A lousy month for the metals

Whilst US equities rallied for another month, commodities remained weak, and this was especially the case for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of a very significant -5.5% and -8.75% respectively. The outlook for the remainder of the year is still bearish.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

Regardless of whether you agree with the wave count on the above charts, the primary trend remains starkly to the downside.

Considering the November close, December will very likely see further falls.

Near-term downside remains..

SLV 17, which might equate to GLD 110 - that is another $100 lower for spot Gold prices.
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Mid-term targets: SLV 12/10..with GLD 105/95..sometime in 2014/early 2015

Underlying weakness

The bigger weekly and monthly bearish trends continue to assert themselves, with the precious metals still generally weak. Gold and Silver closed the pre-holiday session -0.3% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is very bearish, with significant downside (5/10%) to come.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3, H/S

Summary

Another weak day..and the down trend continues.

Near term target remains SLV 17...perhaps even 15..if there is mild panic into end year.
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*I am short SLV, seeking my next exit in the 18.60/50s.

Minor chop to start the week

The metals were very weak in overnight Sunday action, opened lower..but there really wasn't any power on the downside. Gold and Silver battled back across the day, settling +0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The broader trend remains to the downside though.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

With both Gold and Silver having taken out the rising neckline - as part of a H/S formation, today's minor gain has to be seen as just that...minor noise.
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The bigger mid-term trend remains very weak.

*the fact that the Gold miners - see ETF of GDX, broke the June lows today, was arguably another bearish aspect to the broader outlook for metals.

Yet another bad week for the metals

After a two week bounce in early October, the metals have been on the slide. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -3.6% and -4.4% respectively. The June lows are now easily within reach, and have a high likelihood of being broken before year end.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So..another rough week for the precious metals...and that makes a general down wave now four weeks in duration. There is no reason why we won't see another week or two to the downside into early December.

Indeed, the real question is how will the metals react when they test the June lows? Considering the price action/structure, I think there is a very high likelihood that the metals will break new lows before year end.

Most bearish case right now..end December: GLD 105, SLV 15.

A more 'conservative' case is for GLD 110, with SLV 17.
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*I am short SLV, from 19.23...seeking my next exit in the mid/low $18s next week.

Minor bounce before the next wave

The metals were very weak across the day, with Gold and Silver closing mixed, -0.15% and +0.57% respectively. The mid term trend remains strongly to the downside, and further significant declines are expected into year end.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

So..a bit of a pause day for the metals, and we saw a fair bit of price chop. There looks to be a viable chance of brief upside early Friday..before the primary down trend..resumes.

Near term primary targets are GLD 110    and SLV 17

Mid-term targets are GLD 105/95, and SLV 12/10...and those might not be hit until much later next year.
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*I will be looking to pick up another SLV-short position, early Friday, somewhere in the 19.35/45 zone..if possible.

Downside exit would be the low 17s..within the next week or two.
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Another rough day for the metals

The broader down trend continues to assert itself, with the precious metals opening weak, and seeing significant weakness across the day. Gold and Silver closed -2.3% and -2.5% respectively. The June lows look likely to be taken out within the next few weeks.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily'3

Summary

Little to add....down trend continues.

The June lows look likely to be taken out, which will really be a bust to the mining stocks..and GDX.
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Primary target remains Gold 1050/950...with Silver 12/10.

*the near term H/S formation on Silver - which also applies to Gold, looks good for further significant downside.

SLV 17....and then 15...before year end..very viable.

Starting the week on a downer

Whilst the equity indexes broke to new highs, the precious metals opened moderately weak, and saw declines build across the day. Gold and Silver closed with rather significant declines of -1.1% and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook remains very bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily'3 - H/S idea

Summary

Holding to all earlier targets.

I favour a H/S formation/theory, and am looking for SLV in the 17s soon...probably before year end.

SLV 15s..might not be viable until April/June 2014.

Regardless of the short term moves..the broader trend is very weak.

Metals are weak for a third week

The metals managed to close above their lows of the week, but still..it was the third week of general weakness, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.02% and -3.33% respectively. The metals look very vulnerable to further downside in the next week or two.


GLD, weekly'2, rainbow

SLV, weekly'2, rainbow

Summary

A quiet end to the week for the metals.

The mid-term trend remains starkly bearish, and underlying MACD (green bar histogram) looks very weak, with a possible major snap lower in the next week or two.

I continue to believe the June lows will not hold.

Moderate bounce for the metals

With the US market again starting to get overly excited at the thought of continued QE - via Yellen, even the precious metals managed a bounce. Gold and Silver closed with gains of 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. Near term broader trend remains very weak, and much lower levels seem likely next week.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say...today was probably just a bounce...resetting the smaller 15/60min cycles which were heavily oversold in recent days.
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The June lows look set to be taken out at some point...whether it is within few weeks..or a few months.. it really doesn't matter.

Mid-term targets remain

GLD 105/95
SLV 12/10

Gold following Silver to the downside

The near term trend has been weak, and Gold has now followed Silver, in taking out the rising support from the June lows. Gold and Silver both closed lower by -1.1% and -2.9% respectively. Further significant downside seems likely in the weeks..and months ahead.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, the metals are indeed weak, with Silver leading the way lower.

With the mid term outlook on the weekly/monthly charts remaining deeply bearish, I expect the June lows to be taken out.
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mid targets remain GLD 105/95, with SLV 12/10.

*the lower commodity prices of course have serious implications for the miners, with the mining ETF of GDX similarly likely to break new lows.

A second weekly decline

Whilst the US equity market saw some interesting swings, the precious metals saw general weakness across the week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.1% and -1.8% respectively. Mid term outlook is very weak, and the June 2013 lows look set to be taken out within a few months.


GLD ,weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The second consecutive weekly decline for the metals, and it sure doesn't look bullish in the immediate term. Indeed, ALL key cycles are now bearish...daily, weekly, and monthly.

Silver looks to have broken its support on the daily charts...and if GLD fails to hold the 122s, then there is high chance of a major snap lower...even a 'Sunday night surprise' giant gap lower.
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Mid term targets remain GLD 105/95, with SLV 12/10.

Precious metals on the edge

With the ECB reducing rates..and US GDP coming in better than market consensus, the metals got whacked in pre-market trading. Gold and Silver were weak across the day, both closing lower by 0.5%. Near term trend looks very...shaky.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, the metals look very much on the edge of a major snap lower. The underlying price momentum is bearish in the immediate term...and there remains mid/long term momentum that remains  deeply negative.
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Silver looks especially prone to a drop back below the $20 threshold.

Near term downside...Gold -$40 to the GLD 122 level, which looks viable, as early as tomorrow.

Metals see moderate gains

The precious metals managed to hold onto moderate gains, with Gold and Silver both closing higher by around 0.5%. Near term trend is rather choppy, but there remains an underlying strongly bearish weekly/monthly down trend.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The metals remain in a rather tight range.

Near term..moderate upside is viable...but there remains very negative price momentum on the bigger weekly/monthly charts.

I hold to my mid-term outlook...

A break of the June lows...with spot Gold prices in the 1050/950 zone...along with SIlver 12/10...sometime in 2014/early 2015.

Significant weekly declines for Gold and Silver

Whilst the main equity market broke to new highs, the precious metals market saw renewed declines this week, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -2.65% and -2.95% respectively. If GLD fails to hold the 121s, then the June lows will likely be challenged before year end.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The precious metals continue to have all sorts of problems.

We've had two strong up weeks, but now...a very significant weekly decline, and once again, the metals are in danger of renewing another major push lower..to take out the June lows.

With the USD starting to strengthen, that had only added to the mid-term downside weakness.

Again, it has to be said, the weakness being seen is especially remarkable, considering the Fed are throwing 1 trillion of new money at the US capital markets each year.
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Mid-term downside targets remain unchanged, with GLD in the 105/95s, and SLV 12/10.