Friday, 15 June 2018

Bearish break for gold

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines, -$24.20 (1.9%) to $1278.50, and -$0.26 (1.6%) to $16.48 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD climbs to the DXY 95s or higher. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bearish if Gold <$1238 and Silver <$16s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

The week ended on a very bearish note for the precious metals, with sig' net weekly declines. Gold saw a clear break of rising trend that stretches back to the Dec'2016 low. Last line of defense for the gold bugs is the Dec'2017 low of $1238. Any price action <1230 would break core rising trend from Dec'2015. If that occurred, it would open the door to legacy price target of 900/875

Silver saw a failed rally, cooling from $17.35, to settle at $16.48. The weekly candle is very spiky on the upper end, and bodes s/t bearish. Rising trend from July 2017 will be around $16.40 next week, and looks very vulnerable. Any price action <$16.00 would be very bearish.
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To be clear, s/t bearish, not least with this week's bearish break in Gold. Any further strength in the USD would really pressure gold toward the key $1238 low. 

Friday, 25 May 2018

Gold bouncing from rising trend

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains, +$12.30 (1.0%) to $1303.70, and +$0.09 (0.5%) to $16.55 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside. The m/t outlook will only turn decisively bullish with Gold >$1400 and Silver >$18s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, this weekly gain in gold was pretty important, and negates the s/t threat that the Dec'2017 low of $1238 might be tested. Instead, s/t outlook is bullish into early June. The next rate hike (June 13th) will be a reminder though that rates are still being regularly raised. Higher rates are inherently bearish for gold. 

Things will only turn decisively bullish if Gold can break and hold the $1400 threshold. Arguably, Silver just needs the $18s. 

Friday, 18 May 2018

Bearish metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines, -$29.40 (2.2%) to $1291.30, and -$0.30 (1.8%) to $16.45 respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain, and will be greatly dependent upon the USD and bond yields.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, gold remains stronger than silver, but both metals are lagging the broader commodity complex.

Ongoing s/t strength in the USD and higher bond yields is really keeping the downward pressure on gold, and to a slightly less degree... silver.

Technically, gold and silver both avoided a weekly close under key rising trend. The next few weeks are going to be rather important!

Friday, 11 May 2018

Weekly gains

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains, +$6.00 (0.5%) to $1320.70, and +$0.23 (1.4%) to $16.75 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Gold remains broadly stronger than Silver, but both metals are m/t choppy since early 2017, especially relative to the broader commodity complex.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm still leaning toward an eventual bullish breakout in Gold. For now, there is ZERO sign of that.