Thursday 31 August 2017

August gains

It was a second consecutive month of gains for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net August gains of $48.80 (3.8%) to $1322.20, and $0.79 (4.7%) to $17.58. Notably, copper is leading the way, with gold following, and silver still trailing.

Gold monthly

Silver monthly


Its still a bit of a mixed picture for the precious metals. The monthly close in Gold above the $1300 threshold is rather bullish, yet that is still well below the summer 2016 highs. Silver is still struggling, and notably saw a flash-print of $14.34 just last month.

For bullish clarity, the infamous 'gold bugs' need Gold >$1400, and Silver >$22.

Supportive of that scenario is ongoing strength within copper.

Copper, monthly...

The August close of $3.10, is the highest monthly close since August 2014.. a full three years ago. Short term, copper is over-stretched. It would be no surprise to see the $3.00 threshold tested a few times across Sept/October.

The grander issue is that Gold, Silver, and Copper do broadly trade together on a multi-year basis, and with copper seeing a very bullish August, it leans to further upside in Gold and Silver into the autumn.

Of course, if the North Korea situation turns 'hot', gold (and to some extent, silver) would gain a powerful 'fear bid'.

Friday 25 August 2017

Gold still battling around $1300

It was a moderately bullish week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 0.5%    and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is leaning on the bullish side, but Gold is finding strong resistance at the $1300 threshold. Relative to gold, silver is notably still weak.

Gold weekly

Silver weekly


Suffice to add, the precious metals have been pushing upward since early July (along with the related mining stocks).

Gold is finding strong resistance around the $1300 threshold. Things would turn far more bullish with a daily/weekly close in the $1300s, and that would open the door to challenging the summer 2016 highs.

Considering the mid term weakness in the USD - settling the week in the DXY 92s, gold and silver are arguably under-performing.

An important indirect bullish signal is copper, which has attained the first weekly close >$3.00 since late 2014.

If copper can manage a monthly close >$3.00 (whether August.. or beyond), it would suggest gold and silver will eventually follow....

.... as the trio do broadly trade together across the years.

Friday 18 August 2017

The struggling metals

With less war talk between the US and the DPRK, the precious metals are starting to struggle. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, not least if the USD can push into the DXY 94s.

Gold weekly

Silver weekly


This morning (August 18th) saw Gold break the $1300 threshold for the first time since Nov'2016, but it couldn't hold it, as capital market confidence was regained into the afternoon.

... and for Gold/Silver, price action is often swayed by sporadic geo-political chatter.

Technically, price momentum is net positive (if only moderately) for both gold and silver. It can also be said the trend since July is on the positive side. Yet.. gold is clearly stuck around $1300, and Silver has a particularly bearish set of lower highs from April.

For now.... 'Mr Inflation' is yet to be seen, and that is naturally holding back most of the related mining stocks. 

It remains notable that one indirect bullish signal is copper, which settled higher for a sixth consecutive week, and is very close to challenging the key $3.00 threshold.

Copper, weekly

Any weekly/monthly close for copper >$3.00, would bode bullish for gold/silver, and the related miners.

Friday 11 August 2017

Bullish engulfing candles

The precious metals started the week on a weak note, but then caught a rather powerful 'fear bid', with Gold and Silver settling net higher by $29.40 (2.3%) to $1294.00, and $0.82 (5.0%) to $17.07 respectively. The bullish engulfing candles lean to further upside within the near term.

Gold weekly

Silver weekly


First, its notable that Gold is still considerably stronger than Silver.

It has been an interesting thing to see last week's declines fully negated, with both Gold and Silver swinging powerfully upward.

A rather bullish indirect signal is via the industrial metal of copper, which is just below the very important $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close (whether August.. or beyond) >$3.00 for copper, would bode bullish for Gold and Silver. The trio generally trade together on a multi-year basis, and if copper continues to rise, its almost impossible not to see Gold and Silver follow.

*As ever, there are implications for the related mining stocks. The mining bulls really need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

A hyper bullish mining outlook... requires Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.

Friday 4 August 2017

Metals cooling again

The short term bullish run for the precious metals has come to an end, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -$10.70 (0.8%) to $1264.60, and -$0.44 (2.6%) to $16.25 respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with Silver leading the way lower. 

Gold, weekly

Silver, weekly


Suffice to add, with the USD ending the week with a bounce (partly inspired by the jobs data), the precious metals are under some significant downward pressure.

Silver is particularly bearish, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gold remains within the mid term bullish trend from Dec'2015.

The one indirect bullish aspect... copper, which recently broke above key resistance of $2.70, and is currently close to the key $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close >$3.00 would eventually suggest Gold and Silver will eventually catch up.