Choppy day for the metals

The precious markets saw some interesting price swings, partly a result of the latest FOMC announcement..that 'nothing changes' in terms of rates/QE. Gold closed +0.1%, but Silver slipped -0.6%. Near term price formation is getting messy, and inclined to the downside.


SLV'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

Certainly, the FOMC announcement saw a rather severe snap to the upside, but there was renewed weakness in the closing hour - as the SLV hourly chart displays.

The daily charts are indeed a bit of a mess. We have small bull flags - now around 8 days in duration, but they are within larger bear flags, that stretch back to the June lows.

Baring a few daily closes above the old broken support - SLV $20.50, and GLD $131, it would appear the metals are failing..as they have done for the past 10 months.
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Mid-term downside targets remain SLV 12/10, and GLD in the 90s.

Metals on the edge

Gold and Silver opened particularly weak (along with WTIC Oil), and despite closing off their lows, the declines were indicative of a monthly trend that remains severely to the downside. There is very strong resistance at the old broken support, around SLV $20.50


SLV'60min

SLV, daily

Summary

*I was stopped out of SLV early this morning, with the break under the rising channel - as best seen on the hourly chart.

SLV closed -11 cents @ $19.03. Frankly, that is a pretty weak close, and sets up what could be some wild price action on FOMC Wednesday.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the daily chart ticked lower for the fifth consecutive day, and is set to go negative cycle in about 2-3 trading days.

Indeed, by the end of this week, baring a clear break above the old support ($20.50), SLV - and GLD, will probably start yet another multi-week down cycle.

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Mid-term downside targets remain SLV 12/10, with GLD in the 90s.

Weak metals

The metals began the week with minor declines, with Gold and Silver falling by 0.24% and 0.85% respectively. Price action is slightly bullish in the immediate term, but prices remain just below what is very strong resistance.


GLD, daily

SLV'60min

Summary

It is increasingly looking like the metals are going to fail in this latest rally, but it remains an extremely borderline situation.

Daily charts are offering a bull flag, with the weekly charts now positive MACD cycle for Gold (but not yet Silver).

Mid-term outlook into 2014 though, still looking for much lower levels.
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A bit of a mess indeed!

Precious Metals - net gains for the week

Despite some weakness in the latter half of the week, the precious metals still managed net gains on the week, with Gold and Silver +2.9% and 2.3% respectively. Weekly charts are showing Gold with a break of the down channel, Silver is yet to follow.


GLD weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow

Summary

The rather giant gap higher at the Monday open remains something of an anomaly, and despite some weakness in the past three days, the metals are still battling higher.

Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is at a very interesting junction.

If the metals can claw just another week higher, that will open up much higher levels... of GLD 147 and SLV 26 - within the next 2-6 weeks.


Best guess for the near term

Considering the MACD trend...it does look like the metals will break to the upside next week. Yet, in the past 9 months, we've seen time and again..such rallies fail. Next week will indeed be rather interesting.

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*I am holding SLV (long) across the weekend, seeking an exit in the low 20s, before the FOMC announcement of July'31.

Bull flag, or another fail?

After some initial weakness, Gold and Silver saw moderate gains into the late afternoon, closing +0.93% and 0.16% respectively. Near term trend is still somewhat to the upside, but Gold and Silver are still clearly stuck just below old broken support, now resistance


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

This is indeed a tricky situation for those traders meddling in the metals market right now.

The broader trend is clearly to the downside, whilst near term, we've seen a rather significant bounce from the lows.

The daily charts are offering small bulls flags, now 4 days in duration, right below the old broken support from mid-June.

Considering the past 6-9 months, we're more likely to see a fail, than seeing the bull flag confirmed.

The one particularly bullish aspect is that the weekly charts are slightly suggestive of further upside, although this is more especially the case for Gold, than Silver.

Metals slip back

The precious metals saw rather significant declines develop across the day, with Gold and Silver closing lower by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively. Despite the declines, the broader trend remains to the upside, although both metals are sitting just below old broken support..now resistance.


GLD'60min

SLV'60min

Summary

On an hourly cycle, the precious metals looks floored. Considering the bigger weekly cycles have broken to the upside, I have to guess todays declines was just a natural pull back.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is very low, and the metals look set for upside across Thurs/Friday.

Near term (3-5 week) 'best bull case' targets are GLD 145/147...with SLV 25/26

Metals snap to the upside

Whilst the main US markets were quiet, there was big action in the precious metals market. Gold and Silver saw very significant gains, closing +3.0% and 4.7% respectively. Both metals are now approaching the old broken support from the recent June snap lower.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Certainly, with the break above Gold $1300, market interest in the metals is increasing again.

Yet, Gold and Silver are still possibly within large bear flags, and even more importantly..both are still unquestionably below the old broken support.

*weekly charts are showing the turn even clearer, but the bigger monthly charts are still generally bearish into 2014/15.
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The metals could easily rally for a few days, weeks, even a month or two, but baring a move above GLD 150, and SLV 25, the broad trend is STILL bearish.

Those in the gold bug community - still relentlessly calling a floor, need to see a good few months of upside before  they have any real right to be confident about the outlook into next year.

Metals remain within strong down trends

With the main US equity/commodity markets broadly climbing, the precious metals are still struggling. Gold managed a small 0.8% gain across the week, whilst Silver actually declined a net 1.8%. Mid-term outlook remains...dire.


GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow

Summary

Next week will be another important week for the precious metals. Both Silver and Gold are sitting on the edge of breaking the near term weekly down channels.

If the metals can claw just 1-2% higher by the end of next week, underlying downside momentum - at least in the immediate term, will have stalled.


Further downside..more likely than upside.

As it is, the daily charts are looking extremely vulnerable to a rollover, and best guess, is that the metals will indeed break/snap lower at some point next week.

*mid-term targets remain unchanged, with GLD in the 90s, and SLV 12/10

Metals holding within bear flags

Whilst the main US equity/commodity market traded a touch higher, the precious metals saw significant weakness. Gold and Silver saw daily declines of 1.3% and 3.5% respectively. Near term price formation is a very clear large bear flag, and lower levels seem very likely.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The Fed/Bernanke did nothing to inspire the precious metals today, even though the market appears confident that QE will continue into summer 2014.

We have very clear bear flags on the daily charts for both Gold and Silver, and much lower levels are supported by the bigger weekly/monthly charts.

Mid-term targets remain Gold $900s... Silver $10

A strong week for the metals

With Bernanke assuring the US capital markets that QE is not ending any time soon, most asset classes are still rising, with Gold and Silver both climbing by around 5%. Mid-term trend however is still starkly to the downside.


GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow

Summary

So..a 5% gain for both Gold and Silver, and no doubt the gold bugs are once again going to get overly excited that 'the floor is in'.

No..I don't believe so. The mid/long term trends remain severely bearish, and we've not even broken back above any of the old broken support levels.

Even if the floor was in, it is going to take many months to have even an initial idea that the down cycle since spring 2011 is over.

Long term downside targets remain unchanged, with GLD 90, and SLV 12/10.

Metals sharply higher on Bernanke comments

With both the equity and commodity markets being reassured by Bernanke that QE will continue, Gold and Silver saw significant gains for the fourth consecutive day. Gold closed +$32 (2.7%), with Silver +98 cents (5.3%).


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Interestingly, despite the four day ramp, both Gold and Silver remain within what are still very valid large bear flags.

Regardless of the near term price action, weekly/monthly cycle charts remain VERY bearish.

Mid-term downside targets remain unchanged, with GLD 110/100, SLV 15/12.

Weak metals

Despite an initial spike on the latest release of the FOMC minutes, the metals failed to hold most of the gains, and are still generally weak. Gold managed a $3 gain, but Silver actually closed in the red, -8 cents (0.4%). Near/mid..and long term trends look dire.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The metals try to bounce..but really..the gains are never very much, and nor are the metals able to hold them for very long.

The daily charts for GLD and SLV both look dire, with regular bear flags...being confirmed with sharp gaps lower.

Near term outlook for Gold and Silver remains bearish, with GLD 110/100, and SLV 15/12.

Metals end on another down note

With the jobs data coming in better than expected, bond yields jumped, the USD soared, and that put renewed downward pressure back onto the precious metals. Gold and Silver both closed significantly lower, falling 2.2% and 4.3% respectively. Near term trend looks weak.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Multiple downside pressures continue on the precious metals, the continued strength in the US Dollar is no doubt a primary catalyst.
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With the weekly/monthly trends still suggesting much deeper lows to come, those looking for some kind of multi-month cyclical low, probably have a very long time yet to wait.

Broad trend remains lower

The recent few days of upside in the precious metals, hsa done nothing to negate the broader weekly/monthly down trends. Baring a break back above the April snap levels - GLD 145, SLV, 25s, the metals are still looking exceptionally weak.


GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow

Summary

There continues to be a lot of chatter out there - not least in the Gold bug community, that 'the low is in'. Really? Weren't there a lot of calls that the low was in back in March and April?

Neither Gold or Silver are close to breaking above the important snap levels of April. Even if the metals managed to claw that high, that would still not break what is an extremely powerful down trend - as seen even better on the monthly charts.

The primary down trends do unquestionably continue, and the next targets remain GLD 110/100, with SLV 15/12.

Long term 'best bear case' is somewhere in the GLD 90s, with SLV 12/10, although those levels might not be hit until 2015.

Gold gains again, but silver lags

With the US markets beginning Q3 in a somewhat bullish mood, it was no surprise to see some follow through to the upside for the metals. Gold closed +$20, but Silver actually closed fractionally lower. Bigger weekly/monthly trends remain...dire.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Indeed, it was notable that Silver - usually a 2x mover relative to Gold, failed entirely to hold opening gains. The lagging silver is probably just a reminder that the underlying trend remains to the downside.