Saturday 30 July 2022

The dollar isn't helping

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July declines of -$25.50 (1.4%) to $1781.80, and -$0.15 (0.8%) to $20.20 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is fairing better due to the s/t bullish equity market.

Gold, monthly1b


 Silver, monthly1b



Gold: printing $1678.40, but recovering to settle in the $1761s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1838, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $18.01, but recovering to settle at $20.20. Momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.73, which silver settled below for a fourth month. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for the rest of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

Dollar strength since early 2021 isn't helping gold, or silver.


The gold-silver ratio stands at 88.22, and whilst its historically high, its far below the March 2020 spike, when silver was printing the $11s. 

Gold can be expected to perform better based on geo-political tensions, whilst silver will be more impacted by the m/t bearish equity market. I would expect the ratio to climb back >100 before year end.

For more of the same... 

For details and the latest offers >