Thursday 28 March 2024

Gold/Silver powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw very powerful net March gains of +$183.70 (8.9%) to $2238.40, and +$2.03 (8.9%) to $24.92 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 Silver, monthly1b


Gold: printing a new historic high of $2246.80. A fifth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked back upward, and is on the moderately positive side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2025, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

I see the door wide open to next resistance of the 2400/2500 zone, which is an area a fair few others are also seeking. I could understand some who are wondering if 3K is realistic this year.

Silver: printing a high of $25.98, if cooling back to settle at $24.92. Momentum ticked back upward, turning fractionally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.89, which silver settled above. 

The s/t bulls should continue to seek a break AND hold above $26.00. The problem will be if the main market sees any kind of cooling/retrace. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb.

More broadly, silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00. That doesn't look viable any earlier than May. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00. 



The gold to silver ratio stands at 89.84, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis.  

*It is notable that Gold and Silver both saw net March gains of 8.9%. 

As at March 29th, the gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 31.11, the highest since Nov'2021, as crypto has massively outperformed gold since the equity market floored in Oct'2022.

It could be argued, equity bears should be seeking the ratio to peak in the 34s, as one indirect sign the market is at/near a m/t top. As ever though, ratios are to be treated with a high degree of caution. The gold/bitcoin ratio could continue to increase, but it sure doesn't have to mean gold isn't also climbing.


Gold's net March gain of 8.9% is somewhat more impressive, considering the USD was net higher... if only by around +0.5%. It is indeed possible for Gold (and Silver) to climb, with the strengthening dollar.  Were the USD to weaken, along with lower bond yields, Gold/Silver could be expected to accelerate upwards.

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