Friday, 19 January 2018

A little cooling

It was a choppy week of cooling for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly declines of -$1.80 (0.1%) to $1333.10, and -$0.11 (0.6%) to $17.04 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

The first net weekly decline for Gold since early December, whilst Silver cooled for a second week.

Gold isn't far from what would be a very decisive breakout: >$1400. If that is seen this spring/summer, we'd see a fast run to psy' $1500, and the 1600/700s by year end.

Silver remains notably weaker than Gold, and is way below the highs from early 2017. Things would arguably only turn decisively bullish with >$22s.

Copper and oil are indirectly supportive of the notion that gold/silver will eventually catch up across 2018. If correct, very bullish implications for the related gold mining stocks, such as Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont (NEM).

Friday, 12 January 2018

A mixed week for the metals

It was a mixed week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly changes of +$12.60 (0.9%) to $1334.90, and -$0.14 (0.8%) to $17.14 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

Despite a net weekly decline in Silver, it did close well above the Thursday low of $16.88.

The precious metals are clearly being helped via the broadly weak USD, which settled around the DXY 90.60s.

Copper and oil are both strongly supportive of the m/t bullish commodity outlook. Gold and Silver should eventually 'join the party' this spring or summer.
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Copper, gold, silver, monthly, 10yr


The trio do broadly trade together on a multi-year basis. Recent broad strength in copper is highly suggestive that gold/silver will eventually catch up.

Friday, 5 January 2018

A fourth week higher

The precious metals of Gold and Silver climbed for a fourth consecutive week, with net weekly gains of $13.00 (1.0%) to $1322.30, and $0.14 (0.8%) to $17.28 respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. The m/t outlook would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22s.


Gold weekly


Silver weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a fourth week higher for the precious metals. Note how the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles have seen a bullish cross, as price momentum is now outright bullish (at least in the short term). More broadly though, price action is still choppy.

The metal bulls should be seeking a decisive push for gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00. The latter has been seen of course.

Copper, gold, silver, monthly, 10yr


The trio do broadly trade together across the years. Copper is unquestionably m/t bullish, and indirectly suggest that gold and silver will (eventually) catch up.

Friday, 29 December 2017

Gold and Silver - 2017

Gold and Silver ended the year on a positive note, settling net higher for the week by 2.4% and 4.3% respectively. For December, Gold and Silver saw net gains of 2.5% and 4.1% respectively. For 2017, Gold and Silver saw significant net gains of 13.7% and 7.2% respectively.


Gold weekly



Gold monthly1b



Silver weekly



Silver monthly1b



Summary

The precious metals certainly ended the year on a very positive note, with a third consecutive week of gains. This made for a sig' net monthly gain. More broadly, after gains into the spring, it was mostly a year of chop.

On a grand perspective, it should be clear that things would turn decisively bullish if Gold >$1400s, and Silver >$22s. 

I am heavily leaning to the notion that 'Mr inflation is out there'. We are seeing indirect support for that view via copper and oil.

Eyes on the CRB...


Any price action >197 would be highly suggestive gold/silver will follow upward in 2018.