Metals remain on a slow slide

Despite the mild hysteria in the capital markets due to European concerns, the precious metals are still failing to catch a bid in terms of 'flight to safety'. It really is a case just like in 2008, where if the main market/asset classes sell off...so will the metals.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Silver remains weaker - as usual, and is near the next support level..a break under 26 will open up 22..and even 20. Gold looks set to decisively break 1500, and then a swift move to 1300, perhaps 1200.

So, mid-term targets remain unchanged for Gold/Silver, somewhere in the zone of $1200 and $20 respectively.

A relatively flat week for the Precious Metals

With the main equity markets rising, the metals largely closed the week unchanged. This was actually very impressive considering the mighty US Dollar was up around 1.6% on the week.


GLD, weekly, 2yr

SLV, weekly, 2yr

Summary

Silver remains weaker than Gold, and even if it bounces here its unlikely to break much above 29/30, perhaps 31/32 briefly - and that's 'best case'. The weekly chart continues to suggest much lower levels this summer - in the 22/20 range, possibly $18 - if the deflationary doomers are right.

Gold has been battling to re-take $1600, but its weak..and despite the Gold-Bug maniacs incessant claims that Gold is invulnerable to deflation, Gold remains in a decline - primary target remains somewhere in the $1400/1200 range.

Metals - the bigger picture

The broad equity and commodity markets saw what was probably the start of a new up cycle today. However, for the metals, the monthly charts are still not encouraging.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

This month has already been a very significant month for Gold - breaking the rising trend/channel since 2008. Even a bounce of 50/75$ late this May/early June will not negate the primary trend break we have just seen.

Silver remains weaker - as usual, and even a bounce to the 31/32$ would not break the current strong downward trend.

I remain holding to mid term targets of around $1200 and $20 for Gold/Silver respectively.

Metals make a break higher!

Despite the main equity market falling again today, Gold and Silver actually had a strong day. This is doubtless partly due to the currency markets, where the Euro is actually suggesting a floor is being put in (it closed with a reversal candle).


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Long term bearish trends continue, this is merely a bounce along the way to $1200 and $20 respectively. 

Metals due a bounce 'soon'

Silver had yet another lousy day, losing 49 cents. The down trend has appeared to accelerate in recent days, yet we are surely likely to exhaust this down cycle soon. The previous low of 25.65 last December will act as a good bounce level.


SLV, daily

Summary

The trend remains bearish, but even the strongest down trends will have brief - and often strong bounces. A move into the mid 28s seems very viable by the end of next week. The late summer/Autumn target of 22/20 remains though.

Its Tuesday..so the metals must be down

Another day...another lousy day for Gold and Silver. The weekly and monthly cycles are really hammering both metals lower almost every day. A severe 'snap' still seems likely, so the bigger/harder falls appear still yet to come.


GLD, weekly, 2yr

SLV, weekly, 2yr

Summary

Trend remains down...the 'low-end' targets for late summer 2012 remain somewhere around $1200 and $20. Eventual lows could be even lower though, much will depend on when/if the Bernanke decides to initiate QE3.

Yet another rough day for Gold/Silver

A new week, and those metals are off to another nasty start. Both Gold and Silver suffered further significant losses. Gold is clearly in an accelerated down trend, and Silver looks like it is following too.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

There is nothing in the near term to support any consistent multi-week bounce. Both the weekly and monthly cycles are warning of a major snap lower -something which not that many are forecasting.

The summer 2012 outlook for Gold and Silver remains $1400 and $25 respectively 'minimum' targets.....but they could go as low as $1200 / $20, if the main market weakens to around sp'1150/00.

Another failed rally for Gold

Gold closed up today, but lower than the opening gap, and thus we saw a black doom/fail candle. The primary trend remaind down, both on the monthly and weekly cycles. Target later this year remains $1400 at least, possibly $1200.


GLD, daily

I've added a new strong downtrend to the daily Gold chart. From a MACD cycle perspective, Gold is pretty low in its cycle, and could possibly turn upward, but so far there is no sign of it.
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Gold breaks a critical 2008/12 channel line

The trend has been weak for both Gold and Silver for some months. Today, GLD broke a key level on the monthly cycle. From a big perspective, it is now absolutely clear, Gold is going to $1200..and Silver to $20/17.50..sometime later this year.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

The trend is clear, today's loss in Gold is a VERY important break through a key support/channel. It violates a trend line going back to October 2008. Gold/Silver will probably bounce a little for a few days now, but it won't last, the weeks..and next few months will be brutal for the Precious metals market.

The decline...is relentless

With the main equity indexes seemingly having peaked at sp'1422, it looks like the falling equity and general weakness in the commodity markets will only add to the woes for those bullish about the precious metals in the near term.


SLV, weekly

GLD, weekly

Summary

Not too much to add right now, the trends are continuing as expected. Holding to mid-term targets (no later than October), for Gold and Silver of $1200 and $20 respectively. They are indeed bold targets, and we may instead floor around $1400/1500 and $25/26...we'll be able to refine precise floor targets as we move into mid-summer.

Another down day for Gold & Silver

The weakness continues. Again, on a day when the broader markets were up, the Precious metals failed to participate/hold onto early gains.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

SLV again flirts with the big $30 level, and still looks set for a bigger snap down sometime 'soon'. GLD remains stronger, but the last few days have still failed to offer a decisive new move higher.

The bigger weekly and monthly cycles remain warning of bigger falls to come across the early summer.