Friday 5 April 2013

Metals rally into the weekend

With bad jobs data, fears that QE will end diminished, and the precious metals rallied quite strongly. Yet, across the week, Gold and Silver were still lower, and indeed, those earlier falls have caused some serious technical damage, to both the short and mid-term trading cycles.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly


Summary

It was indeed a rough week for anyone who was long the precious metals.

Gold and Silver declined by 1.1 and 3.8% respectively across the week, certainly, those declines only added to the mid-term declines since the highs from last September.

As things are, there is still absolutely no sign of a turn or levelling phase. Yes, there are possible flooring spikes - especially seen on Gold, but the gains seen on Friday could easily be temporary.


Near term upside targets...

Assuming the near term bounce continues, best case remains....

GLD; 158/160
SLV, 29/30,  31 seems really difficult.

On balance, I would anticipate that when the next bounce fails to break the upper channel on the weekly charts...we'll see the next down cycle take out the summer 2012 lows...at which point there is a great deal of open air on the downside.

SLV first target would be 22/20..if not the 19/17 zone later this summer
GLD, 145/140...with a 3-6 month target of 120.

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If those latter downside targets are hit, a lot of the Gold/Silver bug community are going to be more than merely displeased, they are going to be infuriated.