Monday, 30 September 2019

Very mixed month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw powerful net September declines of $56.50 (3.7%) to $1472.90, and $1.34 (7.3%) to $17.00 respectively. The m/t trend remains bullish, as Gold $1800s and Silver $21s are still within range before year end.


Gold, monthly1b



Silver, monthly1b



Summary

Gold: seeing a new cycle high of $1566.22, but settling in the $1472s. Monthly price momentum has levelled out, but remains strongly positive. Only bearish if the breakout zone of 1400/1370s is traded and held under.

Silver: a new cycle high of $19.75, but settling at $17.00. Monthly price momentum remains moderately positive. Still broadly choppy. Things only turn decisively m/t bullish with the >22s.


Gold-Silver ratio


Whilst the ratio ticked back upward in September, the June high of 94.06 looks secure. I'm expecting a renewed decline to the 67/66s, as Silver can be expected to play catchup to Gold.

Friday, 30 August 2019

Precious metals powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw powerful net August gains of $91.60 (6.4%) to $1529.40, and $1.94 (11.8%) to $18.34 respectively. The m/t trend is bullish, as Gold $1800s and Silver $21s are within range before year end.


Gold, monthly1b



Silver, monthly1b



Summary

Gold: a fourth consecutive net monthly gain, the highest monthly settlement since March 2013. Next major resistance is the 1790/1800 zone. New historic highs (>$1923.70) look out of range until early 2020... unless the Fed initiate QE4, which looks unlikely until at least spring 2020.

Silver: a third consecutive net monthly gain, the highest monthly settlement since Sept'2016. Soft target is key price threshold of the $21s, with the 2016 high of $21.23. Any price action >22s would offer fast upside to psy'30.


Its notable that Silver is playing catch-up to Gold, with the Gold:Silver ratio having fallen from the 92s to 83s.


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Gold/Silver implications for related mining stocks: As we've seen since June, the related mining stocks are broadly soaring. Some are already above their respective 2016 highs, whilst GDX is still a little below.

If you believe Gold is going to break new historic highs... whether before year end, or a far more viable 2020/21, the implications for the related mining stocks should be clear.

Saturday, 29 June 2019

Gold decisively breaks out

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw powerful net June gains of $102.60 (7.8%) to $1413.70, and $0.77 (5.3%) to $15.34 respectively. The breakout in Gold is decisive, and offers soft target of psy'1500.


Gold, monthly1b


Silver, monthly1b



Summary

Gold has seen a decisive breakout, printing the $1442s, and settling in the $1413s.

Silver was clearly helped via price action in gold, although broadly, is still flat lining. Things only turn interesting with the $21s.

Both metals were helped via a cooler USD, swinging from the DXY 97s to the 95s.
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The related mining stocks are naturally reacting.

Tuesday, 30 April 2019

A third month of cooling

The precious metals of Gold and Silver both cooled for a third consecutive month, with net April declines of -$12.80 (1.0%) to $1285.70, and -$0.13 (0.8%) to $14.98 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b


Silver, monthly1b


Summary

A third consecutive net monthly decline for the precious metals of gold and silver.

The weakness from the Jan' high is arguably largely due to two factors. First, the broadly strong USD. Second, the recovery in confidence with the capital markets, helped by an increasingly dovish fed.

I do anticipate eventual rate cuts - which would be inherently bullish gold/silver, but I don't see such cuts until after the QT program has concluded end Sept'.

The more cautious gold/silver bulls will wait to chase with Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s.