Tuesday 4 October 2016

Metals smashed lower

It was a brutally bearish day for the precious metals, as talk of an early end to ECB QE, gave the excuse for a weaker Euro and stronger USD. Gold and Silver saw severe net daily declines of -3.3% and -5.0% respectively. Gold has seen a particularly decisive break of rising trend that stretches back to the Dec'2015 low. Outlook... bearish.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Seen on the bigger weekly charts, its somewhat of a more mixed picture. Gold has decisively broken rising trend, whilst Silver still has a little further downside buffer.
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The situation is that the mining stocks were an early warning that the metals were in trouble. The ETF of GDX saw a giant bearish engulfing candle in August.

Now we have a very clear break of rising trend in Gold... with the miners continuing to spiral lower.

Gold is only just beginning a down wave that (in theory) should last at least two full months... taking us into early Dec'... just before the Fed appear set to raise rates.

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An old target of Gold $900/875 is not on the menu yet, but if GLD can't hold $115.. aka... Gold $1220 (or so)... it'll bode for a brutal 2017 for the gold bugs.