Friday 28 June 2013

Another terrible month for the precious metals

It was another fiercely bearish month for Gold and Silver, with monthly declines of 11.0% and 11.6% respectively. Monthly trends remain dire, and even if we have hit a short term low, much deeper lows seem likely later this year, and into 2014.

GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly


To see Gold -$148 on the month is again an incredible sight, and the same goes for the Silver decline of -$2.48

This was effectively the ninth month of a downside cycle that has seen extreme declines very few were expecting, not least those in the infamous 'gold bug community'.

Near term daily trend is suggestive of a small bounce, but both weekly/monthly trends remain very bearish.

Longer term 'floor' targets are GLD 90, and SLV 12/10

Wednesday 26 June 2013

More metalic destruction

Yet another day of carnage and price destruction in the precious metals market, with Gold and Silver seeing severe declines of 5.2% and 4.1% respectively. Near term trend looks dire, and mid-term outlook offers further drops to Gold in the $900s, and Silver in the $12/10 area.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


The trend continues....targets remain GLD 120,  SLV 17s

1-2 yr targets.. GLD 90s,   SLV, 12/10

Tuesday 25 June 2013

Metals remain weak

Whilst the main equity market continues to bounce, the precious metals simply can't manage to hold even minor gains. Gold and Silver both closed lower both by a little over 0.3%. Near term trend looks bearish, and that is only added to by the weekly/monthly cyclical downward trends.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Metals are finding it very hard to rally after last weeks latest smack down.

There is little to be said, other than with the weekly/monthly trends starkly pointing lower, any minor bounces are arguably mere 'shorting opportunities'.

Near term targets remain unchanged @ GLD 120 and SLV 17, but deeply lower levels look viable into 2014.

Friday 21 June 2013

Another lousy week for the metals

Once again it was another dire week for the precious metals market. With the FOMC/Bernanke spooking the market that QE infinity will actually end at 'some point', the metals saw further severe falls, with Gold and Silver falling 7.0% and 9.1% respectively.

GLD, weekly'2 rainbow

SLV, weekly'2, rainbow


The precious metals market continues to suffer from a number of negative influences. The USD is back on an upswing, equities are somewhat weak, but more importantly, T-bond yields are still rising, with the 10yr now breaking >2.50%

Gold and Silver remain on very severe multi-month down trends.

Mid-term targets remain GLD 120, SLV 17.

However, there is a very reasonable opportunity for GLD 90 and SLV 12/10 by early 2015.

Another metal massacre

With the wider US markets seeing broad declines, the precious metals were particularly affected. Gold and Silver saw severe falls of 5.3% and 7.9% respectively. Near term trend looks terrible, and much lower levels appear very likely across the next few weeks and months.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


A number of factors contributed to today's severe fall.

-The USD is back on the rise, with both the daily and weekly charts offering significant upside.
-The main US equity market is now on the slide, and that has often been a major drag on the metals market.
-Both Gold and Silver have taken out key support from the mid-May lows
-weekly/monthly trends for the metals remain strongly to the downside.

Put together, today was not unexpected,  and made for yet another fiercely bearish day for the metals.  There is simply no real support until GLD 120, and SLV 17s

Monthly charts are offering GLD 90, and SLV 12/10...but those deeply lower levels might take until 2014/15 to be hit.

Wednesday 19 June 2013

Continued QE not helping the metals

Despite the FOMC announcement that QE will continue at $85bn a month, the precious metals failed to be inspired, with Gold and Silver seeing declines of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. Gold has followed Silver in breaking the key support floor.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


It remains ironic that despite continued QE from the fed, the metals can't rally.

Next targets remain: GLD 120,   SLV 17

Friday 14 June 2013

Metals close the week slightly higher

Whilst equities saw some weakness to wrap up the week, the metals actually managed moderate gains, with Gold rising 0.5% and Silver 1.4%. Near term trend for the precious metals remains very mixed, with the bigger weekly/monthly trends continuing to head lower.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Gold and Silver indeed managed to close Friday will some gains, but they remain exceedingly close to the critical support floor.

It won't take much downside pressure to break the floor, and that will open up a further major drop.

Downside targets remain unchanged at GLD 120, and SLV 17

Monthly trend is dire, and bodes for a further 12-18 months of downside into late 2014/early 2015.

Tuesday 11 June 2013

Metals battling to hold the floor

With the equity and commodity markets on the slide, the precious metals were again under pressure. Despite closing above the earlier lows, Gold still lost $7, with Silver -24 cents. Near term trend is very mixed, with critical support very close to failing.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Primary weekly and monthly trends remain exceptionally weak. The current daily cycle is similarly now rolling lower again.

Both Gold and Silver could both easily snap the support floor, and that will open up a very swift fall to GLD 120, and SLV 17.

Friday 7 June 2013

Another bad end to the week

Whilst equities rallied for a second day, there was semi-carnage in the precious metals markets, with Gold and Silver falling 2.4% and 4.9% respectively. Near term trend looks dire, and both metals are in imminent danger of losing their support floor.

GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow


Suffice to say, a bad end to the week for Gold and Silver, both having declined across the week by 0.5% and 2.7% respectively.

The metals may bounce early next week, but its arguably a prime re-short opportunity, for those seeking the old floor to be taken out.

Downside targets remain unchanged... GLD 120, SLV 17

Wednesday 5 June 2013

Metals trending within a bear flag

Whilst equities remain weak, the metals are largely trending slightly to the upside. Price formation looks like a large bear flag, and now spans the last three weeks. It won't take much weakness to confirm the flag, and break to new lows for the year.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Gold and Silver both closed up a touch today, but broadly speaking, price action has been pretty muted for the last few weeks. A few percent up..a few percent down..its all generally holding near the lows of the year.

With just a little weakness, what are probably bear flags will be broken, and then we shall likely see new lows in the weeks and months ahead.

Mid-term downside targets remain unchanged, with GLD 120, and SLV 17. Silver remains especially weak.