A fourth year of weakness

The precious metals - along with most other commodities, saw a fourth consecutive year of broad weakness. Gold and Silver saw net yearly declines of -$123.00 (-10.4%) @ $1060.20 (intra low $1045.40), and -$1.77 (-11.3%) @ $13.83 (intra low $13.62). Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.


Gold, monthly2, fib levels

Silver, monthly2, fib levels

Summary

Suffice to add, yet another year of pain for the gold/silver bugs.

It remains the case that the miners have kept on digging, even though prices continue to fall.

Lets get this quite clear.. there is yet to be capitulation within the precious metals mining industry. Until a significant number of mines are closed... prices are going to remain broadly weak
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Implications for mining stocks

If the precious metals do indeed remain weak for another 3-6 months (which seems a very realistic minimum), then the related mining stocks will be dragged lower... regardless of however strong the main equity market might be.

If Gold falls to $1000, then most mining stocks will lose another 10/15%.

If Gold declines to $900/875, then most mining stocks would implode by 25/30%.
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*I have eyes on over a dozen individual mining companies... but for now, there seems absolutely zero reason to get involved on the long side.

yours... still patient after four years.

Net weekly gains

It was a bit of a choppy week for the precious metals, but by the Thursday early close, Gold and Silver settled with net weekly gains of 0.9% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a moderate bounce into early 2016, but broadly... new multi-year lows look inevitable.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

We're still seeing sporadic little bounces in the metals, but such gains do nothing to the broader collapse wave that extends back a full four years.

The recent low for Gold of $1045 makes no more sense as a key low than $1232, 1130, or 1051 did.

Mr Market will surely want to wash the $1000 traders out. Further weakness to the 900/875 zone looks highly probable in first half of 2016.

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If the precious metals do break new lows, the related mining stocks will be seriously impacted, regardless of however strong the main market might be.

Mixed week for the metals

It was a rather mixed week for the precious metals, with net weekly changes for Gold and Silver of -1.1% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor bounce, but the mid term outlook remains broadly bearish... at least to Gold $1000, if not the 900/875 zone by summer 2016.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Commodities - especially the precious metals, remain within the broad downward trend from 2011.

For now... there seems little reason to be long the metals (paper or physical).. or the related mining stocks.

Renewed weakness

With the broader capital markets increasingly twitchy about the looming FOMC, the precious metals were also impacted. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.9% and -4.1% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed... with moderate threat of a bounce, but still within a broad downward trend.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... the more industrial Silver was particularly impacted, as deflationary pressure continue to seriously depress commodities.

The declines were arguably a lot weaker than on first look, as the USD saw a sig' net weekly decline of around -1.0%.
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*with broadly weak metal prices, the related mining stocks will similarly remain weak into 2016.. regardless of however strong the main market might be.

Bouncing from new multi-year lows

The precious metals ended the week on a significantly positive note, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly gains of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively. It is highly notable that Gold and Silver broke new multi-year lows of $1045 and $13.81 respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to note... the metals are merely seeing a short term bounce, having broken new multi-year lows.

I would give a probability of ZERO that the metals have seen a key floor.

Further declines look a given... at least to Gold $1000, and almost equally likely... 900/875.

*if correct, it will bode bearish for the related mining stocks.. regardless of however strong the main market is.