Friday 30 September 2022

Month six down

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September changes of -$54.20 (3.1%) to $1672.00, and +$1.16 (6.5%) to $19.04 respectively. Gold is being pressured by the stronger dollar, whilst Silver is fairing surprising well, if still m/t bearish.

Gold, monthly1b


 Silver, monthly1b



Gold: a sixth consecutive net monthly decline, printing $1622.00 - the lowest since April 2020, if recovering to settle in the $1672s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1822, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding a decreasing amount of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There is increasing background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that will be very difficult until the dollar is sustainably cooling.


Silver: printed a new multi-year low of $17.40, but recovered to settle at $19.04. Momentum ticked subtly back upward. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.75, which silver settled below for a sixth month. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $22.00, but that looks difficult for the remainder of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.


Gold and the King of FIAT land...

The USD remains on track for next target of the DXY 120s. If that occurs, its difficult not to see Gold cool to next support of the $1370s, levels last seen in June 2019.


It currently only takes 11.59oz of Gold to purchase one Bitcoin.
Note the double top from the 34s.

The Gold to Silver ratio currently stands at 87.82, which remains historically on the very high side. However, considering the m/t bearish equity market, gold could be expected to outperform silver into early 2023.

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