Gold nearing $3000

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January gains of +$194.00 (7.3%) to $2835.00, and +$3.02 (10.3%) to $32.26 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new historic high of $2862.90, if cooling back to settle in the $2835s. Price momentum ticked back upward, and remains on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2555, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. 

Giant psy' $3K is clearly viable within February, if more realistic in March. Lower bond yields and a weaker dollar would help, but aren't a necessity.
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Silver: printing $32.92, but cooling back to settle at $32.26. Momentum is flat-lining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $30.16, which was settled back above, as the s/t trend is back to bullish
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 87.87, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin recently printing a new historic high of $109340, the gold-Bitcoin ratio broke a new historic high, settling January at 36.12. Its a curious thought to realise that it takes a little more than 36x 1oz gold coins to purchase a crypto coin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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A second monthly decline

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December declines of -$40.00 (1.5%) to $2611.00, and -$1.87 (6.0%) to $29.24 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing the $2761s, if cooling back to settle in the $2641s. Higher bond yields nor a stronger dollar helped. Price momentum ticked lower for a second month, but remains on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2495, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Silver: printing $33.33, but cooling back to settle at $29.24. Momentum ticked lower for a second month downward, if remaining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $29.43, which was settled below, as the m/t bullish trend has been broken. 

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling in early 2025. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar continues to strengthen, or if bond yields increase.
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 90.32, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin recently printing a new historic high of $108369, the gold-Bitcoin ratio remains on the very high side, currently 35.36. Its a curious thought to realise that it takes a little more than 35x 1oz gold coins to purchase a digital crypto coin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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Cooling back

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November declines of -$68.30 (2.5%) to $2681.00, and -$1.69 (5.1%) to $31.11 respectively.

Gold, monthly20

Silver, monthly20

Summary

Gold: printing the $2541s, if recovering to settle in the $2681s.. the largest net monthly decline since Sept'2023. Price momentum ticked back downward, but remains on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2437, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Lower bond yields helped, but its arguable that the stronger dollar was a major downward pressure.
The removal of 'election uncertainty' was another downward pressure.
A hit of giant psy' 3K looks out of range before year end.
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Silver: printing $29.75, it recovering to settle at $31.11. The biggest net monthly decline since Dec'2023. Momentum ticked back downward, if remaining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $28.79, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling into year end. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields increase.
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 86.18, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution. Whilst October's ratio leaned a little in favour to silver, both commodities were lower for the month. Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin recently printing a new historic high of $99772, the gold-Bitcoin ratio has broken a new hist' high, currently 36.14. Its a curious thought to realise that it takes around 36x 1oz gold coins to purchase a digital crypto coin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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The USD printed the DXY 108s in November, and was certainly one reason gold was net lower for November.
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