If you believe - as I do, that US/world capital markets will see renewed upside this spring, and probably across the summer/early autumn, then Gold @ $1500 is now a viable target.
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**If correct, the related Gold/Silver mining stocks will likely double up from current levels, with GDX in the 35/45 zone.