Net yearly gains for the metals

There was some moderate weakness into the yearly close, with Gold and Silver seeing Friday falls of -0.6% and -1.4% respectively. For the month, Gold and Silver saw net declines of -1.9% and -3.5% respectively. For 2016, Gold saw a net gain of $91.20 (8.6%) to $1151.70, and Silver $2.17 (15.7%) to $15.99.


Gold, monthly2

Silver, monthly2

Summary

Dec'2015 saw Gold and Silver put in very important floors of $1060.50 and $13.82 respectively. From those lows, Gold and Silver rallied strongly into summer 2016, with peaks of $1377.50 and $21.23 respectively.

With the capital markets able to quickly shrug off BREXIT, market confidence climbed for the remainder of the year - not least via a Trump victory.The inherent fear bid that is a significant part of the precious metals was further eroded, which certainly contributed to cooling prices into year end.

The mid term trend for Gold and Silver is clearly still bearish. That only provisionally changes, if Gold $1300s. For full bullish clarity, I need to see the $1400s.

Note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the giant monthly cycles... both Gold and Silver are set to see price momentum turn outright bearish in Jan/Feb' 2017. By definition, further sig' downside is ahead in the short/mid term.

Arguably, the best outcome for the gold bugs would be if the metals managed to just churn sideways for 2-3 months, building a floor - much like late 2015. For now.. there is simply NO sign of such a floor.

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As ever, the direction of gold and silver prices will have a massive impact on the related mining stocks. As noted elsewhere for the ETF of GDX, short/mid term outlook remains bearish.

Metals still broadly weak

The mid term downward trend continued for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -0.2% and -2.4% respectively. Gold notably fell for a seventh consecutive week, the worse run since May 2004. For now, there is simply zero sign of a mid term floor.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*GLD was first listed in Nov'2004. It has NEVER seen seven consecutive net weekly declines.

Keep in mind, spot gold last saw 7 weeks of declines in May 2004.
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Suffice to add... short/mid term... we're clearly versold... but there is absolutely ZERO sign of a floor/turn.

The core issue remains... will the Dec'2015 lows hold in first half of 2017?

If Gold breaks <$1045, it'd offer a fast run to the $1k threshold, with a broader downside target of 900/875, and that'd likely equate to Silver in the $12/10s.
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As ever, there are major implications for the related mining stocks. For now.. with no sign of a mid term floor in Gold/Silver, the long-miner trade seems pointless.

A sixth week lower for Gold

With US capital markets remaining broadly confident, the precious metals of Gold and Silver continued to broadly cool, with net weekly declines of -2.2% and -4.4% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bearish, as there is zero sign that a floor is near. The Dec'2015 lows are well within range by spring 2017.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, with the USD breaking into the DXY 103s, the precious metals remained under broad downward pressure.

Further, as the US capital markets have successfully coped with a rate hike, Gold/Silver are seeing more of their fear bid diminish.

Without question, there is no sign of a mid term floor, and its now merely a case of whether the Dec'2015 lows are broken next year.
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*as ever, the related mining stocks will be largely dependent on price action in gold/silver. The mining stocks are currently within a mid term downward trend that began in August.

A fifth week lower for Gold

As the US capital markets continue to grow in confidence, the traditional 'safety play' of Gold is seeing reduced interest. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of -1.5% and +0.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains outright bearish. The only issue is whether Gold/Silver eventually break the Dec'2015 lows.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, this is the worse run in Gold since Nov'2015.. just before Gold floored at $1045.40.

Silver is performing better, and is trading a little closer to Copper, which saw a decisive bullish breakout in November.

The ultimate issue remains... will Gold/Silver break the Dec'2015 lows? For now... its very difficult to say. The one indirect signal that suggest gold/silver will put in a higher low, is copper.

A severely bearish November

With US capital markets coming to decide a Trump presidency might actually be a good thing, it was a severely bearish November for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -$99.20 (7.8%) @ $1173.90, and -$1.31 (7.4%) @ $16.48 respectively. Near/mid outlook is bearish, the only issue is whether the Dec'2015 lows are broken under in early 2017.


Gold, monthly2

Silver, monthly2

Summary

A very bearish month indeed...

key issues...

-Higher USD (capital inflows, amid higher rate expectations)... naturally pressuring gold/silver
-Increased market confidence, as the uncertainty of the election has passed, resulting in Gold/Silver losing more of their inherent fear bid.
-Underlying econ-data points in November has been (arguably) rather good.

Near term outlook offers further significant weakness in December. The bigger issue is whether the Dec'2015 lows will be taken out. Its a very difficult issue to guess, but what can be said is that there is ZERO sign of a floor/turn, from the down wave that began in July.
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Implications for the miners

As ever, weakening metals have very bearish implications for the related mining stocks, even as the broader equity market is powering to new historic highs.

A third week lower

It was a third consecutive bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -2.2% and 0.6% respectively. Gold has been particularly hit, as its inherent safety/fear bid continues to fade, as the broader capital markets are increasingly pleased.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... November is set for a very bearish close. The monthly candle will be of the bearish engulfing type, and that suggests Dec' will see new cycle lows.

The only issue now is whether the Dec'2015 lows will hold.

The one indirect aspect that suggests Gold and Sillver will hold the Dec'2015 lows..... Copper.

A second week lower

It was a second consecutive bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -1.6% and -4.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness to price gap zones. With the USD super strong, mid term outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

With the USD net higher this week by around 2.0% in the DXY 101s, it was not exactly a surprise to see Gold and Silver broadly lower.

Things turn VERY bearish if...  GLD <112 and SLV <$14

If either or both are seen, it would suggest a FULL retrace to the Dec'2015 lows. Further, it would re-open the original target of Gold $900/875, with Silver around $10.

... and if that happened, it'd bode extremely bearish for the related mining stocks, even if the main equity market continued into the sp'2300s and beyond.

Post election collapse

With the election out of the way, equities soared, volatility rapidly cooled, and perhaps most notably.. the precious metals collapsed. Gold and Silver saw severe net weekly declines of -5.9% and -5.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce, but if core support is not held... the Dec'2015 lows will be challenged in 2017.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Last week saw gold and silver negate price structure of a very clear flag.

With the election now passed, the metals have seen a complete reversal.

The USD is not helping, having seen the DXY 99s this week
There was news of a massive 'big money' seller of Gold futures, totalling around $10bn.

The remaining inherent 'fear bid/safety aspect of Gold/Silver has now been immensely reduced.
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Best guess? The outlook remains mid term bearish. If GLD <112 and SLV <14.50.. the Dec' 2015 lows will be taken out next year.

If that occurs, the related mining stocks will be utterly obliterated.

Against that... price structure is offering a multi-month bull flag... but that would only be confirmed if the miners rally around 20% from current levels.. >GDX $26.

Metals rising on market fear

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a third consecutive week of gains, settling net higher by 2.4% and 3.6% respectively. Recent cooling in the USD from the DXY 99s to the 97s is no doubt a primary reason for the continued recovery.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Perhaps the most notable aspect this week, was that with some significant gains, price structure of a bear flag has been completely negated

So.. where now?

Gold and silver rallied from multi-year lows in Dec'2015 to July/August 2016, and have seen around three months of broad cooling.

Not only is there some underlying upward cyclical pressure, but we're clearly seeing a slight fear bid for Gold/Silver.. as the US election nears.

Seen on the giant monthly charts, some could justifiably argue that the past few months are merely a large bull flag - as also reflected in many of the related mining stocks.

To have clarity of that, Gold/Silver.. and the miners, need to break above the Sept' highs. 

Big bear flag

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a second consecutive week of gains, settling higher by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. However, price structure remains a very clear bear flag, and renewed downside is highly probable.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... a second week of gains, but price structure for both metals sure are very clear bear flags. Price action could remain a little choppy - leaning higher, for another week or two, but broadly, the precious metals look extremely vulnerable to another big wave lower.

The USD is a clear downward pressure, and any move above the giant psy' level of DXY 100 would be massively bearish.

Further, higher rates would be arguably bearish for the metals. The Fed still look on course to raise rates at the FOMC of Dec'14th.


Implications for miners

If the bear flags for Gold and Silver do play out, then the related mining stocks are going to get trashed, at least on the order of 15/20%.

On balance... that does seem probable.

Still weakly rebounding

The precious metals are still vainly trying to rebound, after the severe drop from a fortnight ago. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 1.2% and 0.5% respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

First, I will note that considering the continuing strength in the USD, the metals had an even better than on first look.

On balance, further weakness seems probable, with rather clear downside gap zones for both metals.

A very weak bounce

After last week's very powerful downside, a bounce was due, and there was indeed one this past week. Yet, it was very weak indeed, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Mid term outlook is bearish as there is a crystal clear break of rising trend that began at the Dec'2015 lows.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Frankly, the bounce is barely noticeable, and it does bode very bearish for Gold/Silver into month end.

Next support for GLD is around 116/113, with an equally tempting gap zone around 113/112. Any price action <112 would bode for a return to the Dec'2015 low.

SLV support is not until $15, which is another 10% lower.

It is notable that the MACD (blue bar histogram) is at/below the Dec' 2015 lows. For Gold, its the most bearish technical situation since summer 2013.
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A note on the USD, weekly

The USD saw a second consecutive significant net weekly gain. The strengthening dollar is clearly a major downward pressure on the precious metals. Any move above the giant DXY 100 threshold would cause absolute carnage for the metals - and related miners.

Powerful net weekly declines

It was the most bearish week for the precious metals since Sept'2013, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -4.7% and -8.8% respectively. Near term threatens a bounce, but mid term outlook is now bearish, as rising trend from the Dec'2015 lows has been decisively broken.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Gold and Silver have both now decisively broken the rising trend from the Dec'2015 lows. It can be counted as 'week 1' down.. from the break.

Next week could easily see a net weekly gain, but it will do nothing to negate what is a massively significant break.

In theory... GLD will cool to at least the 115s.. which would equate to Gold losing another $30/40. SLV looks vulnerable to the $15s... equating to Silver $16s.
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*price structure in a number of mining stocks is offering a VERY big bull flag. In theory, that would suggest this past week's declines in Gold/Silver won't lead to breaking the Dec'2015 lows.

On balance.. its a VERY borderline situation.

As ever, the USD will be a key variable... any move above DXY 100 would bode for Gold <$1000, with Silver $10.

Metals smashed lower

It was a brutally bearish day for the precious metals, as talk of an early end to ECB QE, gave the excuse for a weaker Euro and stronger USD. Gold and Silver saw severe net daily declines of -3.3% and -5.0% respectively. Gold has seen a particularly decisive break of rising trend that stretches back to the Dec'2015 low. Outlook... bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Seen on the bigger weekly charts, its somewhat of a more mixed picture. Gold has decisively broken rising trend, whilst Silver still has a little further downside buffer.
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The situation is that the mining stocks were an early warning that the metals were in trouble. The ETF of GDX saw a giant bearish engulfing candle in August.

Now we have a very clear break of rising trend in Gold... with the miners continuing to spiral lower.

Gold is only just beginning a down wave that (in theory) should last at least two full months... taking us into early Dec'... just before the Fed appear set to raise rates.

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An old target of Gold $900/875 is not on the menu yet, but if GLD can't hold $115.. aka... Gold $1220 (or so)... it'll bode for a brutal 2017 for the gold bugs.

Net monthly gains

After significant weakness in August, September saw the precious metals rebound. Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $5.70 (0.4%) to $1317.10, and $0.51 (2.7%) to $19.21. The mid term upward trend from the Dec' 2015 low remains intact.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

*Gold ended the week on a moderately bearish note, certainly relative to Silver.
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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower, but for now... the important aspect is that the rising trend from the Dec'2015 low is still intact.

Gold is far more vulnerable to breaking rising trend than Silver.

As ever, the USD will be a key variable in helping determine the mid/long term direction of the metals.

My current outlook for the USD is offering downside to the DXY 92/91s before end year. If that is correct, it would bode bullish for the metals, along with most other commodities, and indeed, the broader equity market.
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Gold only turns decisively bearish on a move under $1200. For Silver, that is arguably <$16.

Gold holds support as rates held

With the Fed again refraining from raising rates, the precious metals rebounded, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 2.0% and % respectively. Gold has importantly held rising trend, and the mid term outlook remains bullish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add...

Rates held. USD cools a little. Metals naturally inclined to rebound.

Cyclically, both Gold and Silver are on the low end of the cycle, and have viable upside into early 2017.

Continuing to lean weak

The precious metals of Gold and Silver continue to lean weak, with net weekly declines of -1.3% and -1.4% respectively. Gold is now on the borderline of breaking rising trend, that stretches back to the Dec'2015 low. If broken, it would bode very bearish in the short term, and Silver would follow.


GLD,weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... short term bearish.

Mid term is now borderline.. as Gold is looking highly vulnerable to breaking rising trend - which would follow the miners who broke trend in mid August.
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If the Fed do not raise rates at the Sept'21st FOMC - which seems probable, it would be bearish USD, and that would be an upward pressure on the metals.

So... Gold just needs to hold steady from Mon-Wed' afternoon... before there is high threat of renewed upside.

Metals leaning weak

It was a somewhat mixed and choppy week for Gold and Silver, with net weekly changes of +0.2% and -1.9% respectively. Near term outlook is leaning on the weaker side - as particularly suggested via price momentum in Silver. For now, the mid-term bullish trends remain intact.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... Silver is leading the way lower.

Short term bearish... but for now... mid-term remains bullish. Price structure is arguably a giant multi-month bull flag, but it will take new highs to give clarity to that scenario.

Metals back on the rise

After a couple of weeks of weakness, the precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a positive week, with net weekly gains of 0.4% and 3.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, within a broader bullish trend that extends back to the Dec'2015 lows.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... short term bullish... after a few months of chop (leaning weak).

Mid term bullish trend remains intact.

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Things only turn bearish if...

GLD <124.. aka.. spot Gold $1290
SLV <17... aka Silver $18... as of late October - relating to rising trend from the Dec'2015 low.

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As ever... implications for the related mining stocks should be clear.. regardless of which ever direction the broader equity market might take.

Tough month for Gold and Silver

After significant gains across June and July, August saw some very significant cooling for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -$46.50 (3.4%) @ $1311.40, and -$1.64 (8.1%) @ $18.71 respectively. Mid term rising trend - from the Dec'2015 lows is now extremely vulnerable.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

August is often a cyclical low for the precious metals.. so its possible we've just seen some natural cooling ahead of a broader ramp into year end and all the way into spring 2017.

The USD is clearly putting some downward pressure on the metals. Whenever the USD is on the rise - mostly due to increased rate hike expectations, the metals almost always get knocked lower.


So, whats my best guess?

Considering the strength in the USD, the metals do look very vulnerable to reversing more of the gains that have been built since the Dec'2015 lows.

Any push into the $1400s for Gold would really turn the outlook powerfully bullish... as the $1500s would then become a given.

Things only turn bearish if Gold trades <$1200.. which is another 8% lower.
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To be clear, I'm leaning bearish, but I have zero interest in trying to short Gold - or the related mining stocks, as long term.. I'm actually hyper-bullish metals/miners. For me.. its the bigger picture that matters.

Metals continuing to slip

The precious metals continued to increasingly lean on the weaker side, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -1.5% and -3.4% respectively. The broader trend from the Dec'2015 lows remains intact, and a rather important test of rising support appears due.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... short term price pressure is increasingly weak, but the mid term trend remains to the upside.

It is notable both Gold and Silver have seen a bearish MACD cross on the weekly cycle... the first time since the major bullish break in Jan/Feb.

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Implications for the related mining stocks

If the metals do break rising support into the autumn, it will bode badly for related mining stocks.

A mixed week for the metals

Despite the USD continuing to cool, it was a somewhat mixed week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.4% and -2.0% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be highly dependent on the USD... which itself will be tied to when the Fed next raise rates.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... price action remains pretty choppy.

Gold is still maintaining some degree of fear bid, as many are touting far higher levels before year end. Even the mainstream seem resigned to $1500s 'eventually'.

Silver - being the more industrial metal, is clearly leaning far weaker than Gold.. which is to be expected.

Broadly, the metals are holding strong... and things only get bearish if Gold loses the $1200 threshold, which is over 10% lower.

Fractional net weekly changes

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a week of relatively moderate swings, with net weekly changes of -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is leaning bearish, but mid term bullish trend - from the Dec'2015 lows, remains intact.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The last six weeks have seen increasingly choppy price action. It could be argued by some of the hyper-bullish gold bugs, that price structure is some kind of big bull flag.

However, on balance, I'm leaning for a test of rising trend in the weeks ahead.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower, and at the current rate, there will be serious threat of significant downside in about 2-3 weeks.

A very bearish weekly turn

It was a bit of a mixed week for the precious metals. Silver broke a new multi-year high, but along with Gold, weakened into the weekend. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.1% and -3.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Those weekly candles are very bearish, with the spiky tops.

Gold tried to break a new high.. but failed.

Silverbroke a new multi-year high... but then saw a very powerful reversal.
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The mid term trend since the Dec'2015 lows is still intact, but recent price action is increasingly choppy, and increasingly suggestive of a mid term top.

Bearish if... GLD <124... with SLV <17.

Metals rebounding as USD cools

It was a rather bullish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly gains of 2.1% and 3.6% respectively. Both metals are close to breaking recent multi-year highs, although this week's strength was unquestionably partly due to the cooling US dollar.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... two weeks of cooling were almost fully negated this week, as the metals strongly rebounded.

As ever, a key price determinant is the strength.. or weakness of the US dollar.

The DXY 100 threshold is key, so long as that is not breached, the metals will have opportunity to rise, along with the US equity market.