Friday 28 November 2014

Awaiting a Sunday night surprise

The precious metals ended the week with a major smack down. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.8% and -5.1% respectively. Near term outlook are for new multi-year lows... with broader weakness into mid 2015.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Aside from the Friday declines, which were indeed VERY destructive, and a clear reminder of the broader underlying weakness.. there is something rather interesting ahead for this Sunday.

The Swiss are set to vote on increasing their gold holdings. The thing is, the planned 1500 ton purchase program is across 5 years, and is really not that much in the grand picture.. I simply don't think it matters that much to the broader gold market.

There is (not surprisingly) a lot of talk in the gold bug community about how a 'YES' vote outcome would help herald a massive new rally in Gold is imminent, but I just don't see it as particularly important.

Sunday night surprise?

Considering the break of the bear flag today (see GLD/Gold on any daily chart)... best guess is that metals will see further decline early next week. It would not be at all surprising to see a $50/75 decline in the Sunday night futures. Next 'soft target' is the $1090/80 zone, and that could be hit as early as next week.

Holding to core downside targets...

Gold $1000/900
Silver $12/10

Copper will be useful as an indirect guide to when the precious metals (and even oil) have floored.

Copper monthly, monthly

A strong net monthly decline of -6.3% to $2.86. Copper looks set to floor somewhere in the $2.30/20s... in Q1 of 2015....

Friday 21 November 2014

Another weekly gain

The precious metals saw some dynamic swings across the week. Gold and Silver both saw net weekly gains of 0.9%. Near term outlook is mixed... and the broader trend remains unquestionably still very bearish... to Gold $1000.. if not the low 900s in 2015.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


*the metals opened significantly higher this morning, but with the USD holding strong gains - at the highest level since summer 2010, the metals cooled.

Little to add... a second weekly gain for Silver.. whilst Gold managed a third consecutive gain.

Overall though, this weeks gains do little to negate the broader downward trend.

Wednesday 19 November 2014

Wild swings in the metals

The precious metals saw some dynamic price action, with a snap lower in the morning.. then an equal snap higher... only to see further weakness in the afternoon. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


*first, an extra chart, highlighting the intraday swings...

GLD, 5min

There was talk across the morning about some Swiss vote... but regardless of that issue, the price action was certainly dynamic.

Overall price structure on Gold is a large bear flag.

I see nothing to suggest that $1000 won't be hit.. although with barely 6 trading weeks of the year left... $1000 looks unlikely until Jan/Feb.

Tuesday 18 November 2014

Gold breaks back over the broken floor

With the USD continuing to cool from recent multi-year highs, the metals are getting an extra kick higher. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. With Gold breaking back over the broken floor... near term outlook is turning bullish.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


*it is notable that whilst Gold has re-taken the old floor from last year, the more industrial metals of Silver and Copper remain broadly weak.

Suffice to say... the gains in Gold are interesting.. but I just can't see this as being anything much than another bounce.

The question any Gold bug/bull needs to ask...

WHY would $1130 be a key multi-year floor?

Happy Birthday GLD

No doubt.. many in the gold bug community remain utterly contemptuous of the precious metal ETFs, but regardless, GLD is ten years old today...

GLD launched Nov'18 2004

CNBC did an interesting item today...

Cheerleaders like shiny things too

I'm not sure whether the above item is a contrary indicator, but seriously... the paper instruments of GLD and SLV have been a huge success story. Both have offered the retail trader an easy and flexible way to trade the precious metals.

I would agree there are some 'questionable' issues about both instruments, but I don't see them going away any time soon.

Friday 14 November 2014

Metals end the week strongly

After four days of mixed weak chop, the precious metals managed strong Friday gains, with Gold and Silver settling higher by 2.5% and 4.3% respectively. Across the week, Gold and Silver gained 1.3% and 3.4% respectively. Broader outlook remains bearish.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


Suffice to say, were it not for the morning reversal in the USD - which swung from +0.5% to -0.3%, the metals would have likely failed to see any kind of reversal.

Gold had opened lower by -$12...and it only took 90mins to flip to +$12.

Despite building gains across the day, the broader outlook remains unchanged.

Gold looks set to test the $1000 threshold... probably to the low 900s before a key multi-year year.

Monday 10 November 2014

Bad start to the week for the metals

The precious metals opened moderately lower, and slid lower across the entire day. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -2.1% and -1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is very bearish, with a broader target of Gold $1000/900s.


SLV, daily


Little to add.

The Friday gain - as is the case for the miners, was merely another bounce (itself much like last Monday).. and we're back on the slide.

Metals and miners both look headed much lower into year end.

Friday 7 November 2014

Ending the week on a positive note

The broader downward trend in the precious metals continues, although Friday did see a very significant bounce. Gold and Silver settled with net daily gains of 2.8% and 2.0% respectively. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net changes of +0.3% and -2.5% respectively.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


*the closing weekly candle for Gold was a spike-floor candle, but this was not the case in Silver. Considering the break of the recent floor, I am going to dismiss this as a bounce.

Last Thursday the floor was broken on Gold - $1179, and with that break, the door is now wide open to the giant $1000 threshold.

Bounces are to be expected, and it is notable that Gold broke a 3 year low of $1137 on Wednesday.

Renewed weakness seems highly likely, with sub'1100s likely within a week or two.

The only issue is whether Gold test the giant $1000 threshold this side of Christmas.. or in early 2015.

Wednesday 5 November 2014

Just another day for the metals

The broader down trend for the precious metals continues. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -2.1% and -4.6% respectively. The next (rather obvious) support for Gold is the giant $1000 threshold.. which is very viable before year end.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Little to add from the dozens of posts across the last few years.

Metals remain weak... and the rising USD is only adding to the underlying downward pressure.

*implications for the miners are obvious.. and we're seeing new lows on a very regular basis.