Powerful monthly gains for the precious metals

June saw respective net monthly gains of $71.50 (5.7%) and $2.19 (11.6%) for Gold and Silver - the strongest monthly performance since February. However, there remains huge multi-year resistance, for Gold at $1500, and Silver in the $25/27 zone.


Gold, monthly'2, with fib levels

Silver, monthly'2, with fibs

Summary

So, Gold gained $71.50 in June, and Silver gained $2.19. Those are certainly significant gains, but... we've seen these kind of gains before..as recently as February.

Price action since 2011 remains very weak, and unless we can string together another 3-4 monthly gains, I remain highly skeptical that these gains will not be reversed later this year/early 2015.


However, something for the hyper-bullish Gold/Silver bugs to note....

Copper, monthly

Copper has again managed to hold above the key $3 threshold. A move into the upper 3s.. would bode very bullish for the precious metals.
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My best guess remains unchanged... broader continued weakness into 2015.

That bearish outlook will get dropped on any monthly close for Gold above $1500, and with Silver >$27.

Another week of gains

The precious metals saw the fourth consecutive week of gains, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, and we do have rather clear breakouts of the mid term down trend.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The gains this week certainly weren't spectacular, but still.. gains are gains, and it bodes well for the late summer/early Autumn.

If the broader equity market is 'spooked' by geo-political issues in the second half of this year, then Gold especially will be prone to catching a very strong fear-bid.

Right now, I see 'best case' upside to around $1500, but from there, I'd still be seeking the 2013 lows to eventually be broken next year.

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*I have no positions in the metals, and would consider shorting Silver in the early Autumn, but only if the equity market has been knocked 15/20% lower with Gold close to the big $1500 threshold.

Strong weekly gains for the metals

It was the third consecutive weekly gain for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of a very significant 2.9% and 5.8% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, with the March highs to be challenged.. and likely broken.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Silver is leading the way in terms of a 'technical breakout', but Gold is now also following, with a powerful gain of $42 on Thursday.

The March highs look set to be broken this summer, the only issue is how high then?

The big $1500 for spot Gold would be a very natural upside target... and that would likely equate to $24 spot Silver.
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I still hold to broader downside in 2015 though.

Metals break powerfully higher

The precious metals have broken out of the mid term down trend, with a powerful break to the upside. Gold and Silver saw net daily gains of a very significant 3.4% and 4.6% respectively. Near term outlook is very bullish, and the March highs look set to be challenged soon.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

A clean break out of the down trend for Gold -  having followed Silver, and we're set for much higher levels in the near term. Both gains were made on very heavy trading volume.

I'd expect the March highs will be broken.
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However, to be clear, I am still looking for much lower levels into 2015. In the bigger picture, nothing has changed in my view.

Important gains for the metals

Whilst the main US markets were a little weak across the week, the precious metals built significant gains. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 1.9% and 3.5% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, although it will take hugely higher levels to suggest that a key floor is in.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... the action in Silver is especially bullish, and (depending on how you draw it), the break of trend that stretches back to the high in May 2011.
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As it is, I still hold to the original outlook. I find it hard to accept that Gold has seen a key floor in the $1180s, and I am still seeking a further multi-month wave lower.

Clearly though, we appear on a new multi-week up wave... that would be greatly 'inspired' if Gold could catch a fear bid - if general upset in the broader market.
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*for now, I have no positions in the metals, but I'd be curious to go LONG silver..if next week, Silver can manage further gains.. especially after the FOMC announcement.

Weekly gains for the metals

With US capital markets in a rather positive mood across the week, Gold and Silver managed net weekly gains of 0.2% and 1.1% respectively. The broader outlook remains bearish though, with the 2013 lows set to be broken..at some point.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, a week of gains for the precious metals, but the broader trend remains weak. Both metals remain pretty close to breaking under the 2013 lows.

Whether the break is this month, July..or even not until next year, I have zero interest in being LONG the metals - or mining stocks, until Gold tests the low $1000s..or even 900s.

Metals melting lower

The precious metals started the week...weak. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -0.6% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with a further 'relatively easy' $45/50 lower viable, for spot gold prices. The 2013 lows look set to be broken.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Ugly charts..daily, weekly, monthly.. ALL cycles are currently bearish, and again, there is talk in the mainstream of 'weakness for the metals across June'

I'd agree with that, but if the 2013 floor is taken out - as I expect, then we're looking at Gold $1000..if not the low 900s at some point - although the latter is probably another year away.
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Without question, there is nothing bullish here, and I hold to the mid term targets.