Friday, 24 March 2017

A second week higher

Gold and Silver climbed for a second consecutive week, with net weekly gains of 1.6% and 2.1% respectively. Mid term bullish trend remains bullish. Things only turn bearish with a break below core rising trend that links the Dec'2015 and Dec'2016 lows.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

The cooling USD - back below the giant psy' level of DXY 100, is certainly helping to pressure the metals upward.

The Feb' highs for Gold and Silver are within range for next week. Once that level is broken above, the grander target remains the summer 2016 highs - GLD $131s and SLV $19s.

Effectively, any price action in the 132s and 20s - whether this spring, or not until later in the year, would be exceptionally bullish.

Key thresholds to keep in mind: Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, and Copper >$3.00.

Friday, 17 March 2017

Gold and Silver turn upward

After two consecutive net weekly declines, with the fed out of the way, the precious metals have turned back upward. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, and the grander issue remains whether the summer 2016 highs can be exceeded.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

As was the case for the mining stocks, it had seemed that once the FOMC had made their announcement, the metals would rebound... and they sure did.

Seen on the bigger weekly cycles, we've seen a two week cooling, and now the first push back upward. The recent highs are easily with range. The grander issue is whether Gold and Silver can break decisively above their summer 2016 highs.

I am seeking a big push upward, with Gold $1400 and Silver $22s (along with Copper >$3), which would give high confidence that the inflationary scenario will play out.

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Friday, 10 March 2017

A second week lower

The precious metals had another difficult week, with Gold and Silver net lower by -2.4% and -4.9% respectively. Cyclically, near term outlook is for at least a bounce, with the bigger mid term upward trend still comfortably intact.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

*note how Silver dropped by around twice as much as Gold, which is the typical ratio of movement.
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Suffice to add, the precious metals have continued to struggle as the US capital market has been pricing in a (near certainty) rate hike at the March 15th FOMC.

Cyclically, the metals were due a cooling cycle - having ramped from the Dec'2016 low to mid February.

Rising trend really should hold next week. For GLD that will be around 109, and for SLV - 15.25. Unless those levels are broken, those holding to a more inflationary outlook have little to be concerned about.
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Friday, 3 March 2017

Rough week for Gold and Silver

It was the most bearish week for the precious metals since Dec'2016, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -1.7% and -2.4% respectively. Near term outlook does threaten further weakness, but the bigger mid term trend is bullish unless the Dec'2016 lows are broken under.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

With the US capital market in super confident mood, the precious metals saw a marked lack of faith this week. The USD strengthening into the DXY 102s sure didn't help either.

However, its important to keep things in perspective. GLD has rallied around 12% since the Dec'2016 low, with SLV having risen around 17%. These are very significant gains, and periodic retraces have to be expected.

For now, the broader trend is bullish. That only provisionally changes if rising trend is broken. The metal/miner bears can only really get excited if the Dec'2016 lows are broken. On balance, that really doesn't seem viable, even if the USD can climb another 2-3% into early summer.

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