Metals in free fall

It was a very bad week for the precious metals, with Gold unable to hold the 2013 floor of $1179. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -4.8% and -6.1% respectively. Across the month, Gold and Silver slipped by -$37 (-3.1%) and -$0.86 (-5.1%) respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*an update on the monthly cycles...

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

--
Silver has lead the way... and Gold has duly followed, losing the 2013 floor. The door is now wide open to the giant Gold $1000 threshold.. which looks likely to be tested before year end.

For me, the only issue is whether Gold will eventually see a further low after a bounce from around $1000. The $900/875 zone remains a viable multi-year floor by late 2015/early 2016.


Grave Implications for the miners

If you believe in $1000 Gold, then it bodes for a further 25/35% off most mining stocks in the relatively near term.

Metals falling.. with the end of QE

With the Fed announcing the termination of QE3, the USD resumed the climb, and that put extra downward pressure on the metals. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.4% and -0.8% respectively. Near term offers a crash wave of 10/15% across November.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say.. the broader trend remains very weak.

Primary target remains Gold $1000.. with Silver in the low teens... if not 12/10 by mid 2015.

Moderate weekly declines

Whilst the US capital markets continued to feel calmer, the precious metals mostly saw minor chop.. with a touch of downside. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.5% and -0.6% respectively. November offers a severe wave lower.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, a minor week of chop for the metals.

Silver is leading the way lower, having already broken the 2013 lows. Gold looks set to follow.
--

Price structure is similar to spring 2013, and there is a viable further severe wave lower in the near term.

I've little doubt Mr Market wants to bring Gold down to test the giant $1000 threshold. A few out there are seeking 900/875, where the 61% fib retrace is.

Mixed week for the metals

Whilst US capital markets saw some turbulence, the precious metals were somewhat mixed. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +1.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a continued moderate bounce, but broader trend remains very bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, considering the significant weakness in US capital markets across Mon-Wednesday, Gold failed to catch much of a 'fear bid'.

Silver remains naturally weaker of course, along with the rest of the commodity market.

Metals catch a weekly bounce

Whilst the broader US capital markets saw some pretty wild swings, the precious metals managed to show the first strength in some weeks. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of  2.6% and 3.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish... but the broad trend remains sternly bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV ,weekly

Summary

Silver has of course broken well below the 2013 lows... whilst Gold has only fractionally and briefly traded under the December low.

Regardless of any moderate multi-week up cycle in the remainder of the year... Gold looks set for $1000/900s next year... along with Silver in the 12/10$ range.

.... if correct... it has grave implications for the mining stocks.

Just another down week

Whilst the broader US capital markets saw some mixed action, there was continued weakness in commodities. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of a significant -2.1% and -4.6% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV' weekly

Summary

With the USD continuing to soar on what might not be a multi-month up wave, but a massively important multi-year one... commodities are naturally under downward pressure.

Primary targets remain unchanged...

Gold $1000/900
Silver $12/10

... which if correct, will have grave implications for most mining stocks.. even if the broader equity market continues to rise.