Friday, 31 August 2018

Gold falls for a fifth month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August declines of -$26.90 (2.2%) to $1206.70, and -$1.12 (7.2%) to $14.44 respectively. Mid term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD resumes upward to the DXY 100 threshold.


Gold monthly1b



Silver monthly1b



Summary

Suffice to add, it was a pretty dire month for the precious metals. Gold fell for a fifth consecutive month, seeing a low of $1167.10. Next support is the Dec'2016 low of $1124.30. Silver cooled for a third month, settling at $14.44, the lowest monthly close since Jan'2016.

Frankly... the m/t outlook has to be bearish, not least as King dollar remains broadly strong. Legacy gold target of 900/875 looks viable in 2019. Each rate hike will raise the carrying costs for gold, and we should see two rate hikes in Sept' and Dec'.

Clearly, if gold/silver remain weak into 2019, the related mining stocks will be dragged lower. The monthly close for the ETF of GDX is certainly reflective of m/t weakness in gold/silver.

Friday, 10 August 2018

Silver lower for a ninth week

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -$4.20 (0.3%) to $1219.00, and -$0.17 (1.1%) to $15.30 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD strengthens toward DXY 100. The m/t outlook has turned very bearish, with Silver <$16s, and Gold having failed to hold the Dec'2017 low.


Gold weekly


Silver, weekly


Summary

A ninth consecutive net weekly decline for silver, the worse run in some years.
Gold settled net lower for the 12th week of 17. Cyclically, both metals are on the low side, and due a multi-week bounce. However, the m/t trend for both is bearish.

To turn provisionally bullish, I would need to see Silver >17.50, and Gold >1400. The latter looks very unlikely before year end.

The fed look set to raise rates Sept'26th and Dec'19th. Each rate hike is inherently bearish, raising the carry costs for Gold and especially Silver.
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Miner implications: This week saw GDX fail to hold core support, and its reflective of m/t weakness in the precious metals.

Friday, 27 July 2018

Third week lower for Gold

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -$8.10 (0.6%) to $1223.00, and -$0.06 (0.3%) to $15.49 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD strengthens. The m/t outlook has turned very bearish, with Silver <$16s, and Gold having failed to hold the Dec'2017 low.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add... a third week lower for gold, whilst silver fell for a seventh consecutive week.

It can be argued that both metals are cyclically on the low side, and due a multi-week bounce, but there is ZERO sign of a s/t floor/turn.

Further, the recent breaks of key m/t support bode for far lower levels. With Gold <1230, old legacy target of 900/875 is valid. That would likely equate to Silver $10 or so. I recognise that is a very long way down. I would argue though, unless Gold >1400, the gold bugs have nothing to get confident about.

Friday, 13 July 2018

Gold continues to fall

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -$14.60 (1.2%) to $1241.20, and -$0.25 (1.6%) to $15.81 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD climbs to the DXY 96s or higher. The m/t outlook is turning very bearish, with Silver <$16s, with Gold having failed to hold the Dec'2017 low.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

The precious metals are turning even uglier.

-Gold cooled for the 4th week of 5, whilst Silver declined for a fifth consecutive week.
-Both Gold and Silver are under the rising trend from the key Dec'2015 lows.
-Silver's weekly close <16.00 is decisively bearish.
-Gold broke below the Dec'2017 low of $1238.30

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Gold, Silver, Copper, monthly, 10yr


Copper is leading the way lower, gold is following closely, with silver also leaning weak. Its pretty much outright ugly, with no sign of a s/t floor.

Bearish implications for the related mining stocks, even the upper tier names such as Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX). The cautious will leave the sector well alone.