Friday, 15 July 2016

The bullish run ends

With US/world capital market confidence continuing to improve, the precious metals of Gold and Silver struggled, with net weekly declines of -2.9% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is moderately bearish. With equities breaking 'up and away', the mid term outlook is now extremely uncertain.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


As I've noted across the past few months, the precious metals have been broadly trading inverse to equities/capital market confidence.

With new historic highs in the sp'500 and Dow, it was not surprising to see the bullish run in gold/silver come to an end.

Of course, one net weekly decline does not negate the bigger bullish breakout. The gold/silver bugs do have plenty of downside buffer zone.

The critical thresholds...

GLD 115.. aka.. Gold $1200
SLV 15, aka... Silver $16.

Any price action below those levels would bode very badly, and open the door to new multi-year lows... to Gold $900 and Silver $10.

As ever, the USD is a key variable. If the USD breaks >DXY 100 at any point, it would be a massive downward pressure on the metals.