Tuesday 31 January 2017

A bullish January for the metals

With a weakening USD, the month ended on a positive note for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver higher by 1.4% and 2.5% respectively. Across the month, Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $59.70 (5.2%) to $1211.40, and $1.55 (9.7%) to $17.54 respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bullish unless the Dec'2016 lows are broken.

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly


We have a key multi-year floor in Dec'2015. The Dec'2016 low now makes for the first key higher low.

Now its a case of whether Gold and Silver can break the summer 2016 highs. If that is done, it will absolutely cement the 2015 core low, and the 2016 higher low.

Lets be clear....

If we see Gold $1400s and Silver in the $22s, it will give high confidence that the next giant multi-year up wave is already well underway.

A monthly close for Gold in the $1400s will offer a test of the 2011 high of $1923.70... although that does seem well out of range this year.

Any monthly close for Silver in the $22s will offer further upside to at least the $30s by late 2017/spring 2018. That is of course though, still well below the bubble peak of $49.82 in April 2011.

The near/mid term bullish outlook will only be negated if Gold/Silver break the Dec'2016 lows.

Yours truly is now looking to get involved in the metals/miners trade.

Friday 27 January 2017

Mixed week for the metals

It was a somewhat mixed week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of -1.4% and +0.2% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is very uncertain, as the metals are clearly stuck just under old support... now acting as resistance.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Gold and silver are seeing resistance at what was once support.

The USD remains broadly strong, and its difficult to see Gold/Silver having broad upside, if the dollar is in the DXY 105/110 zone later this year.

For now... its a confusing mess.

The two indirect suggestions that gold/silver won't break the Dec'2016.. or more importantly - the Dec'2015 lows, are copper... and the related gold/silver miners.

Best guess? I'm with copper and the gold/silver miners. I'll be looking for a break higher into the early spring. I need to see SLV >$18, and GLD >$124 to have real bullish confidence.

Friday 20 January 2017

A fourth week higher

The precious metals managed a fourth consecutive week of net weekly gains, with Gold and Silver +0.7% and +1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed though, as the USD looks prone to renewed strength, and that will put downward pressure on gold/silver.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


*black fail candles for both Gold and Silver.. at what is an area of resistance. Such a candle type leans bearish... at least in the short term.

Suffice to add, its a bit of a messy situation.

Clearly, the short term trend IS bullish. Seen on the bigger weekly chart, we have a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle that should see a bullish cross for both Gold and Silver within 1-2 weeks.

The big problem for the precious metals remains the strong dollar. Its near impossible to see significant dollar cooling across 2017. Indeed, broad upside to the DXY 120s look a given. Even if that is spread across 2-3 years, such dollar strength will be a perpetual downward pressure on the precious metals.

Friday 13 January 2017

A third week of gains

The precious metals continue to battle upward. Gold and Silver settled higher for a third consecutive week, by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, as the bigger weekly MACD cycle is set for a bullish cross within 2-3 weeks.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Suffice to add, the ongoing gains are interesting, but more broadly, the metals still look a little suspect. Its going to take another few weeks to have any real confidence that the Dec'2015 lows won't be broken.

For the more conservative out there, Gold $1300s remain a valid level to have confidence.

For the ultra cautious... waiting to chase until Gold in the $1400s.