Friday 31 May 2013

Another lousy month for the metals

Despite another intra-month rally, the precious metals ended the month badly. Gold and Silver saw declines in May of 5.6% and 8.4% respectively. Gold is now $1393, with Silver at $22.24. The monthly trend looks dire, and there is simply no sign of a turn/levelling phase.

Gold, monthly, fib-levels

Silver, monthly, fib-levels


Despite a fairly big ramp in May, the metals still failed to close the month flat.

The declines of 6-8% are clearly still indicative of what could easily be deemed a multi-month collapse wave in progress.

The notion - as is still loudly touted in the gold bug community, that the metals have floored, is indeed nonsense. The monthly charts are absolutely clear. We are merely at month'2 down - after the decade-long up cycle.

Two months down..and there is probably a great many more down months to come.

Primary downside targets...

Gold - $1100/1000
Silver - $21 (already HIT).

The scary thing for Silver, is that there really isn't any kind of support until around $12 an oz, possibly the more logical/psy' level of $10.

Naturally, any gold bug reading the above targets would call them crazy, but then, those are the same people who have been touting Gold 5k and Silver $100 for the last ten years.

Eventually, the metals will recover..and break new historic highs, but the monthly charts are indeed clear. There is no sign that the current trend is ending, indeed..its really only just started.

Friday 24 May 2013

Slight gains across the week

Gold and Silver managed slight gains across the week, but closed well below their highs, with gains of 2% and 1% respectively. Silver actually made a new low, whilst Gold just managed to hold the low of mid April. Near term trend looks weak, but with risk of a moderate bounce.

GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow


One notable aspect was that both Gold and Silver managed a blue candle on the weekly rainbow charts. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle ticked higher - although still deep in negative territory, and there looks to be viable moderate upside across the next few weeks.

However, the declining weekly 10MA has proved to be massive resistance since Nov'2012. Right now, that is GLD 143 and SLV 24s, and is set to keep falling for the next few weeks, even if actual Gold/Silver prices can rally a little.

Best case upside is possibly the second price gap of GLD 148, and that might equate to SLV in the low 25s.

Generally though, the monthly charts are warning of much lower levels across 2013, and indeed..into 2014/15

Wednesday 22 May 2013

Massive reversal day for the metals

The precious metals both opened significantly higher, and soared in mid-morning, but the gains Gold slipped from gains of almost $40, and closed -$10. Silver was up almost $1, and closed -10 cents or so. Near term trend looks.... very unstable.




With Bernanke speaking this morning, and the FOMC minutes not pleasing the market, we sure did see some major action in the precious metals market today.

There will no doubt be a huge number of annoyed traders, not least those trading without pretty tight stops. Those metal bears who exited at the open will be understandably dismayed to have seen the metals collapse across the day.

Near term trend looks very unstable, and Gold is now on the edge of taking out the recent double bottom. If GLD <130, a quick drop to 120 looks viable...even within a single day.

Monday 20 May 2013

Metals in strong morning reversal

With overnight sharp declines, the metals opened lower, but immediately started battling back higher. There was a very sharp jump in the 12pm hour, and after a little pause, Gold/Silver climbed into the close, with gains of 2.9 and 3.7% respectively.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


So, a pretty exciting day for those watching/trading the precious metals.

Silver put in a new low, although Gold held just above its April low.

Today saw a rather classic bullish engulfing candles for both metals, and the likelihood is for further upside, at least for another few days.

*weekly/monthly charts still look pretty ugly though, and will remain so, unless the declining resistance (which is indeed a very long way up) is closed above.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now ticking back higher, and if what we have just seen is a smaller down cycle, then a new multi-week up cycle can now begin.

If that is the case, then it bodes very well for the mining stocks, including GDX/GDXJ.

Friday 17 May 2013

Gold set to make new lows

Whilst the main equity market keeps on rising, Gold and Silver continue their month on month declines. Gold and Silver declined by 6.0 and 6.7% respectively, across this week  Unusually, the normal trading ratio of 2:1 did not occur. Near term weekly trend looks...dire.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


A bad end to the week for the metals, all the way into the Friday close, with Gold slipping around $30, and Silver 50 cents or so.

Weekly charts look terrible, and we now have a weekly close under what I believe are multi-week bear flags.

Its possible we'll see a brief bounce next Mon-Wednesday (the Bernanke speaks on Wednesday morning to US Congress), but generally, prices look set to keep falling in the weeks..and months to come.

Near term price targets:  GLD, 120, SLV 19/17s.

Thursday 16 May 2013

Silver remains under the bear flag

Despite a small bounce of 0.9%, Silver remains under the bear flag, as seen on the weekly cycle. Gold is stronger, but slipped -0.4% today. If Gold breaks the previous cycle low - as Silver has already done, then Silver looks set to be trading under $20 in the very near term.

SLV, weekly


A bit of a mixed day for the precious metals, with Silver a little higher, but Gold a little lower. The weekly trends though look bad, especially for Silver.

Silver has already taken out the collapse wave low, and is remains struggling. Considering the even bigger monthly charts, SLV looks likely to trading <20 within the near term. I suppose it might take another month or two, but it could easily be just a few days away.

*I am short SLV earlier today, from just under 22.00, seeking an exit <20.

Wednesday 15 May 2013

Silver takes out the collapse wave low

A rough day for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver falling 2.3 and 3.5% respectively. Worse of all, Silver has now put in a daily close under the low from mid April. Gold is stronger, but the trend for both look very weak. Monthly charts are warning of much lower levels this summer.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Suffice to say, its a very bad day for the Gold bugs. Today's close was very decisive, and showed no sign of a bounce - unlike the last few weeks.

We have the large multi-week bear flags being confirmed..and broken below.

All thats need now to confirm a major new wave lower is for Gold to take out its mid April low. That seems very likely.

Primary downside targets remain... GLD 120,  SLV 19/17

Tuesday 14 May 2013

Precious metals remain weak

Whilst equities continue to rally, the precious metals remain weak. Gold and Silver saw declines of 0.4 and 1.0% respectively. Near term looks especially weak, but its very difficult to know if the recent collapse lows will be breached later this month/June.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Price action is a real mess in the metals, especially for Silver - which remains very close to the recent collapse wave lows. We saw the third consecutive reversal (hollow red) candle on GLD, and there was also one today for SLV.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking low for both Gold and Silver, and is set to go negative cycle within the next 2-4 days.

Its very difficult to call how this is going to turn out, but the bigger weekly/monthly charts warn of much lower levels in the months ahead.

Friday 10 May 2013

Slight declines for the week

Whilst equities continue to melt higher, Gold and Silver saw a little weakness start to return, and closed -1.8% and -1.3% respectively on the week. The strength in the US Dollar has been a real problem, and the issue now is whether the metals take out the recent collapse wave lows.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


It is extremely difficult to have any real confidence as to whether the recent lows will be taken out. The daily charts are certainly rolling over again, and the weekly charts are offering bear flags - especially for Silver.

The monthly charts are also STILL ticking lower, and so the default outlook would have to be for 'further weakness'.

Even though the USD was higher in the past two trading days, the weekly/monthly charts look vulnerable. If the USD does break to the downside - with further strength in the Euro, then the metals might be able to catch a break, and make a challenge of the old broken support.

Yet, broken support will be extremely tough to break through.

Best guess...Gold and Silver FAIL to get a series of daily/weekly closes above the old support - GLD 148/ SLV 25.

Downside targets remain : GLD 120, and SLV 19/17.

Tuesday 7 May 2013

Metals starting to weaken again

Whilst the main equity market just keeps on rallying, the precious metals saw some weakness again. Gold was especially softer, closing -1.2%, whilst Silver only a touch lower, -0.3%. Near term trend is somewhat uncertain, a further minor wave higher is still viable.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Whether we get a further wave higher or not, it still looks like the precious metals will weaken for at least one further wave lower.

Targets remain GLD 120 and SLV in the 19/17s. That could happen rather quickly if the previous lows are taken out.

As ever, price action in Copper will also be a major issue.

Friday 3 May 2013

Precious metals moderately higher

Whilst the US equity market closed the week at new highs, the precious metals saw a choppy week. Earlier declines were recovered, with Gold and Silver closing the week 0.8 and 0.65% higher respectively. There is still huge overhead old broken support to retake.

GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow


The weekly minor gains for the precious metals are kinda interesting, but until old support is retaken, the primary trend is still downward.

Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is now ticking higher for both, but its still deeply in negative territory. On any basis, its like to be another 4-6 weeks before the metals are back to a positive cycle.

Copper saw a VERY significant Friday gain of 6%, and this is one very important aspect to keep focused on. If Copper has floored in the low $3s, then are we looking a new multi-month up cycle across the summer?

Obvious targets in the near term - both at the weekly 10MA (still declining)

GLD - 148
SLV - 26

Both look feasible in the very near term, but what really matters are weekly/monthly closes above those levels. That will be...difficult.