Friday, 23 June 2017

A week of moderate swings

It was a week of moderate swings for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers further chop. The mid term outlook is increasingly borderline, as the broader commodity complex remains under downward pressure.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

It was effectively a flat week for the precious metals, after two prior weeks of sig' declines.

Was this week just a pause before renewed downside? Or do have a marginally higher low - relative to early May?

Either Gold and Silver are going to turn very bearish with a break under the May low, or they're going to eventually break above the April high. We'll know the answer soon enough.

Yours truly is especially concerned about Gold, whose MACD (blue bar histogram) weekly cycle is set to turn negative into end June.
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As ever.. price action in Gold and Silver will have big implications for the related mining stocks. Its notable that this week, the sector ETF of GDX saw another fractional break of core rising trend - that extends back to Jan'2016.

Friday, 16 June 2017

A second week lower

The precious metals of Gold and Silver declined for a second consecutive week, settling net lower by -1.0% and -3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens further weakness, especially in Gold. Mid term outlook is increasingly uncertain, as Silver and the related miners broke core rising trend in early May.


GLD weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Gold/GLD: note the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. Its set to turn negative before end June. If that does occur, it will bode for significantly lower levels this summer.

Silver/SLV: Silver has been far weaker than gold since the big turn in Dec'2015. Last week saw a key lower high put in - relative to April, and now its a case of whether the May low ($15.21) is taken out.

Best guess... it sure ain't looking so bullish for the precious metals. Leaning bearish.

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*As ever, how the precious metals trade will have massive implications for the related mining stocks. Its notable that the ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, with another borderline break under core rising trend that extends back to the multi-year low of Jan'2016.

Friday, 9 June 2017

Mixed week for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver ended the week on a rather negative note, which made for net weekly declines of -0.9% and -1.9% respectively. Gold remains stronger than Silver, having broken (if briefly) the April highs, and stalling at the $1300 threshold. Near term outlook offers a little weakness, but mid term outlook remains bullish.


GLD, weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, the weekly candles sure didn't settle bullish, but then the previous 3/4 weeks were rather bullish.

The $1300 threshold is very natural resistance for Gold, and regardless of any further weak-chop next week, I remain leaning bullish commodities for the mid/long term.

Unless the mid term bullish trends - from Dec'2015 are broken and held under, the mid term bullish outlook is justified.

*related mining stocks are also leaning bullish.

Friday, 2 June 2017

Week four for Gold and Silver

The precious metals ended the week on a rather bullish note, which resulted in net weekly gains for Gold and Silver of 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside, as the mid term bullish outlook is back on track, after a very bearish late April/early May.


GLD weekly



SLV weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, May saw a rather strong recovery, and we're seeing further strength in early June.

First big target are the April highs. Any closes for GLD >$123.07 and SLV >$17.60, will open the door to a challenge of the summer 2016 highs.

The grander target is GLD 131, and SLV 19.70s.

In terms of raw-spot prices, things become massively bullish with Gold >$1400, and Silver in the $22s.