Tuesday, 31 March 2020

A wild month for Gold

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net March changes of +$29.90 (1.9%) to $1596.60, and -$2.30 (14.0%) to $14.16 respectively. S/t choppy, but the m/t trend remains bullish, with gold having printed an eight year high of $1704.30.


Gold, monthly1b


Silver, monthly1b


Summary

Gold: A low of $1450.90, a high of $1704.30, and settling in the $1596s. The March candle is dual spiky, and is indicative of capital market instability. There was an element of institutions selling gold to raise much needed cash. The fact gold broke a new EIGHT year high, is a reminder of the m/t bullish trend.

Silver: a second consecutive net monthly decline for 'poor man's gold', printing $11.64, the lowest since Jan'2009. Monthly momentum settled fractionally negative, and leans s/t bearish for early April.

March was a reminder that when things turn crazy, Gold captures a stronger 'fear bid' than Silver. Indeed, Silver further struggled as its a more industrial metal, falling broadly with Copper.
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The Gold Silver ratio broke a new historic high, settling March at 112.79. Again, its indicative that Gold is often the better trade than Silver. I do expect the ratio to narrow, but for now, there is ZERO sign of it.

Friday, 28 February 2020

Very mixed month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February declines of -$21.20 (1.3%) to $1566.70, and -$1.55 (8.6%) to $16.46 respectively. S/t bearish, but the m/t trend remains bullish, with gold having printed a seven year high of the $1691.70.


Gold, monthly1b



Silver, monthly1b



Summary

Gold: printing a high of the $1691s - the highest since Jan'2013, but settling the month badly. The February candle is spiky, and leans s/t bearish for early March. Still m/t bullish though. Any dollar cooling would help re-accelerate gold back upward. The $1700s are realistic within late March/April.

Silver: printing a high of $18.92, but settling the month badly. The February candle is of the bearish engulfing type, and leans at least s/t bearish. Silver is not surprisingly struggling, as its a more industrial metal, and subject to global growth concerns. Still m/t bullish, with big target of the 2016 high of $21.23. Much like gold, a cooler dollar would help.

Saturday, 1 February 2020

Gold and Silver clawing upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January gains of $64.80 (4.2%) to $1587.90, and $0.09 (0.5%) to $18.01 respectively. The m/t trend remains bullish, with multi-month price structure of a bull flag already playing out.


Gold, monthly1b


Silver, monthly1b


Summary

Gold: A second consecutive month higher, seeing a US/Iran spike high of $1613s, and settling in the $1587s. Multi-month price structure of a bull flag has been FULLY confirmed. Further upside to the 1650/1750 zone appears probable within Feb'/March.

Silver: A second consecutive month higher. Price structure of a bull flag has been PROVISIONALLY
confirmed. Further upside to challenge the 2016 high of $21.23 appears realistic within March/April.
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Any USD cooling would merely accelerate gold and silver upward. Further, any equity/capital market upset - whether about Corona, the Dem' nominee, or anything else, would also see gold/silver catch an extra kick upward.

If correct, mid/long term bullish implications for the related mining stocks.

Tuesday, 31 December 2019

Gold and Silver settle 2019

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December gains of +$50.40 (3.4%) to $1523.10, and +$0.81 (4.8%) to $17.92 respectively. For the year, Gold and Silver saw net gains of +18.9% and +15.3% respectively.


Gold monthly1b



Silver monthly 1b



Summary

Gold: significant gains to conclude the year, with a provisional confirmation of the bull flag.

Silver: a strong end to the year, with a provisional confirmation of multi-month price structure of a bull flag.


The outlook and targets

Soft target for Gold is the Sept' high of the $1566s, and then onward to the 1650/1750 zone. A challenge of the Sept'2011 historic high of $1923.70, is clearly viable by late 2020.

Big target for Silver is the 2016 high of $21.23. Any price action >22.00 would be decisive, and have monstrous bullish implications on a mid/long term basis.
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A couple of miscell' videos...



And...




Good wishes for 2020, and indeed... the decade ahead.