A monthly bearish reversal

Whilst the broader US capital markets ended the month on a positive note, the precious metals ended on a down one. Across the month, Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -3.0% and -6.5%  respectively. The monthly close was an especially bearish reversal candle.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

The net monthly decline bode badly for the rest of the spring..if not much of the summer.

The big question that many will now be asking is whether the December/June 2013 lows are going to be broken below.

That is a very difficult question to answer, but based on the broader trend since 2011, my best guess would be...yes...new lows are coming.

I hold to a broader downside target of Gold $1000/900s, with Silver $12/10.. by mid 2015.

A second bad week for the metals

The precious metals started the week on a bearish note, and were weak across the trading week. Gold and Silver saw very significant net weekly declines of -3.0% and -2.5% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, especially if the USD continues to hold steady..or even climb.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Last week was a pretty clear reversal, and that has been entirely confirmed with some significant downside follow through.

Gold and Silver are both on the slide, and we're back to the question of whether the 2013 lows are going to be broken.

All things considered, I hold to my original outlook, and look for a capitulation low in Gold, somewhere in the $1000/900s, with Silver 12/10. All those who are hyper bullish Silver..should go stare at a Copper monthly chart for a few hours.... it ain't bullish.

Metals resume the slide

After a minor Tuesday gain, the precious metals resumed the declines from Monday...and indeed, also from last week. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -0.7% and -1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, and the weekly cycles are looking especially weak.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, the near term sure looks weak. Whether the lows of last year are taken out 'soon'...that is too difficult to ascertain.

The monthly close..will of course be important. Anything <$1300 Gold..would be very bearish for the late spring/early summer.

Bearish start to the week

The precious metals opened weak, and saw significant declines build across the day. Gold and Silver settled with net daily declines of -1.8% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for further weakness, with the bigger weekly cycles warning of real trouble.


GLD, daily

SLV,daily

Summary

*Gold is on the threshold of attaining a golden cross this week..unless the declines continue.
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Suffice to say, we have clear breaks of trend, and with the weekly cycles rolling over, the near term outlook is especially bearish.

Rough week for the metals

It was a rough trading week for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly declines of -3.4% and -5.3% respectively. The weekly closing candle was pretty bearsih, and bodes for further weakness into end month.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Silver remains laggy, and unlike Gold, has yet to break out. This weekly close is particularly bearish, and a test of the last 2013 lows is now back on the menu.
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Regardless of the mid-term action,  I remain highly suspicious that the metals will see another major wave lower, with an eventual multi-year low of Gold $1050/950, with Silver 15/12, no later than mid 2015.

Post FOMC metal declines

Gold and Silver closed lower for the second consecutive day, with declines intensifying after the FOMC decision to cut QE by a further $10bn a month. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -2.0% and -1.1% respectively, and look vulnerable to further weakness into the weekend.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say...near term weakness, but so far..the mid-term trend for both is still bullish.

Metals cooling down

With a quiet weekend in the Crimea, US markets were in a calm mood, and that saw the precious metals cool down from their recent gains. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.0% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, but with a very bullish 'Golden Cross' due for Gold.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*Silver remains noticeably laggy, and is still below the Oct' high.
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It would seem that whilst there is increased geo-political tension, the precious metals will continue to claw higher this spring.

This will be especially impressive considering the current weakness in Copper prices, now holding under the important $3 threshold.

Strong week for Gold and Silver

Whilst the main market saw increasing weakness, there was some very notable strength in the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 3.1% and 2.7% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, and there is now threat of a continued ramp to $1500 Gold and Silver $25/26


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Silver remains notably weaker than Gold, but then, this is to be expected, as it is more industrial in nature, and benefits less in terms of a 'fear trade'. Considering the break <$3 in Copper, the gains in the metals are probably more stronger than the weekly gains would at first suggest.
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Regardless, Gold and Silver are indeed climbing in the near term, and look set for further gains, especially if geo-political concerns increase this spring.
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*however, let me be clear,  barring a few monthly closes >$1500 Gold, I'd still expect a marginally lower low in 2015..perhaps down to the Gold $1050/950 zone.

Metals continue to push higher

With continued general weakness in the equity market, the metals are probably gaining (at least partly) on a 'fear trade' basis. Gold and Silver settled with gains of 1.5% and 2.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, with next upside target of GLD 137 - around $50 higher for spot Gold.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, the metals are battling higher..although Silver is still much weaker than Gold, but is catching up.
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I'm still largely dismissive that a grand multi-year low is already in, the only thing that'd get me to drop that outlook would be a monthly close >$1500 Gold.

Mixed week for the metals

It was a bit of a choppy week for the precious metals. Despite some gains to begin the week, there was some sig' downside on Tuesday and Friday. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +1.25% and -1.30% respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, Gold remains significantly stronger than Silver - no doubt due to it benefiting more in terms of the 'fear trade'.

The weakness in Silver is still a great concern I have, despite the strength in Gold. Similarly, Copper remains broadly weak, and if it loses the $3 threshold, then the precious metals will be in dire trouble.
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I remain resigned that Gold will still eventually have to test the big $1000 threshold, before the current multi-year decline is complete.

Metals start the week strong

With the US and World markets having geo-political concerns between Russia and Ukraine, the precious metals caught a strong bid in terms of the 'fear trade'. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of 2.0% and 1.3% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Interesting gains to start the week, and we're back to the levels seen last October.

Gold is again benefiting more than Silver...purely on the basis of the anti-currency 'fear trade'. Otherwise, the old 1.5/2.0x ratio would have seen Silver +3/4%.
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For those bullish the metals, the big target now should be a weekly close above the October peak.