Friday 28 July 2017

A third week of gains

The precious metals of Gold and Silver climbed for a third consecutive week, settling higher by +$13.50 (1.1%) to $1268.40, and +$0.24 (1.4%) to $16.69 respectively. Short term momentum is bullish, but any degree of bounce in the USD, will put significant renewed downward pressure on the metals.

Gold weekly

Silver weekly


First, a special note on the USD, weekly cycle...

The settling candle saw a minor spike low precisely on core support of the DXY 93.00 threshold. If the USD has seen a short term floor, the pressure will on the metals next week, and across much of August.

Unlike some out there, not least the infamous 'dollar doomers', I see the USD eventually pushing to the DXY 120s. That of course would be severely deflationary to the metals. In any case, near term bullish USD, so long as the 93s hold!

As for the metals, we've seen four distinct multi-week rallies this year, most of which exhausted themselves within 3-5 weeks. Frankly, the metals look very vulnerable next week/early August, not least if the USD can claw back into the DXY 94s.

To be confident, the gold bugs need to see Gold and Silver break above their April/June highs.

For broader mid/long term confidence, the summer 2016 highs need to be cleared. To be decisive, Gold $1400s.. and Silver $22s.

As ever... feel free to leave a comment.

Extra charts on the metals, and related miner stocks @

Friday 21 July 2017

Climbing for a second week

The precious of Gold and Silver climbed for a second week, with net weekly gains of $27.40 (2.3%) to $1254.90, and $0.52 (3.3%) to $16.46 respectively. Despite the gains, near term outlook is shaky, as any rebound in the USD from the DXY 93s will put renewed downward pressure on anything within commodity land.

Gold, weekly

Silver, weekly


Suffice to add, a second consecutive significant net weekly gain for Gold and Silver. However, Silver remains a particular problem, having been sustainably trading under old support since early June.

Clearly, a large part of the recent bounce in the metals is due to the US dollar's continued weakness from the DXY 95s to the 93s. 

Right now, its a struggle to be bullish Gold or Silver. Arguably, the cautious will wait to chase until the April and/or June highs are traded back above.

As ever, price action in Gold and Silver will have massive implications for the related mining stocks. Even if the main equity market continues upward to the sp'2600/700s by year end, it will count for nothing if Gold or Silver are at current levels... or worse.

*there is an FOMC next Wednesday. Even though no policy change is expected, such 'fed' days will often see big moves in the precious metals. If the USD does see a bounce next week - as seems probable, Gold and Silver will be back on the slide.

Friday 14 July 2017

A weekly bounce

After five consecutive net weekly declines, Gold and Silver finally caught a bounce, settling with net weekly gains of $17.80 (1.5%) and $0.51 (3.3%) respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further upward, but broadly, the precious metals look very vulnerable, not least as the USD will be prone for a bounce before end month.

Gold, weekly

Silver, weekly


Cyclically, despite the weekly gains, both gold and silver are seeing underlying weekly price momentum continue to tick lower.

Silver remains far weaker than gold, having been sustainably under old support since early June. 

Its very difficult to see how Gold and Silver can be expected to see any sig' strength until at least after August, which is seasonally a somewhat weak period.

Further, if the USD bounces by just 1 or 2% into end July/early August, the metals will be under renewed 'natural' currency pressure.

Outlook: bearish, with Gold being lead lower by Silver.

Friday 7 July 2017

A very bearish week

It was a very bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -$32.60 (2.6%) and -$1.20 (7.2%) respectively. Notably, Silver has broken well below the Dec'2016 low, and (in theory) it bodes badly for Gold... and the related mining stocks.

Gold, weekly

Silver, weekly


A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for Gold and Silver, the most bearish run since late 2015, just before Gold/Silver floored.

The Silver weekly candle even highlights what was an effective flash-crash on Friday. Unquestionably, a large part of it was technical, as the Dec'2016 was broken, that will have initiated a great number of mid/long term trading stops.

A special highlight of the bigger monthly cycles...

Gold, monthly1c

Silver, monthly1c

Suffice to add, Silver is leading the way lower... gold can be expected to follow.

As ever, extra charts on the metals... and other things @