Metals still broadly weak

Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $6.30 (0.5%) and $0.59 (3.6%) respectively. However, the broader trend from 2011 remains bearish. The Nov'2014 lows still look set to be taken out this summer, with primary target of Gold $1000, along with Silver 12/10.


Gold, monthly2, with fibs

Silver, monthly2, with fibs

Summary

*weekly MACD cycles (not shown) are rolling over again, it bodes for renewed weakness in June.
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Suffice to say, despite May gains, the precious metals remain within the broader downward trends from 2011.

Indeed, it is now a full FOUR years since the May 2011 top for Silver. The 12/10 zone remains very much in range before year end.. and that would make for a drop of around 80%.

On the flip side.. to those going long later this year, just to get back to $49 Silver would take a rally of almost 400%, but that will clearly take some years.
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*for the record, I do actually believe Gold will break >2K.. along with Silver >50 (if not higher) eventually. For the moment though... there still looks to be some further downside.. before it is ultimate buying time.

Metals pressured by King Dollar

With the USD settling higher by a sig' 1.4% in the DXY 97.30s, the precious metals were naturally under strong downward pressure. Gold and Silver settled lower by a significant -1.4% and -2.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*the bigger weekly cycle (not shown) is starting to rollover, and will be offering a break under the Nov' 2014 lows in June/July.
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Certainly, today was not a surprise...with Gold unable to hold the psy' level of $1200.
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Two scenarios...

1. USD pushes higher >DXY 100.... with metals unravelling in the near term
2. USD gets stuck in the 97/98s.. and cools for two months.. to 90/89.... with metals holding the floor.

Best guess? Tricky... but if I had to guess, I'd go with a re-cooling USD... if Greece can kick the can yet again.
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Regardless of any 1-2 bounce though... Gold still looks set for the giant $1000 threshold this summer/autumn.

One week up, one week down

After last weeks sig' net gains, the precious metals resumed lower. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.6% and -2.6% respectively. Broader price structure is a viable multi-month bear flag, with the Nov' 2014 lows set to be taken out.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

It remains somewhat bizarre how many of the Gold bugs have once again been issuing end year upside targets, some even > Gold $2K.

The broader trend from 2011 remains bearish, and current price structure sure does look like a large bear flag.

The US Dollar remains vulnerable to renewed downside to the DXY 90/89s. If that occurs, the metals might be able to hold together into mid summer.

Regardless of any June/July bounce, I am holding to original targets of Gold $1000, with Silver $12/10.

Significant net weeky gains

With the USD continuing to cool from the March high of DXY 100.71, to the low 93s, the precious metals were greatly helped. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of a rather significant 3.1% and 6.3% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, whilst the broader downward trend remains intact.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say.. it was a powerful week for the precious metals, but then... with the USD still falling, the gains aren't entirely surprising.

As things are. I do not see the USD going any lower than DXY 90/89 this summer, and from there.. the hyper-upside target will be the 120s.
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I hold to the original downside targets of Gold $1000, with Silver 12/10... which remain viable this year... not least if the USD can claw back to the big DXY 100 threshold.

Awaiting the floor to be taken out

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw a second consecutive week of gains, settling higher by 0.8% and 1.8% respectively. However, price structure since the Nov' 2014 low of Gold $1130 remains a very bearish H/S formation. The floor is set to be taken out in the near term.


GLD, weekly3

SLV, weekly

Summary

*I have been meddling a little in the precious metals this past week. Am currently holding short Gold - via GLD, across the weekend of May 9/10th... and look to remain broadly short all the way down to Gold $1000 (equiv' to GLD 95).
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Little to add.

Metals continue to broadly struggle. The last two weeks of gains do not in any way negate the mid term H/S formation.. and indeed.. I expect that to be confirmed with a floor break within the next few weeks.

Targets remain...

Gold $1000
Silver $12/10
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A key floor in the Aug/Oct' time frame... with a new multi-year up wave... as should be the case for the related mining stocks.

Price structure remains very bearish

It was a mixed week for the precious metals of Gold and Silver, with net weekly changes of -0.1% and +2.6% respectively. Price structure remains a very bearish H/S formation, and Gold still looks headed for the giant $1000 threshold... along with Silver $12/10.


GLD, weekly3

SLV, weekly

Summary

Price structure remains a very clear H/S formation, and in theory..  both Gold and Silver should take out the Nov' 2014 low this month.

A fast washout to the giant $1000 threshold looks very viable by late June.
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*I am seeking a key multi-year turn later this summer/early Autumn.... along with a floor in the mining stocks.