A fourth year of weakness

The precious metals - along with most other commodities, saw a fourth consecutive year of broad weakness. Gold and Silver saw net yearly declines of -$123.00 (-10.4%) @ $1060.20 (intra low $1045.40), and -$1.77 (-11.3%) @ $13.83 (intra low $13.62). Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.


Gold, monthly2, fib levels

Silver, monthly2, fib levels

Summary

Suffice to add, yet another year of pain for the gold/silver bugs.

It remains the case that the miners have kept on digging, even though prices continue to fall.

Lets get this quite clear.. there is yet to be capitulation within the precious metals mining industry. Until a significant number of mines are closed... prices are going to remain broadly weak
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Implications for mining stocks

If the precious metals do indeed remain weak for another 3-6 months (which seems a very realistic minimum), then the related mining stocks will be dragged lower... regardless of however strong the main equity market might be.

If Gold falls to $1000, then most mining stocks will lose another 10/15%.

If Gold declines to $900/875, then most mining stocks would implode by 25/30%.
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*I have eyes on over a dozen individual mining companies... but for now, there seems absolutely zero reason to get involved on the long side.

yours... still patient after four years.

Net weekly gains

It was a bit of a choppy week for the precious metals, but by the Thursday early close, Gold and Silver settled with net weekly gains of 0.9% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a moderate bounce into early 2016, but broadly... new multi-year lows look inevitable.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

We're still seeing sporadic little bounces in the metals, but such gains do nothing to the broader collapse wave that extends back a full four years.

The recent low for Gold of $1045 makes no more sense as a key low than $1232, 1130, or 1051 did.

Mr Market will surely want to wash the $1000 traders out. Further weakness to the 900/875 zone looks highly probable in first half of 2016.

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If the precious metals do break new lows, the related mining stocks will be seriously impacted, regardless of however strong the main market might be.

Mixed week for the metals

It was a rather mixed week for the precious metals, with net weekly changes for Gold and Silver of -1.1% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor bounce, but the mid term outlook remains broadly bearish... at least to Gold $1000, if not the 900/875 zone by summer 2016.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Commodities - especially the precious metals, remain within the broad downward trend from 2011.

For now... there seems little reason to be long the metals (paper or physical).. or the related mining stocks.

Renewed weakness

With the broader capital markets increasingly twitchy about the looming FOMC, the precious metals were also impacted. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.9% and -4.1% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed... with moderate threat of a bounce, but still within a broad downward trend.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... the more industrial Silver was particularly impacted, as deflationary pressure continue to seriously depress commodities.

The declines were arguably a lot weaker than on first look, as the USD saw a sig' net weekly decline of around -1.0%.
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*with broadly weak metal prices, the related mining stocks will similarly remain weak into 2016.. regardless of however strong the main market might be.

Bouncing from new multi-year lows

The precious metals ended the week on a significantly positive note, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively. It is highly notable that Gold and Silver broke new multi-year lows of $1045 and $13.81 respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to note... the metals are merely seeing a short term bounce, having broken new multi-year lows.

I would give a probability of ZERO that the metals have seen a key floor.

Further declines look a given... at least to Gold $1000, and almost equally likely... 900/875.

*if correct, it will bode bearish for the related mining stocks.. regardless of however strong the main market is.

Fierce net monthly declines

It was a fiercely bearish month for the precious metals, with net monthly declines for Gold and Silver of -$76.40 (6.7%) @ $1065.30, and -$1.45 (9.3%) @ $14.09. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.


Gold, monthly2

Silver, monthly2

Summary

With new multi-year lows of $1051.60 and $13.86, there is absolutely ZERO reason why any of the gold bugs could have any reason to yet call a floor.

Indeed, it is notable that these lows were achieved with the USD settling November only at DXY 100. If the 105s.. or eventually 120s... what might that equate to?
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Holding to original targets...

Gold $1000, then 900/875
Silver $12/10

*around the psy' level of $1000, price action in Gold is likely to get a little wild, as more capitulate, but with the $1K buyers set to appear.
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If correct, the related mining stocks will be seriously impacted, regardless of however strong the main equity market might be into spring 2016.

Six weeks of declines

It was yet another week lower for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -1.7% and -0.3% respectively. Gold broke a new multi-year low of $1051, whilst Silver is now trading around $14.00. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to note.. as expected, the precious metals continue to decline.

With the USD back around the DXY 100 threshold, there is a great deal of underlying downward pressure on the metals.

If the US Federal Reserve finally do raise int' rates at the Dec'16th FOMC, the metals will likely see rather fierce declines into year end.. and early 2016.
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If correct... the related mining stocks will be dragged to new multi-year lows... regardless of however strong the main market might be.

A fifth week lower

It was yet another bearish week for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.4% and -0.7% respectively. Gold broke a new multi-year low of $1062, and remains on track to test the giant psy' level of $1000.. where price action is likely to get a little wild.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

The broader downward trend continues.

Once Gold is around the $1000 threshold, price action is likely to get somewhat wild, as more gold bugs capitulate... but at the same time... a significant number of buyers will pile in.

Broadly... the $900/875 zone looks viable in late spring/summer 2016.

*If correct, the related mining stocks will remain broadly weak for another 6-9 months.

A fourth week lower

It was another negative week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -0.5% and -3.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish, with Gold set to break the key low of $1072... opening the door to the giant $1000 threshold.


GLD ,weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Four weeks down... as King Dollar remains ruler in FIAT land. A break above the DXY 100 threshold will only increase the underlying downward pressure on all $ denominated asset classes... particularly Oil, and the precious metals.
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If correct, it bodes badly for the related mining stocks into 2016.

Powerful net weekly declines

With the USD jumping higher as the probability of an interest rate hike at the Dec' FOMC reaches almost 100%, the precious metals are imploding. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -4.7% and -4.9% respectively. Outlook into end year is now extremely bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The Oct' net monthly gains are now largely negated, with Gold/Silver set to break new multi-year lows before year end.

By definition, a stronger USD will put downward pressure on most commodities, and particularly so, the precious metals.

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A monthly close for the USD >DXY 100, will offer target upside to the 120s in 2016.. and that would likely result in Gold falling at least to the next key fib' retrace in the $900/875 zone. That would likely equate to Silver 12/10.

If correct, the related mining stocks will be similarly impacted.

October gains for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw significant net monthly gains of $26.90 (2.4%) @ $1141.40, and $1.08 (7.5%) @ $15.57 respectively. Despite the gains, the broader trend remain bearish, not least as the USD remains on track to eventually break above the key DXY 100 threshold.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

I remain holding to the original outlook... with Gold $1000/900.. but it is clearly taking longer than expected.. as the USD has trundled sideways since the spring.
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A continued bearish outlook for Gold and Silver would only be dropped on any sustained price action >$1300 and $20 respectively. Frankly... such upside looks unlikely.. rather than weakness into year end.

Price structure on the weekly charts (not shown) is a large bear flag... and hence.. I remain highly inclined to the broader bearish scenario.

Net weekly declines

With the USD seeing rather strong net weekly gains of around 2.7% in the DXY 97s, the precious metals were pressured lower. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.9% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, and will be highly dependent on the next move in the USD.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Best guess?

I am seeking a bullish breakout in the USD, back above the giant DXY 100 threshold.. and onward to the 120s.

If correct, such dollar strength will put significant downward pressure on the metals (and most other commodities) into next year.

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Further, if the metals do resume lower.. it will drag the related mining stocks lower, regardless of however strong the broader equity market might be.

A second strong week

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw significant net weekly gains for a second week, higher by 1.5% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, not least as the USD appears headed to the DXY 90 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

In the grander scheme of things.. the last few weeks are somewhat interesting.. but we remain relatively close to recent multi-year lows.

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For me, key bullish breakout thresholds (via monthly chart) are...

GLD: 125
SLV: 20

If we see a few weekly closes above those levels, then the broader bearish outlook will be dropped.

Significant gains for the metals

With the USD cooling into the DXY 94s, the precious metals of Gold and Silver saw further upward pressure, with net weekly gains of 1.7% and 3.8% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, but price action remains comfortably within the broader bearish trend from 2011.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

No doubt, the cooling USD has helped to pressure most equities and commodities to the upside this past week. USD is threatening further cooling to the DXY 90 threshold, and that might equate to Gold seeing upside of a further 3-5% to around the $1200 threshold.
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For the moment, I can't take any precious metal gains seriously.. at least until Gold is trading >$1350

Mixed week for the metals

The metals ended the week on a very positive note, with Gold and Silver settling higher by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. Across the week, Gold and Silver settled -0.8% and +0.9% respectively. The mid term outlook is now borderline.. as the USD is starting to threaten renewed cooling to the DXY 90 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Without question, commodities remain exceptionally.. and broadly weak... and that certainly include the precious metals.

With US jobs data coming in much weaker than expected, we saw the USD sliding (at least initially) by almost a full percent to the DXY 95s. There appears threat of DXY 90.. before the next grand push back above the giant 100 threshold.. and onward to the 120s.

So.. short term bullish... but eventually... the metals will again face the old problem of a stronger USD.
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*I remain having ZERO interest in being long the precious metals.. or their related mining stocks, until there is a clear floor in commodities.

Net monthly declines for the metals

It was a somewhat bearish month for the precious metals. Gold settled net lower by -$18.70 (1.6%) @ $1115.20, whilst Silver fell -$0.08 (0.6%) @ $14.52. Broader trend remains bearish, with Gold still on track to test the giant $1000 threshold.. along with Silver 12/10.


Gold, monthly2

Silver, monthly2

Summary

Little to add.

Broader trend remains weak.. and Gold still looks set for a test of the giant $1000 threshold.. not least if USD can break above the DXY 100 threshold.

If correct, the related mining stocks will remain weak into 2016.. regardless of whatever upside is seen in the main equity market.

Mixed week for the metals

It was a moderately mixed week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.6% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bearish, with Gold still on track for the giant $1000 threshold, along with Silver 12/10.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Most commodities - metals included, remain very weak, pressured by King Dollar which looks likely to re-take the DXY 100 threshold in late 2015/early 2016.

Significant net weekly gains

The week to week swings continue for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw rather strong net weekly gains of 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, but broadly, price action remains weak, and Gold still looks on track for the giant $1000 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV ,weekly

Summary

Little to add.

A strong week for the metals... but then the USD was weak, and there was some distinct upset in the capital markets at the lack of an interest rate hike by the US Fed.

Broadly.. nothing has changed.. the metals.. and their related mining stocks, look set for further downside.

Another week lower for Gold

With US capital markets calming somewhat, the precious metals saw some renewed underlying weakness. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of -1.2% and +0.2% respectively. Mid term outlooks remains bearish, with Gold still on track for the giant $1000 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Metals remain broadly weak.. along with most commodities.

USD looks set to break above the big DXY 100 threshold in the coming months, and that will increase the downward pressure on most $ denominated asset classes.

*if the metals outlook is correct, it has very bearish implications for the related mining stocks, no matter how strong the main equity market might be.

Gold back on the slide

Despite further turmoil in the broader capital markets, the precious metals were still struggling, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of -1.0% and u/c respectively. Broader outlook remains bearish, with Gold set to test the giant $1000 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Some could argue the metals are forming a floor, but then, the same was said when Gold @ $1130... and we now have a lower low of $1071.

The giant $1000 threshold remains a rather obvious target, not least as the USD resumes higher.. above DXY 100.

Mixed month for the metals

It was a mixed month for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net August changes of +$39.15 (3.6%) @ $1134.15, and -$0.11 (0.8%) @ $14.65. Near term outlook remains broadly bearish, with Gold still on track for the giant $1000 threshold, along with Silver to 12/10.


Gold, monthly2, with fibs

Silver, monthly2, with fibs

Summary

Suffice to add, despite some serious turmoil in late August, Gold never really attained a particularly significant 'fear bid', and Silver even managed a fractional net monthly decline.

Broadly, the bearish trend from 2011 remains intact, and Gold still looks headed for $1000, if not the 900/875 zone.

Net weekly declines

Despite some rather severe turmoil in world equity markets, the precious metals broke new multi-week highs, but were unable to hold the gains. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.2% and -4.7% respectively. Mid term outlook remains broadly bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV,weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Many recognise the importance that despite some serious market upset, Gold - and its more unstable sister metal Silver, were unable to stay net positive for the week.

With the USD set for another multi-month climb.. back above the DXY 100 threshold (and onward to the 120s), the metals look highly vulnerable into 2016.

Mixed week for the metals

With commodities remaining under pressure - despite a weak USD, it was a mixed week for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of 3.9% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside, but the broader trend remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

I have little interest in trading the precious metals.. or related miners... but am certainly still keeping an eye on them.

Net weekly gains

After a few weeks of minor chop, the precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.1% and 3.1% respectively. However, one significantly positive week does nothing to negate the broader bearish trend, and new multi-year lows look due in the near term.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Regardless of any further moderate upside - which the daily charts argue against anyway, the broader trend remains weak.

Targets remain.. Gold $1000.. if not $900/875.. as USD looks set for DXY 120s in 2016.
Silver 12/10.

A second week of chop

Gold and Silver saw a second week of minor price chop, with net weekly changes of -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains broadly bearish into the early autumn. Gold still looks set to decline to the giant psy' level of $1000, along with Silver 12/10.


GLD ,weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Price structure is likely the early phase of yet another bear flag... with a snap lower due within the next few weeks.