Another rough year for the metals

The last day of the trading year was somewhat appropriate for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver settling lower by -1.4% and -3.3% respectively. Across the year, Gold -$21.60 (-1.8%), whilst Silver faired far worse, -$3.83 (-19.7%). Outlook into mid 2015 remains bearish, with Gold $1000/900... and Silver 12/10.


Gold, monthly2, fib levels

Silver, monthly2, fib levels

Summary

*the following remains the 'best guess' wave count for this multi-year retrace, after having rallied a full decade.

GLD, monthly'2

SLV, monthly'2

Summary

Suffice to say... for the gold bugs, it was another year of disappointment.

To me.. the continued weakness was most certainly not surprising, and I hold to the original targets from spring 2012.. when the key break of trend occurred.

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*I will be looking to go heavy long the metals (ETFs and physical), AND miners in summer 2015. For now, I remain more than content to sit on the sidelines.. and wait for another sig' wave lower, which should at least take Gold to $1000.. if not briefly 900/875.

On any basis, going long metals/miners, when Gold is around $1000/900, seems like a superb level to get involved for the long term.
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Update from silverfuturist

One day down.... one day up

The precious metals continue to see some rather significant day to day swings. After the sig' Monday declines, Gold and Silver saw net Tuesday gains of 1.3% and 3.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains 'choppy'... but within a much broader down trend.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... it remains a real choppy mess... but both metals remain close to breaking new multi-year lows.

Another bad Monday for metals

The metals have begun another week with rather significant Monday declines. Gold and Silver settled -1.0% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued weakness, within a much broader down trend. Gold still looks set to test the giant $1000 threshold in 2015.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add.

The recent multi-week bear flags have been provisionally confirmed.. but the metals are yet to break new cycle lows.

Regardless of any further short term chop... the broader trend remains bearish into mid 2015.

Choppy week for the metals

With significant Friday gains, the metals managed to close broadly flat for the week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.1% and -0.2% respectively. Price structure remains a large bear flag, which has already been arguably confirmed.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Most notable... King $ remains King.. set to strengthen across most.. if not all of 2015, and that should keep strong downward pressure on Gold, Silver and even Copper.
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*I've zero interest in being long the metals until Gold is trading around $1000, if not the 900/875 zone by mid 2015.

If metals remain broadly weak.. the mining stocks will similarly remain subdued.. regardless of further main market strength.

Metals falling into year end

With price structure having been a rather large multi-week bear flag, the metals have arguably now decisively broken lower. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.9% and -2.5% respectively. Outlook is offering a year end close for Gold of $1100/1080.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The metals were increasingly weak across the day, and the daily close is arguably pretty important.

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Holding to longer term downside targets...

Gold $1000, if not 900/875 by summer 2015.
Silver 12/10

Significant weekly declines

Whilst the broader US capital markets were especially pleased this week, the precious metals are back on the slide. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.2% and -5.6% respectively. Price structure remains a very big multi-week bear flag, next downside target is $1100/1080 for Gold... within the next 2-4 weeks.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... the weekly declines are pretty significant.

The bear flag has arguably already been broken.. although it is somewhat dependent on how a given chartist might draw it.

In any case... precious metals are due another wave lower. Gold looks set for the $1000 threshold in the first half of 2015. The only issue is whether 900/875 zone is possible before a multi-year floor is put in. Right now... I'm guessing ... YES.
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*the broad USD strength... set to break into the 90s.. and hit DXY 100 next year... is going to be a real problem for the those in gold bug land.

FOMC fails to inspire the metals

Whilst equities soared, the precious metals failed to be part of the party. Gold continued to cool, settling -0.6%, although Silver did manage a fractional gain of 0.1%. Broader outlook is for much lower levels, with Gold still to test the giant $1000 threshold, if not eventually 900/875 zone.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add.

So.. the last FOMC of the year does nothing to change policy (as expected)... and for the metals.. this was not enough to inspire any sustainable gains.

Price structure remains a giant bear flag for both metals... and a major snap lower is still due.

The strong dollar is going to provide added downward pressure on the metals... into next year.

Poor start to the week for the metals

The week has started pretty grim for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of a very significant -2.4% and -5.1% respectively. With the last FOMC of the year this Wednesday, there is high threat of much lower levels into year end.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... a very poor start to the week... and with a very clear multi-week bear flag, outlook is very bearish into year end and January.
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A second week of gains

Whilst the broader US equity market saw some significant weakness, there was further strength in the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.6% and 4.4% respectively. Price structure remains a large bear flag, and there remains high probability of another major wave lower.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Price structure remains a large multi-week bear flag.

With the FOMC next Wednesday, I am seeking renewed weakness, with a break of the flag... next downside target is spot gold of $1100/1080.. which is still viable before year end.

Regardless of the rest of the year... the broader trend remains bearish into mid 2015.

Weekly gains, but very bearish outlook

The precious metals managed rather significant gains this week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.1% and 5.3% respectively. However, price structure is yet another multi week bear flag... another wash out into year end looks highly probable.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... with the US dollar at five year highs, and set for much higher levels (not least if the ECB start a QE-pomo program), the metals look highly vulnerable.
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Holding to broader downside targets...

Gold $1000, if not the 900/875 zone in second half of 2015.
Silver 12/10
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If those targets are correct, the mining stocks will remain very subdued, regardless of how strong the broader equity market is.

Overnight declines, but strong daily gains

It was no surprise to see significant overnight declines - not least via the Swiss 'no' vote, but the Monday gains were a surprise. Gold and Silver settled with strong gains of 4.0% and 6.4% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, within what remains a broader down trend.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

It was the biggest net daily gain for the precious metals of the year (I believe), but even more significant.. when considering the overnight declines (Gold hit $1141).. this was the biggest 24hr swing in a very considerable time (at least spring 2011, when the bubble burst).

However, even a brief review of the daily cycles will show that the metals have seen some pretty wild moves since early November.

Despite today's powerful gains... I hold to the original broader downside targets.

Awaiting a Sunday night surprise

The precious metals ended the week with a major smack down. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.8% and -5.1% respectively. Near term outlook are for new multi-year lows... with broader weakness into mid 2015.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Aside from the Friday declines, which were indeed VERY destructive, and a clear reminder of the broader underlying weakness.. there is something rather interesting ahead for this Sunday.

The Swiss are set to vote on increasing their gold holdings. The thing is, the planned 1500 ton purchase program is across 5 years, and is really not that much in the grand picture.. I simply don't think it matters that much to the broader gold market.

There is (not surprisingly) a lot of talk in the gold bug community about how a 'YES' vote outcome would help herald a massive new rally in Gold is imminent, but I just don't see it as particularly important.


Sunday night surprise?

Considering the break of the bear flag today (see GLD/Gold on any daily chart)... best guess is that metals will see further decline early next week. It would not be at all surprising to see a $50/75 decline in the Sunday night futures. Next 'soft target' is the $1090/80 zone, and that could be hit as early as next week.

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Holding to core downside targets...

Gold $1000/900
Silver $12/10

Copper will be useful as an indirect guide to when the precious metals (and even oil) have floored.

Copper monthly, monthly

A strong net monthly decline of -6.3% to $2.86. Copper looks set to floor somewhere in the $2.30/20s... in Q1 of 2015....

Another weekly gain

The precious metals saw some dynamic swings across the week. Gold and Silver both saw net weekly gains of 0.9%. Near term outlook is mixed... and the broader trend remains unquestionably still very bearish... to Gold $1000.. if not the low 900s in 2015.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*the metals opened significantly higher this morning, but with the USD holding strong gains - at the highest level since summer 2010, the metals cooled.
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Little to add... a second weekly gain for Silver.. whilst Gold managed a third consecutive gain.

Overall though, this weeks gains do little to negate the broader downward trend.

Wild swings in the metals

The precious metals saw some dynamic price action, with a snap lower in the morning.. then an equal snap higher... only to see further weakness in the afternoon. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*first, an extra chart, highlighting the intraday swings...

GLD, 5min

There was talk across the morning about some Swiss vote... but regardless of that issue, the price action was certainly dynamic.

Overall price structure on Gold is a large bear flag.

I see nothing to suggest that $1000 won't be hit.. although with barely 6 trading weeks of the year left... $1000 looks unlikely until Jan/Feb.

Gold breaks back over the broken floor

With the USD continuing to cool from recent multi-year highs, the metals are getting an extra kick higher. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. With Gold breaking back over the broken floor... near term outlook is turning bullish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*it is notable that whilst Gold has re-taken the old floor from last year, the more industrial metals of Silver and Copper remain broadly weak.
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Suffice to say... the gains in Gold are interesting.. but I just can't see this as being anything much than another bounce.

The question any Gold bug/bull needs to ask...

WHY would $1130 be a key multi-year floor?
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Happy Birthday GLD

No doubt.. many in the gold bug community remain utterly contemptuous of the precious metal ETFs, but regardless, GLD is ten years old today...

GLD launched Nov'18 2004

CNBC did an interesting item today...

Cheerleaders like shiny things too

I'm not sure whether the above item is a contrary indicator, but seriously... the paper instruments of GLD and SLV have been a huge success story. Both have offered the retail trader an easy and flexible way to trade the precious metals.

I would agree there are some 'questionable' issues about both instruments, but I don't see them going away any time soon.

Metals end the week strongly

After four days of mixed weak chop, the precious metals managed strong Friday gains, with Gold and Silver settling higher by 2.5% and 4.3% respectively. Across the week, Gold and Silver gained 1.3% and 3.4% respectively. Broader outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, were it not for the morning reversal in the USD - which swung from +0.5% to -0.3%, the metals would have likely failed to see any kind of reversal.

Gold had opened lower by -$12...and it only took 90mins to flip to +$12.

Despite building gains across the day, the broader outlook remains unchanged.
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Gold looks set to test the $1000 threshold... probably to the low 900s before a key multi-year floor...next year.

Bad start to the week for the metals

The precious metals opened moderately lower, and slid lower across the entire day. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -2.1% and -1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is very bearish, with a broader target of Gold $1000/900s.


GLD,daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add.

The Friday gain - as is the case for the miners, was merely another bounce (itself much like last Monday).. and we're back on the slide.

Metals and miners both look headed much lower into year end.

Ending the week on a positive note

The broader downward trend in the precious metals continues, although Friday did see a very significant bounce. Gold and Silver settled with net daily gains of 2.8% and 2.0% respectively. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net changes of +0.3% and -2.5% respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*the closing weekly candle for Gold was a spike-floor candle, but this was not the case in Silver. Considering the break of the recent floor, I am going to dismiss this as a bounce.
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Last Thursday the floor was broken on Gold - $1179, and with that break, the door is now wide open to the giant $1000 threshold.

Bounces are to be expected, and it is notable that Gold broke a 3 year low of $1137 on Wednesday.

Renewed weakness seems highly likely, with sub'1100s likely within a week or two.

The only issue is whether Gold test the giant $1000 threshold this side of Christmas.. or in early 2015.

Just another day for the metals

The broader down trend for the precious metals continues. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -2.1% and -4.6% respectively. The next (rather obvious) support for Gold is the giant $1000 threshold.. which is very viable before year end.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add from the dozens of posts across the last few years.

Metals remain weak... and the rising USD is only adding to the underlying downward pressure.
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*implications for the miners are obvious.. and we're seeing new lows on a very regular basis.

Metals in free fall

It was a very bad week for the precious metals, with Gold unable to hold the 2013 floor of $1179. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -4.8% and -6.1% respectively. Across the month, Gold and Silver slipped by -$37 (-3.1%) and -$0.86 (-5.1%) respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*an update on the monthly cycles...

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

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Silver has lead the way... and Gold has duly followed, losing the 2013 floor. The door is now wide open to the giant Gold $1000 threshold.. which looks likely to be tested before year end.

For me, the only issue is whether Gold will eventually see a further low after a bounce from around $1000. The $900/875 zone remains a viable multi-year floor by late 2015/early 2016.


Grave Implications for the miners

If you believe in $1000 Gold, then it bodes for a further 25/35% off most mining stocks in the relatively near term.

Metals falling.. with the end of QE

With the Fed announcing the termination of QE3, the USD resumed the climb, and that put extra downward pressure on the metals. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.4% and -0.8% respectively. Near term offers a crash wave of 10/15% across November.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say.. the broader trend remains very weak.

Primary target remains Gold $1000.. with Silver in the low teens... if not 12/10 by mid 2015.