Friday, 10 August 2018

Silver lower for a ninth week

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -$4.20 (0.3%) to $1219.00, and -$0.17 (1.1%) to $15.30 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD strengthens toward DXY 100. The m/t outlook has turned very bearish, with Silver <$16s, and Gold having failed to hold the Dec'2017 low.


Gold weekly


Silver, weekly


Summary

A ninth consecutive net weekly decline for silver, the worse run in some years.
Gold settled net lower for the 12th week of 17. Cyclically, both metals are on the low side, and due a multi-week bounce. However, the m/t trend for both is bearish.

To turn provisionally bullish, I would need to see Silver >17.50, and Gold >1400. The latter looks very unlikely before year end.

The fed look set to raise rates Sept'26th and Dec'19th. Each rate hike is inherently bearish, raising the carry costs for Gold and especially Silver.
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Miner implications: This week saw GDX fail to hold core support, and its reflective of m/t weakness in the precious metals.

Friday, 27 July 2018

Third week lower for Gold

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -$8.10 (0.6%) to $1223.00, and -$0.06 (0.3%) to $15.49 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD strengthens. The m/t outlook has turned very bearish, with Silver <$16s, and Gold having failed to hold the Dec'2017 low.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add... a third week lower for gold, whilst silver fell for a seventh consecutive week.

It can be argued that both metals are cyclically on the low side, and due a multi-week bounce, but there is ZERO sign of a s/t floor/turn.

Further, the recent breaks of key m/t support bode for far lower levels. With Gold <1230, old legacy target of 900/875 is valid. That would likely equate to Silver $10 or so. I recognise that is a very long way down. I would argue though, unless Gold >1400, the gold bugs have nothing to get confident about.

Friday, 13 July 2018

Gold continues to fall

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -$14.60 (1.2%) to $1241.20, and -$0.25 (1.6%) to $15.81 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD climbs to the DXY 96s or higher. The m/t outlook is turning very bearish, with Silver <$16s, with Gold having failed to hold the Dec'2017 low.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

The precious metals are turning even uglier.

-Gold cooled for the 4th week of 5, whilst Silver declined for a fifth consecutive week.
-Both Gold and Silver are under the rising trend from the key Dec'2015 lows.
-Silver's weekly close <16.00 is decisively bearish.
-Gold broke below the Dec'2017 low of $1238.30

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Gold, Silver, Copper, monthly, 10yr


Copper is leading the way lower, gold is following closely, with silver also leaning weak. Its pretty much outright ugly, with no sign of a s/t floor.

Bearish implications for the related mining stocks, even the upper tier names such as Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX). The cautious will leave the sector well alone.

Friday, 6 July 2018

Gold breaks a new low

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +$1.30 (0.1%) to $1255.80, and -$0.13 (0.8%) to $16.07 respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, not least if the USD climbs to the DXY 96s or higher. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bearish if Gold <$1230 and Silver <$16s.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly


Summary

Suffice to add, it was not a great week for the precious metals. Whilst gold did settle net higher for the week, it was a fractional gain. Further, gold came within 50 cents of the Dec'2017 low of $1238.30.

Cyclically, neither metal are offering any kind of clear floor/turn. Price structure in Silver was arguably a giant wedge/triangle.. and that clearly broke to the downside a few weeks ago.

As ever, any further strength in the USD will be a downward pressure on commodities, especially gold and silver.