Just another bear flag

The multi-week up trend for the metals has ended, leaving yet another bear flag on the bigger weekly cycles. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.9% and -3.7% respectively. The summer 2013 lows look set to be taken out...its just a matter of when.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are again starting to assert themselves, and we have a clear rollover on the daily charts (not shown) for the precious metals.

The weekly close is pretty bearish, but far more negative is the price structure, which is a very clear multi-week bear flag.

With the Fed cutting QE, inflationary fears are again very low, and both equity and commodity markets look vulnerable to significant downside in the coming weeks, if not months.

Post taper depression

It would seem likely that the precious metals are suffering from a case of PTD - post taper depression. With the Fed cutting QE for a second time, inflationary concerns are again lessening. Gold and Silver closed with significant declines of -2.2% and -2.8% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Yesterday the metals were surprisingly resilient, despite the taper. Yet..here we are.a mere day later..and the metals have again broken significantly lower.

Today's daily declines are indeed significant, and bode for a weak Friday..and probably a negative start to February. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is rolling over, and is offering downside for the next 3-6 trading days.
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Mid term targets remain GOLD 1050/950, with SILVER 12/10.
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Metals trying to cope with Taper'2

With the Fed launching QE-taper'2, the precious metals were highly vulnerable, but managed to hold reasonable gains. Gold and Silver higher by 1.1% and 0.9% respectively. Near term remains moderately bullish, with Gold holding around old broken support.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Opening gains for the metals, but then moderate chop across the day. Price action is still not offering a clear break to the upside..above old broken support - now resistance.

Indeed, Silver/SLV closed with a black-fail candle, and that doesn't exactly bode well for Thursday.
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Metals start the week... weak!

With the US equity and commodity markets weak, the precious metals were not immune. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.1% and -1.5% respectively. With the FOMC this week, there is likely to be a major move one way or another...weekly/monthly charts would suggest....lower.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

All things considered, the past month or two has been just sideways churn for the precious metals. The best the bulls have managed to do is slowly grind Gold to the old support level of GLD 122. With Silver failing to follow Gold above the old support...things aren't looking very strong.

With the bigger weekly/monthly cycles still outright bearish, there is little reason not to believe that current price action is just another large bear flag.

If the Fed continue to taper this week, that will likely not help the metals!

A fifth week higher for Gold

Whilst the equity market saw a rough end to the week, Gold saw continued gains. Gold and Silver closed the week with a net weekly change of  +1.1% and -1.8% respectively. This was the fifth week higher for Gold, and is the most consistent up trend since Aug/Sept 2012.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say...another week higher for Gold. More importantly, Gold closed just above old broken support on the daily cycle (not shown).

As for the decline in Silver.., well, its more vulnerable to broader market weakness, and Gold is certainly going to benefit more as a 'safe haven' trade.
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There is bigger resistance around GLD 125/130..and indeed...it won't be easy to go much higher than that this spring.
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mid term targets remain..GOLD 1050/950..SILVER 12/10.

Still stuck under old support

Despite a pretty strong set of gains, the precious metals remain stuck under the old - and rather important, broken support. Gold and Silver closed with net daily gains of 2.2% and 1.1% respectively. Near term risk of a breakout, but weekly/monthly charts argue against it.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

For those gold bugs getting overly excited out there, I can only refer them (not posted today), the bigger weekly/monthly charts.

Even if the metals stop broadly falling, it is going to take until early 2015 for underlying price momentum to battle back to flat..from what are extremely negative levels.
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mid-term targets remain unchanged...

GOLD 1050/950
SILVER, 12/10

Metals start the week on a downer

Gold and Silver began the week in a particularly weak fashion. In pre-market, Gold snapped lower by -$17, and remained negative across the day. Gold and Silver closed with net daily declines of -1.0% and -1.8% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Nothing has changed in the bigger picture.

The precious metals remain under strong multiple deflationary pressures, and look set for further downside across 2014, if not also much of 2015.

Mid-term targets remain: GOLD 1050/950, with Silver 12/10

A fourth week higher for Gold

Whilst the equity market saw general chop, the metals showed further moderate strength. Gold and Silver closed with net weekly gains of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. Despite the gains, the metals remain within broader downward trends - since the key break in April 2013.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So...a fourth week higher for Gold. The summer 2013 lows are broadly holding (although GLD very briefly pierced the low in late December).

Clearly, the metals are seeing some moderate buying interest, but still.. the bigger down trends STILL continue.

Even if we see a 3-6 month rally this year, I'm still highly suspicious that the final low in the metals won't be until 2015. Of course, right now..that seems a very long way out.
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mid-term targets remain... Gold 1050/950... Silver 12/10.

If that is the case, it will most certainly keep the mining stocks under severe downward pressure for another 6-18mths.

A third week higher for Gold

The precious metals continue to battle to hold the June 2013 lows. Gold saw a third consecutive week of gains (+0.7%), although Silver was a touch weak (-0.1%). The near term trend remains moderately bullish, but the broader trend remains very bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add. Near term strength, but holding under old broken support.

Mid term targets remain: Gold 1050/950, with Silver 12/10.

Metals stuck under broken support

The precious metals continue to see choppy price action, but more importantly, the metals show little sign of the strength necessary to break back above the old broken support. Gold and Silver closed the day lower by -0.6% and -1.5% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Nothing has changed. Every day of side ways price chop is just helping to reset the daily MACD cycle, and within 3-5 days, metals will be at risk again of breaking the June lows.

Mid term targets remain: Gold, 1050/950, with Silver 12/10 - although the latter might be propped up if the broader economy holds together into mid 2015.

Interesting weekly gains

The precious metals are still battling to hold above the June 2013 lows. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 1.8% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is very uncertain, but mid-term downside remains the broader trend.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say..it remains a marginal situation. There is moderate chance of a multi-month rally into the early summer, but I find it implausible that Gold won't at least briefly test the big $1000 threshold at some point this year..or early 2015.

If Gold does eventually decline to around $1000, this has very bearish implications for the mining stocks.

A bounce to start the year

The precious metals are desperately trying to hold above the June lows, and started the year with a marginally interesting bounce. Gold and Silver settled with daily gains of 1.7% and 2.7% respectively. Near term trend remains weak though.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Baring a few daily closes above GLD 122, today's bounce is just that..another bounce..of which we have seen a hundred or so, since the peak in spring 2011.

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spot metal targets remain: GOLD 1050/950, SILVER, 12/10.