Gold and Silver reversal

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October gains of +$139.31 (3.6%) to $3998.45, and +$1.91 (4.1%) to $48.57 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new hist' high of $4381.58, if cooling back to the $3998s. Price momentum ticked upward, and remains on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $3323, which was settled above, as the l/t trend remains bullish. 

The October candle was very spiky on the upper side, indicative of tired bulls. 
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Silver: printing a new hist' high of $54.49, if cooling back to the mid $48s. Momentum continued to tick upward, and is on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $36.98, which was settled above, as the l/t trend remains bullish.

The October candle was very spiky on the upper side, indicative of tired bulls. 
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So... net monthly gains for gold and silver, but October did see a rather powerful downside reversal. Further cooling to test the monthly 10MA... around $3500 and psy' $40, would be the natural outcome, before resuming upward.
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The gold-silver ratio fell to 82.33, but remains historically high. I'd accept that on a long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin (as at October 31st) around $109K, the Gold-Bitcoin ratio has decreased, settling October to around 27.38. It remains a curious thought that it takes a little over twenty seven 1oz gold coins to purchase a one bitcoin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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Gold pushing toward $4K

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September gains of +$410.24 (11.9%) to $3859.40, and +$6.93 (17.4%) to $46.64 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new hist' high of $3871.28, a massive September gain, settling in the $3447s. Price momentum ticked back upward, and remains on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $3186, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. 

The September candle was solid, making for the highest ever monthly settlement. 
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Silver: printing $47.18 - the highest since May 2011. Momentum accelerated upward, and is on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $35.00, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.

The September candle is solid, making for the highest monthly settlement since April 2011. 
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a future geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio fell to 82.75, but remains historically high. I'd accept that on a long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin (as at October 1st) around $114K, the Gold-Bitcoin ratio has decreased, settling September to around 29.56. It remains a curious thought that it takes a little under thirty one 1oz gold coins to purchase a bitcoin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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Positive August

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August gains of +$159.33 (4.8%) to $3447.83, and +$3.02 (8.2%) to $39.70 respectively.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: a powerful August gain, settling in the $3447s. Price momentum weakened for a third month, and remains on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $3065, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. 

The August candle was solid, making for the highest ever monthly settlement. 

I have moderate concern of a washout into the Fall to 3100/3000, if bond yields spike with a stronger dollar.
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Silver: printing $39.97 - the highest since Sept'2011. Momentum ticked upward, and remains on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $33.40, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.

The August candle is solid, making for the highest monthly settlement since Sept'2011. 

I've concern of a washout into the Fall to the $35/34s within Sept/Oct', not least if the main market sees a correction of around 10% to the SPX 5800s.
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still massively outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a future geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio fell to 86.85, but remains historically VERY high. I'd accept that on a long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
--

 

With Bitcoin (as at August 29th) around $108K, the Gold-Bitcoin ratio has decreased, settling August to around 31.43. It remains a curious thought to realise that it takes a little more than thirty one 1oz gold coins to purchase a bitcoin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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