Mixed month for the precious metals

It was a very mixed month for the precious metals. Whilst Gold initially caught something of a 'flight to safety' bid, Silver remained generally weak. Gold and Silver saw net monthly changes of +0.6% and -3.0% respectively. Outlook for May, and the early summer, is bearish.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

*I would not get overly fixated on the counts as labelled on the above two charts. What matters is that the primary down trend is holding.
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Suffice to say, the precious metals remain in broader down trends.

I still hold to a mid-term downside multi-year floor for Gold in the $1050/950 zone, which will probably equate to Silver in the low teens, if not even the 12/10 zone.
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Minor weekly gains

The precious metals saw minor weekly net gains, having reversed from an early Thursday morning low. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net gains of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Despite the gains, the broader trend remains to the downside.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, this week could merely be a pause week, before the next major weekly decline.

The FOMC look set to announce QE-taper'4 next Wednesday afternoon, and frankly, I'd be rather surprised if the metals don't see another major smack down.

Weekly MACD cycles look prone to going negative cycle - with a bearish MACD cross next week, and if the metal bulls can't break the recent highs.... a big down wave looks very probable.

A stark opening reversal

Whilst equities flipped to the downside in the opening 30mins of trading, the precious metals snapped sharply higher. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of 0.6% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is however still bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*I am short SLV, seeking a break of the 2013 lows (SLV <17.75) within the near term.
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Today's opening reversal was on VERY heavy volume. The problem remains that the bigger weekly/monthly cycles remain bearish.

Indeed Gold tried to break above the 200 day MA..but failed.

With the FOMC set to announce QE-taper'4 next Wednesday, there will likely be renewed downside pressure on the metals.

Another day, another decline

Whilst the broader US capital markets were in a semi-happy mindset, the precious metals were once again on the slide. Gold and Silver saw net daily changes of -0.4% and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly weak.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

If GLD loses the 122s, then another $40/50 lower for spot gold.
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Despite today's minor net gain, Silver remains especially weak, not least with Copper hovering around the $3 threshold. I'm still inclined to see Copper falling to 2.25/00. If that is the case, it'd put extra downward pressure on Gold and Silver.

Metals begin the week on a down note

Whilst the main US capital markets were largely trading in a semi-holiday style, there was notable weakness in the precious metals. Gold and Silver settled lower by -0.4% and -1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say..the near term..and broader term down trend....continues.

It would seem just a case of when...not 'if'.....the 2013 lows are taken out.

Weekly declines for the metals

It was a week of significant declines for the metals, although most of the declines were all attained on the Tuesday smack down. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.8% and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook remains weak.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, we're seeing some price volatility in the metals The week started with gains, but the Monday candle was a black doji - at gap resistance no less.

The rather giant opening gap lower for Gold of $35 was a real surprise to many, but then, the weekly MACD cycle has been rolling lower for a few weeks already.

Outlook is for underlying weakness..at least in the near term.

Metals snap sharply lower

With renewed concerns about weaker Chinese demand, the precious metals opened sharply lower, but saw a minor reversal/bounce develop across the day. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.8% and -1.7% respectively. With the break of bear flags, near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*despite a daily reversal (hollow red) candle for both metals, I'm still largely bearish. It would be very surprising if this was a one off down day.
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The bear flag on the daily charts has been confirmed, and we're on our way down again.

Today was day'1 of a down cycle that could easily last a good 6-8 trading days, taking us into end month.
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*Copper broke back under the key $3 threshold, and this bodes badly for the metals, but also the broader US equity market - not least the mining stocks.

Broader downside targets remain: Gold 1000/900s, with Silver 12/10.

Metals somewhat higher

The precious metals saw some strength across the week, with net weekly gains for Gold and Silver of  1.1% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is somewhat uncertain, with conflicting smaller/larger cycles. Broader trend remains to the downside.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Again, Silver is very weak, relative to Gold. Yet, even Gold is still struggling in many respects.

I am Still seeking broader downside targets of Gold 1000/900s, with Silver 12/10, no later than mid 2015.

Metals start the week on a down note

With the broader US capital markets starting the week in a somewhat sour mood, the precious metals saw moderate weakness across the day. Gold and Silver closed with net daily declines of -0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook appears very vulnerable to a sharp snap lower.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Price structure for the last two weeks is possibly a very large bear flag.

With the weekly charts rolling over - and the monthly cycle remaining bearish (since 2011)...the metals look especially vulnerable this week.

The 2013 lows look likely to be taken out, the only issue appears to be when...rather than if.
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All those gold bug maniacs still talking about 'dollar doom' and end year 'Gold $2000+'..are surely going to be real disappointed, much in the same way as they were in 2011, 12, and 13.

Minor weekly gains for the metals

Whilst the US equity market ended the week on a down note, the precious metals closed significantly higher, However, across the week, Gold and Silver only saw minor net weekly gains of 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. A few more days of a bounce, before renewed downside..probably.


GLD, weekly'2

SLV, weekly'2

Summary

Suffice to say, the gains are probably just part of a small bounce, that will end next week (Wednesday, FOMC minutes?).

The weekly 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) charts are sporting a second red candle, and this should give those buying the 'metal dip'..some concern.

Broader trend remains to the downside, and the 2013 lows look set to be taken out, the only is whether its this spring...summer...or even as far out as mid 2015.
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Mid-term targets remain Gold 1000/900, with Silver 12/10.