Friday, 18 August 2017

The struggling metals

With less war talk between the US and the DPRK, the precious metals are starting to struggle. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, not least if the USD can push into the DXY 94s.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

This morning (August 18th) saw Gold break the $1300 threshold for the first time since Nov'2016, but it couldn't hold it, as capital market confidence was regained into the afternoon.

... and for Gold/Silver, price action is often swayed by sporadic geo-political chatter.

Technically, price momentum is net positive (if only moderately) for both gold and silver. It can also be said the trend since July is on the positive side. Yet.. gold is clearly stuck around $1300, and Silver has a particularly bearish set of lower highs from April.

For now.... 'Mr Inflation' is yet to be seen, and that is naturally holding back most of the related mining stocks. 
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It remains notable that one indirect bullish signal is copper, which settled higher for a sixth consecutive week, and is very close to challenging the key $3.00 threshold.

Copper, weekly


Any weekly/monthly close for copper >$3.00, would bode bullish for gold/silver, and the related miners.

Friday, 11 August 2017

Bullish engulfing candles

The precious metals started the week on a weak note, but then caught a rather powerful 'fear bid', with Gold and Silver settling net higher by $29.40 (2.3%) to $1294.00, and $0.82 (5.0%) to $17.07 respectively. The bullish engulfing candles lean to further upside within the near term.


Gold weekly



Silver weekly



Summary

First, its notable that Gold is still considerably stronger than Silver.

It has been an interesting thing to see last week's declines fully negated, with both Gold and Silver swinging powerfully upward.

A rather bullish indirect signal is via the industrial metal of copper, which is just below the very important $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close (whether August.. or beyond) >$3.00 for copper, would bode bullish for Gold and Silver. The trio generally trade together on a multi-year basis, and if copper continues to rise, its almost impossible not to see Gold and Silver follow.
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*As ever, there are implications for the related mining stocks. The mining bulls really need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

A hyper bullish mining outlook... requires Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.

Friday, 4 August 2017

Metals cooling again

The short term bullish run for the precious metals has come to an end, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -$10.70 (0.8%) to $1264.60, and -$0.44 (2.6%) to $16.25 respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with Silver leading the way lower. 


Gold, weekly



Silver, weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, with the USD ending the week with a bounce (partly inspired by the jobs data), the precious metals are under some significant downward pressure.

Silver is particularly bearish, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gold remains within the mid term bullish trend from Dec'2015.

The one indirect bullish aspect... copper, which recently broke above key resistance of $2.70, and is currently close to the key $3.00 threshold. Any monthly close >$3.00 would eventually suggest Gold and Silver will eventually catch up.