Mixed month for Gold and Silver

Whilst the broader US capital markets saw increasing confidence across August, it was a rather mixed month for the two main precious metals. Gold saw a net monthly gain of 0.3%, whilst Silver declined by a pretty significant -4.5%.


Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

It is indeed highly notable that silver remains very weak relative to gold.

Reasons?

Well, Gold is clearly benefiting more from a 'fear bid'.. and lately of course we have had somewhat significant issues with Russia/Ukraine.

Second, there are clear deflationary issues - especially in the EU, and silver - being a more industrial metal, is suffering as a result.

Third, there is always the traditional silver/gold price movement ratio of 2-1. Although this past month of course, Gold actually managed an August gain, vs a -4.5% decline for Silver.
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*I remain resigned to my grander outlook that Gold will eventually test the giant $1000 threshold next year. That would probably equate to Silver in the low teens.. maybe even the psy' level of $10 an oz.

Without question, that would make for one hell of a buying level in 2015.

Bad week for the metals

There was noticeable weakness in the commodity markets this week, not least due to a USD that continues to claw higher. Gold and Silver saw significant net weekly declines of -1.8% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say...Silver remains especially weak, with the sixth consecutive weekly decline.

The 2013 lows look set to fail at some point...whether in the remainder of this year.. or 2015..it really makes little difference.

A break of the 2013 lows will open the door wide open to Gold $1000/900s, which should (in theory) equate to Silver in the low teens.

Silver remains especially weak

The precious metals saw another week of declines, despite some geo-political concerns into the weekly close. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.6% and -2.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Silver remains notably weak, having seen the fifth consecutive weekly decline. The 2013 lows are not that far away now..and if broken, it would bode for weakness not just in Gold, but in Copper..and the broader US equity/commodity markets.
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*I remain holding to the broader outlook in that Gold will eventually test the giant $1000 threshold.

Gold catching the fear bid

It was a mixed week for the precious metals. Whilst Gold saw a net weekly gain of 1.4%, Silver slipped for a fourth consecutive week, -1.7%. Gold is likely benefiting from a 'fear bid' via the increasing geo-political concerns.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

What seems clear... if Mr Market starts to feel calmer about the geo-pol issues - not least the Ukraine, then Gold is going to rapidly cool down, along with further declines in Silver

Price structure for both metals is a bull flag, and so long as the 2013 lows are not broken, there remains threat of upside - whilst the broader US capital markets are weak.

*I remain resigned to lower levels across the mid term, with Gold eventually testing the giant $1000 threshold.

Strong gains for the metals

The precious metals saw some significant gains, with Gold and Silver settling higher by 1.5% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is now bullish, although with a rising USD, that will be a major downward pressure.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*typically, Silver will trade 1.5 to 2.0x the change in Gold. Today's ratio was effectively the opposite, and it remains a case that Gold is catching a 'fear bid'.. via the underlying geo-pol issues.
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Suffice to say, metals were a somewhat surprising aspect of the US capital markets.

Why did Gold do well today, rather than in recent days?

It is a difficult issue...and the fact that the US dollar saw further gains, makes the Gold gains... somewhat odd.
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Regardless of any near term upside...the broader trend remains weak.

A third week of declines

With the US capital markets getting somewhat upset in the latter half of the week, the precious metals failed to catch a 'fear bid'. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.1% and -1.8% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Considering a basket load of geo-political issues, the metals are failing to capture any 'flight to safety/fear bid'.

With a third consecutive weekly decline, the metals remain in trouble.

Notably, Gold and Silver are both trading at/below their 200 day MAs, and the immediate outlook is for further downside.
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*I remain resigned to much lower levels in the mid term, with a test of the giant Gold $1000 threshold.. which might equate to Silver in the low teens.. perhaps even $10 an oz.