Friday, 9 December 2016

A fifth week lower for Gold

As the US capital markets continue to grow in confidence, the traditional 'safety play' of Gold is seeing reduced interest. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of -1.5% and +0.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains outright bearish. The only issue is whether Gold/Silver eventually break the Dec'2015 lows.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, this is the worse run in Gold since Nov'2015.. just before Gold floored at $1045.40.

Silver is performing better, and is trading a little closer to Copper, which saw a decisive bullish breakout in November.

The ultimate issue remains... will Gold/Silver break the Dec'2015 lows? For now... its very difficult to say. The one indirect signal that suggest gold/silver will put in a higher low, is copper.

Wednesday, 30 November 2016

A severely bearish November

With US capital markets coming to decide a Trump presidency might actually be a good thing, it was a severely bearish November for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -$99.20 (7.8%) @ $1173.90, and -$1.31 (7.4%) @ $16.48 respectively. Near/mid outlook is bearish, the only issue is whether the Dec'2015 lows are broken under in early 2017.


Gold, monthly2



Silver, monthly2



Summary

A very bearish month indeed...

key issues...

-Higher USD (capital inflows, amid higher rate expectations)... naturally pressuring gold/silver
-Increased market confidence, as the uncertainty of the election has passed, resulting in Gold/Silver losing more of their inherent fear bid.
-Underlying econ-data points in November has been (arguably) rather good.

Near term outlook offers further significant weakness in December. The bigger issue is whether the Dec'2015 lows will be taken out. Its a very difficult issue to guess, but what can be said is that there is ZERO sign of a floor/turn, from the down wave that began in July.
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Implications for the miners

As ever, weakening metals have very bearish implications for the related mining stocks, even as the broader equity market is powering to new historic highs.

Friday, 25 November 2016

A third week lower

It was a third consecutive bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -2.2% and 0.6% respectively. Gold has been particularly hit, as its inherent safety/fear bid continues to fade, as the broader capital markets are increasingly pleased.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add... November is set for a very bearish close. The monthly candle will be of the bearish engulfing type, and that suggests Dec' will see new cycle lows.

The only issue now is whether the Dec'2015 lows will hold.

The one indirect aspect that suggests Gold and Sillver will hold the Dec'2015 lows..... Copper.

Friday, 18 November 2016

A second week lower

It was a second consecutive bearish week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -1.6% and -4.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness to price gap zones. With the USD super strong, mid term outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

With the USD net higher this week by around 2.0% in the DXY 101s, it was not exactly a surprise to see Gold and Silver broadly lower.

Things turn VERY bearish if...  GLD <112 and SLV <$14

If either or both are seen, it would suggest a FULL retrace to the Dec'2015 lows. Further, it would re-open the original target of Gold $900/875, with Silver around $10.

... and if that happened, it'd bode extremely bearish for the related mining stocks, even if the main equity market continued into the sp'2300s and beyond.