Friday, 13 January 2017

A third week of gains

The precious metals continue to battle upward. Gold and Silver settled higher for a third consecutive week, by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, as the bigger weekly MACD cycle is set for a bullish cross within 2-3 weeks.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, the ongoing gains are interesting, but more broadly, the metals still look a little suspect. Its going to take another few weeks to have any real confidence that the Dec'2015 lows won't be broken.

For the more conservative out there, Gold $1300s remain a valid level to have confidence.

For the ultra cautious... waiting to chase until Gold in the $1400s.

Friday, 30 December 2016

Net yearly gains for the metals

There was some moderate weakness into the yearly close, with Gold and Silver seeing Friday falls of -0.6% and -1.4% respectively. For the month, Gold and Silver saw net declines of -1.9% and -3.5% respectively. For 2016, Gold saw a net gain of $91.20 (8.6%) to $1151.70, and Silver $2.17 (15.7%) to $15.99.


Gold, monthly2



Silver, monthly2



Summary

Dec'2015 saw Gold and Silver put in very important floors of $1060.50 and $13.82 respectively. From those lows, Gold and Silver rallied strongly into summer 2016, with peaks of $1377.50 and $21.23 respectively.

With the capital markets able to quickly shrug off BREXIT, market confidence climbed for the remainder of the year - not least via a Trump victory.The inherent fear bid that is a significant part of the precious metals was further eroded, which certainly contributed to cooling prices into year end.

The mid term trend for Gold and Silver is clearly still bearish. That only provisionally changes, if Gold $1300s. For full bullish clarity, I need to see the $1400s.

Note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the giant monthly cycles... both Gold and Silver are set to see price momentum turn outright bearish in Jan/Feb' 2017. By definition, further sig' downside is ahead in the short/mid term.

Arguably, the best outcome for the gold bugs would be if the metals managed to just churn sideways for 2-3 months, building a floor - much like late 2015. For now.. there is simply NO sign of such a floor.

-
As ever, the direction of gold and silver prices will have a massive impact on the related mining stocks. As noted elsewhere for the ETF of GDX, short/mid term outlook remains bearish.

Friday, 23 December 2016

Metals still broadly weak

The mid term downward trend continued for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -0.2% and -2.4% respectively. Gold notably fell for a seventh consecutive week, the worse run since May 2004. For now, there is simply zero sign of a mid term floor.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

*GLD was first listed in Nov'2004. It has NEVER seen seven consecutive net weekly declines.

Keep in mind, spot gold last saw 7 weeks of declines in May 2004.
--

Suffice to add... short/mid term... we're clearly versold... but there is absolutely ZERO sign of a floor/turn.

The core issue remains... will the Dec'2015 lows hold in first half of 2017?

If Gold breaks <$1045, it'd offer a fast run to the $1k threshold, with a broader downside target of 900/875, and that'd likely equate to Silver in the $12/10s.
--

As ever, there are major implications for the related mining stocks. For now.. with no sign of a mid term floor in Gold/Silver, the long-miner trade seems pointless.

Friday, 16 December 2016

A sixth week lower for Gold

With US capital markets remaining broadly confident, the precious metals of Gold and Silver continued to broadly cool, with net weekly declines of -2.2% and -4.4% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bearish, as there is zero sign that a floor is near. The Dec'2015 lows are well within range by spring 2017.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, with the USD breaking into the DXY 103s, the precious metals remained under broad downward pressure.

Further, as the US capital markets have successfully coped with a rate hike, Gold/Silver are seeing more of their fear bid diminish.

Without question, there is no sign of a mid term floor, and its now merely a case of whether the Dec'2015 lows are broken next year.
-

*as ever, the related mining stocks will be largely dependent on price action in gold/silver. The mining stocks are currently within a mid term downward trend that began in August.