Metals cool into end month

It was a mixed month for the precious metals. First half gains were sharply reversed, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of +$17.10 (1.4%) to $1268.30, and -$0.99 (5.4%) to $17.26 respectively. Near term outlook is choppy, whilst the mid term bullish trend remains intact.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, it was a pretty mixed month for the precious metals. Gold saw a high of $1297.40, with Silver maxing out at $18.66. There sure was some distinct cooling in the second half of the month, arguably largely due to the renewed confidence in the US capital market.

Underlying price pressure remains net positive for both metals, and on balance, I'm looking for another major push higher across the summer.

The obvious first big targets are the summer 2016 highs of Gold $1377 and Silver $21s.

Any weekly/monthly close for Gold >$1400 and Silver in the $22s, would be exceptionally bullish, and offer a grander run to challenge the 2011 historic highs.

It really is a case of whether you believe in the inflationary scenario, or a renewed deflationary wave with a recession before end 2017.

Yours truly is leaning on the former.

Net weekly declines

It was a bearish week for the precious metals, with net weekly declines for Gold and Silver of -0.3% and -3.0% respectively. Gold is still catching a 'fear bid' relative to the more industrial Silver. The upward trend that began from the multi-year low of Dec'2015 remains intact, and the mid term outlook is bullish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, a week of cooling for the metals, but the mid term bullish trend remains comfortable intact.

Key levels.. Gold $1300, and the summer 2016 high of $1377.50.

What should be clear, any price action in the $1400s would be extremely bullish for Gold, and even more so.. for the related mining stocks.

Strong week for Gold and Silver

It was a very bullish week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 2.6% and 2.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, as both metals have now broken the Feb' highs. The next big target are the summer 2016 highs. Gold $1400s and Silver $22s appear due.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The precious metals are being pushed upward by a number of factors. First, there are the various geo-political concerns. Gold is always going to pick up a 'fear bid' on any kind of 'spooky news'. Just yesterday (April 12th), we had President Trump who was overtly calling for a weaker USD. By default.. a weaker USD is bullish for Gold and Silver.

It should be clear, the mid term trend - that links the Dec'2015 and Dec'2016 lows is comfortably intact. With the Feb' highs broken above, the door is open to Gold $1300s and Silver $19s in the near term. Things really get real interesting with a break to Gold $1400s and Silver $22s. 

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Mixed week for the metals

With the 'Syria situation', the precious metals caught some degree of 'fear bid', but that largely faded into the weekend. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.6% and -1.3% respectively. Most notable, Gold has (briefly) broken above the Feb' high, Silver looks set to follow. The mid term bullish trend remains intact.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

With the US launching an overnight attack on Syria, the precious metals both jumped overnight. We saw Gold to $1273.30, and Silver to $18.49. However, the US capital market remains exceptionally confident. The overnight 'fear bid' gains largely faded for Gold, and Silver even settled significantly lower.

Both Gold and Silver are making an attempt to break and hold above the February highs. The weekly candles are pretty spiky on the upper end, and its possible we'll just churn for a few weeks, before a more concerted attempt to push upward.

In either case, those bullish the metals - and the related miners, have no reason to be concerned unless core rising trend (that links the Jan'2016 and Dec'2016 lows) are taken out. In the case of GLD, that will be around $110 in early May, and for SLV... $15.50. Those levels are considerably below current prices.

I am holding to something of an inflationary outlook. I am seeking the summer 2016 highs to be taken out. For decisive 'hyper bullish' clarity, I want to see Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, Copper >$3.00. The related mining ETF of GDX would need to see the $32s.

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Gold leaning upward

Gold has begun a new month and the second quarter, on a moderately positive note. The precious metals Gold ETF of GLD settled net higher by 0.5% to $119.28. There is soft resistance around the $120.00 threshold. Mid term outlook remains bullish.


GLD, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, March ended on a slightly bearish note, but the mid term trend remains bullish. A weekly close >$120 seems due within the next 1-3 weeks.

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