Friday 7 October 2016

Powerful net weekly declines

It was the most bearish week for the precious metals since Sept'2013, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -4.7% and -8.8% respectively. Near term threatens a bounce, but mid term outlook is now bearish, as rising trend from the Dec'2015 lows has been decisively broken.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Gold and Silver have both now decisively broken the rising trend from the Dec'2015 lows. It can be counted as 'week 1' down.. from the break.

Next week could easily see a net weekly gain, but it will do nothing to negate what is a massively significant break.

In theory... GLD will cool to at least the 115s.. which would equate to Gold losing another $30/40. SLV looks vulnerable to the $15s... equating to Silver $16s.
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*price structure in a number of mining stocks is offering a VERY big bull flag. In theory, that would suggest this past week's declines in Gold/Silver won't lead to breaking the Dec'2015 lows.

On balance.. its a VERY borderline situation.

As ever, the USD will be a key variable... any move above DXY 100 would bode for Gold <$1000, with Silver $10.